저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인을 장기적으로 강하게 보유할 가치가 있다고 주장하며, 개발도상국 통화 불안이 비트코인 수요를 키울 것이라고 봄. 비트코인·암호화폐: 개별 비트코인 관련 기업보다 기초 자산인 비트코인을 직접 보유하는 것을 선호한다고 밝힘. 브라질·인도·러시아·아르헨티나 등 통화 불안 국가에서 자본 접근성 욕구로 수요가 크게 날 것이라고 주장. 단기 가격 전망은 명시되지 않음. 헬스케어·웨어러블: 생체 데이터 수집·해석이 핵심이며 웨어러블 기기 시장이 성장할 것으로 봄. 애플워치 신형 바이오센서에 기대감 표명. 천식 흡입기 센서 등 실제 사례 소개. 데이터 생태계: 기업 간 데이터 사일로 해소는 표준화보다 일부 선도 기업의 공개 API 방식으로 이뤄질 것이라고 전망. 리스크: 통화 가치 하락과 정치·금융 불안이 비트코인 수요의 전제. 특정 기술 상용화 시기 불확실성 언급. 출연자 전망: 장기 낙관, 단기 가격 방향 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
and you can sit there and then nobody bothers you because you know they don't bother you that's right and most people don't think about it that's right I mean that's why I got an opportunities of hacking that's why I'm a huge fan of Bitcoin I mean I'm very very long Bitcoin people ask me you know Twitter I got into a long conversation with a guy over the weekend and you know he asked me what my favorite Bitcoin companies were and I said none I said you know right now you just want to own the underlying commodity like Google didn't choose to be in the USD you know US dollar business Google is a business that's amazing that just happens to get paid in u.s.
dollars similarly I'd rather own Bitcoin than try to find the onesie twosie guy at the edges right now now over the long history of time there will need to be on rents on ramps and off ramps and companies will be successful but in the short term owning that currency and allowing water to find its level particularly in the developing markets it's huge and if you don't think that this thing is gonna rip when Brazil goes to a devaluation when the Indian rupee continues to get crushed when you have all of this money trying to get in and out of these countries where there's massive you know political instability or monetary or financial instability you're being naive it doesn't matter what happens in the United States it doesn't matter what happens in Japan doesn't happen matter what happens in the EU doesn't matter it matters what happens in Argentina and Venezuela in Kenya and Brazil in India and Russia in a China and when you look at where all the activity is it's in all of those markets yeah this will be born out of a people's desire to have unfettered access to capital so again on that sociological theme that's another area which is I know friends bed their wealth stolen in some of the European countries right and that freaks out anybody else who has wealth in those countries and they start thinking about hopefully protect my wealth look at what the Nazis did during World War two it's disgusting you know if you have ways to protect and hide your wealth your hard-earned money you know I mean it's this I think it's a really profound important thing and so then the third thing is none of those things matter if you die and so I think there's this just fundamental precept that people have which is how do I understand my body better and how do I incorporate things into my life that allow me to live smarter longer healthier and yeah I just want I want better experiences that's fine but you can choose to optimize around that because you live in a country where you know your quality of life isn't gonna be materially different unless you're extremely sick right because they will find a way to solve it and you can make the bet by the way which is not unreasonable but most of the diseases that you are likely to get based on your specific genome can and will be fixed by the time you get them right and so you know you just have to make a bet in the next 35 to 40 years that stuff gets figured out and that's all wrong I saw a cancer sensor that could have saved Steve Jobs life he just more than 30 years too early right I mean you see cancer in your bloodstream yeah I mean well the tree I mean you people you you can see these DNA fragments in there very very early and if you can do the interpretation so like and in that third area you know I live I kind of like ten years that sensor by the way right now it's a I don't know if like a final camera Wi-Fi there's that same way right I mean I think like sort of like in that wearables if we want to go into that area for a second like to me they're like these three pillars of things that everybody cares about everyone wants to identify everyone wants to collect and everybody wants to interpret and if you find products that kind of like allow yourself to do those three things you don't have to be great it just has to be like well and the reason or even reasonably okay and the reason is because there's nothing that's come before it we're just so new in this world yeah I think it has a lot of legs somehow I'll give you an example right and it's getting better I mean I think you'll Bend is really pretty crude if you really look at the data yeah but the one coming out in September or in the next month or will be announced in the next month is much better much better and you know all the rumors we've heard about the Apple watch looks like it's a part biometric sensor as well as a watch and I mean if that comes out to be true then I think that's quite interesting you know that cooks on the board of it Nike - so he knows what's coming from Nike and he's gonna make sure that it works Nike this thing works great with Apple products right