저자: Daniel · 외국인
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GM·포드의 테슬라 슈퍼차저 네트워크 이용 제휴가 발표되며 테슬라 주가가 연초 대비 약 100% 상승. 테슬라 서비스·기타 매출이 전년 대비 60% 증가했고 제휴로 연간 수십억 달러 추가 매출 가능성. 현재 시총 약 9000억 달러 대비 향후 5년 연 20~25% 성장, 영업이익률 10~20%를 가정하면 수익률 불확실성이 크다고 봄. 기대 이상의 성장을 확신하지 않는다면 주식을 일부 줄이거나 매도하는 것이 낫다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Tesla stock has rocketed higher year-to-date 2023 up around 100 and clawing back a lot of the losses from last year you can see how in over the past year Tesla stock is actually closer to Flat the reason why it's jumped higher recently is on this news with General Motors where General Motors is partnering with Tesla so here's two competitors where General Motors is effectively saying yeah we need you for your supercharging network that's a big big announcement n this video we're going to talk about the announcement and what its potential impact could be on Tesla and where do I think Tesla stock could potentially go from here if you enjoy educational investment videos please make point of hitting that subscribe button so as we look at this headline you know General Motors talking about more charging stations less range anxiety more sustainable Journeys they're not the first ones to announce announce this partnership you also see Ford at the end of May similarly announce that they are partnering with Tesla to leverage their superchargers gaining access to 12 000 Tesla and North America supercharging stations so this is an amazing story of you know David slaughtering multiple goliaths where you know it's sort of this recognition that not only did you get in front of these you know behemoths but you also created a better technology and that's you know well well aware with the vehicles themselves where you're like wow look look at these really cool features but also the infrastructure for charging them faster better more reliable and so you're seeing this sort of admittance from the the Legacy providers the Legacy competitors saying we'd rather use your infrastructure and this isn't the first time Elon Musk has considered this path this has actually been well articulated for several years now back in 2021 they opened it up a pilot program their supercharger Network to other electrical Vehicles you know in Netherlands and he was actually saying this back in 2015 talking about how our supercharger network is not intended to be a Walled Garden so not just exclusive for Tesla it's intended to be available to other manufacturers if they'd like to use it you know he's talking about the only requirements that the other cars must be able to do is take the output of the superchargers and then pay whatever the proportion usage is and so he's looking to accelerate the Advent of electric cars really the sustainable future he's looking for sustainable you know future and the electrification of cars and this is an easy way layup way to do it and it's leveraging Tesla's infrastructure their supercharger Network that they've invested billions in over the last few years and so now you see GM why are they doing it well partly to save their own money you know where they're looking at it they're saying you know what this could have cost us you know you know 700 million dollars maybe a billion dollars instead we're going to save maybe around 400 million dollars in terms of building out our own network and just Leverage What Tesla already has this does create the possibility of using more of a standard the test standard the more North American charging standard versus the current industry standard of CCS we'll see how that plays out and it is interesting to think about what is the impact for Tesla stock where does it go from here what's the potential impact on Tesla's business first I recently just yesterday bought more of a stock that I think has over 300 upside potential expect to raise prices soon so now is the time to act if you'd like to lock in a favorable rate and take charge of your investment Journey that's so looking at the potential impact on Tesla you know previously Goldman Sachs had done some work trying to get you know a range of what the impact could be for the business they previously said look you know right now it's not really material but it could be you know maybe 25 billion plus in annual revenue for Tesla and they did some sort of chart looking at either the number of vehicles charged versus the number of Tesla superchargers and you know the more Tesla superchargers you have and the number of vehicles that are being charged uh then you could be getting you know closer to that 25 billion dollar figure the reality is right now Tesla is nowhere near you know having 500 000 you know superchargers what we're talking about is really closer to you know fifteen thousand uh in North America around 40 000 around the world so you know maybe you're talking about a couple billion dollars in terms of Revenue additional Revenue that you could be looking at from these Partnerships with GM and Ford I'm not looking at this as like oh you're going to double Revenue overnight I think this is an incremental Revenue over time that you're going to get with these Partnerships the question is what did the economics look like with that let's say a few billion dollars in incremental Revenue well one investor asked this question last year and Elon Musk responded saying look we're looking for around 30 gross margins around 10 operating profits or profitability all costs included that is an interesting figure because it does reflect a little bit of a lower margin than what they're currently at or what they previously were you know targeting last year you know you were looking at closer to 20 operating margins and you know with software they're expected to you know with with fully autonomous vehicles is expected to go higher over time you know recently it took a little bit of a dip with inflation costs you know where their operating profits closer to 12 percent but you know it's interesting for him to say hey 10 profitability versus you know what was previously 20 so clearly not looking to make this just a huge profit Center but they are looking to get compensated for the infrastructure that they've built out with around a 10 profit profitability figure we'll see how it ultimately shakes out but these are very rough figures talking about a few billion dollars in Revenue you know around 10 margin when I check in with AI ticker chat which leverages artificial intelligence to help answer you know investor questions the first month is free so once again that's AI ticker chat you know asking about you know Tesla's latest results trying to understand this potential impact you know in in 2022 they did around 12.6 billion dollars in earnings so thinking about this you know you're talking about you know an incremental boost to to potentially you know Tesla's results you're not once again you're not looking at something that's going to say oh this is a hundred percent different you're looking at you know 10 20 sort of benefit over time I don't think this is a hey this is this is this this war reference the stock going up 50 on this news but it is you know interesting to see how you know artificial intelligence called out how their services and other Revenue you know Tesla saw a 60 increase in their services and other Revenue which is you know why is this growing so fast because that's actually growing you know faster than you know other parts of their business like their Auto Sales you know a core part of their business and a bigger part of their business um why is it growing so fast well one of the reasons why is paid supercharging Revenue so I would expect to see their services and other Revenue line pick up you know with this announcement with the partnership with General Motors and Ford it's very curious to see how it ultimately impacts margins but you know that'll be in the quarters ahead when I think about Tesla's valuation and where do I think the stock potentially goes from here you know currently you know around 900 billion dollar market cap you know a bit shy of that uh thinking about its growth so far in the first quarter it was growing around 25 I'm giving them full credit for the year I'm saying hey maybe they actually get closer to 30 maybe these types of deals actually actually help accelerate their business you also have cyber truck you