yeah how it works right so like take an example of you know we found this really great entrepreneur based in Wisconsin he was a professor at UW and he built a really simple Bluetooth sensor that sits on top of your asthma inhaler I know there's a lot of people with asthma no by the way asthma is increasing with the prevalence of all the foreign pollutants and particulars in the air there was a study I saw that like you know at one point in California 30 percent of the particulate was foreign and it came from China via the jet stream yeah and so you have these incidences where you know average temperatures are rising because of global warming fYI it exists second you have all this foreign particulate the byproduct of that a respiratory issues and they're becoming meaningful and they're compounding and that the downstream impact is that you basically get asthma attacks you can't breathe you have to go to the hospital etcetera etcetera so he said something very simple which is well why don't I just find a way to identify and collect this thing and I can interpret it for you and I can solve your problem so how does he do that simple blue tooth cap that sits on top of your asthma inhaler it works on all of them he's also launching a product that covers your advair - which is like the round one versus the more traditional pump and it works for people as maddux and we have a product that's coming up for COPD but you use it and over the course of a few you know days it's collecting data and it takes all that data and sends it into a model and all of a sudden what it does is now it starts to send you notifications and it says Jamal the pollen counts are high take a preventive dose before you walk out the door and guess what happens people do because you're not stupid people are smart and guess what happens they don't get asthma attacks they don't go to the hospital you prevent the emergency room visits you're not paying $5,000 your own pocket yeah it's so simple yeah you'd have a whole book a chapter in our book on what it's done for healthcare this sensors and wearable computers a machine learning and it's just so powerful beyond social pressure there's a company called kiyose that you play at work with a eight I think six other people on your team and they put pressure on you to go work out and yeah do the right thing there's a great company that hopefully you will go meet that I started with two younger kids I went to my college University of Waterloo and they were scheduled to go work at Apple actually of all things and an AMD one guy was gonna go to Apple AMD and I saw their fourth year design project and I said no way this has to be a company and what they built an it's extremely accurate EMG biosensor yeah and what we built is a product where you can you wear these sensors because they're woven into your clothes and into an extremely degree of tie detail you can understand all of your muscle exertion your power exertion all the major muscle groups how they're all interacting you could see it visualized in real time on your phone if you want it can show you imbalances it can show you how to prevent injury and show you how to rehabilitate I mean how much does that cost right now it's still it's not productizing we're gonna it is productized it's launching in the next few months yeah you will see yes something they will they will give you a shirt and shorts so that you can wear it it will blow your mind it's a few hundred ollars great for athletes it's great class it's great for people who want to prevent injury it's great for people who just want to know what's going on it's great for people who just want to be fit it's great for people who have a bad back and actually want to train their back a little bit better it's great for everybody you know it's great for moms it's great for it's great for everybody better living through sensors I mean I see a point like people really have it Layton I think desire to understand and to improve themselves in every facet of their lives right I mean like Google works because it's amazing because like we now are gonna have to go through an intermediary to get information because we have a Slaton to be informed and to be a participant of the world yeah why wouldn't that extend to your own physical being well cool now it's bringing thanks to the Guru last and then I'm wearing this class it brings me information before I even know I need it right when I walk through a geofence it says hey there's something there you should know about right field trip is that and you know and then we've talked about sort of like integrated plasmonics which to me is like the most the reason integrated plasmonics plasmonics so this is a company I think we talked about this briefly but it is the probably the single riskiest thing that we've done we've invested inordinate ly large amounts of money we'll keep doing it it may fail the likelihood is that it's going to work it's already working but I mean really work at scale and they've taken camera chip and they've refactor that into a little cube that can with a drop of your blood tell you what's happening inside your body you want to take a heart panel you want to take an enzyme test you want to test yourself at home to make sure that you can be the best you crowdsource all of these things figure out ways for people with your physiology your ethnicity your age you know your body mass composition how they've taken steps to improve their being with simple small changes understand all of that know that in real time yeah I think well I think we're kidding ourselves when we think like you know none of us care and like even if like we're really on I know I know I know there my wife lost 30 pounds with their Fitbit right and that's a very crude device compared to what you just described but but now imagine marrying those two things up ARCA you know our view isn't our view of the world is things like fit that are incredible the jawbone up amazing products that people Nike FuelBand but marry them with something that then also gives you insight to the inside of your body yeah right how do we go from this data silo world and talk about in a different context - you know we're all like my basis watch has my heartrate information and it's in one system and then you know my Google now knows when I searched and it's in a different system and Facebook knows what I liked this morning and it's in a different system and they're not really all hooked up together up I'm trying to hook them up with like if you know I have TTT and it's okay but it's crude and it feels like well I'll tell you how it's not gonna feels like a 1980s but Silicon Valley breadboard I'll tell you how it's not gonna work it's not gonna work via IFFT it's not gonna work by some open data collective you know marketing group that somebody spins up yeah with some working group and all this other crap I think it's gonna leverage body oh my god just you know let's all just shoot ourselves right now that stuff never works I think the way that it's probably gonna work is that a handful of companies who are leading the way basically say here's the way this is all gonna get published and we're gonna start first yeah and it's just gonna be a massive soup and you as a consumer should know that it's basically available and these are open api's they're not gated and you decide the n plus first app that you want to give access to it and it's there and I think that's probably what will happen and it'll probably take one or two years and he'll probably take some forward-thinking companies to do that but it's not gonna require some open data standard and any of that stuff it's just here it is yes ml spectrum there it is put it on github open source yeah and comes first and I think that's probably what's gonna happen and the reason is because the data in and of itself people will realize in version Envy one of everything people think the data is valuable and I think in v2 and beyond people realize the interpretation of the data is actually valid yeah and so you know are the photos and Facebook valuable to a degree I think the tags on photos in facebook make it invaluable in many ways because that metadata really binds and ties everything together otherwise you just have a trillion photos you wouldn't know which photo to show to which person right so if you if you think about it along those lines I suspect that what will happen is a few of these companies which shows tremendous such tremendous value and interpretation but then it'll be much easier for everybody else to basically say okay I don't mind being open here I don't mind sharing and I have to find a way to really differentiate myself okay so the fact that I walk 10,000 steps what does it mean who knows what it means nobody knows the longitudinal implications this stuff unclear but when you marry that maybe with an understanding of your physiology using the integrated plasmonics product and maybe you use you know the the sensor company and understand your you know your physical muscle I mean you put them into a model and some company says here's an interpretive way for you to optimize and be your best you know not for you to be Michael Jordan or LeBron James but for you to just be the best you know I think everybody wants them yeah that part a lot of people get you know even people who are couch potatoes like me I get that right where I think business people are missing the next tide is when you walk into the Ritz right now they don't know anything about you and soon they will yeah right now they have four computer systems running the Ritz right when to run the hotel when I run their main restaurant when to run their spa and when to run the small restaurant which is different it's a different computer system that runs their big recipe right big restaurants run by oh you don't solve this problem but in a different context so if you go into a casino and you're a known card counter yeah they can visually identify you from the security cameras they notice an alert they know to then go and notify you or to notify you know the pit bosses and they know the pit bosses to come over to talk to you the security people to come over and escort you out now that's a negative use case but the positive use case is Rob's global walks into the wind Wow he's been here five times he spent on average six hundred dollars each time he's been here let me go and greet him let me actually have someone take him on her line bring him to the concierge have him check in personally let me give him a coupon for $100 off you're absolutely right
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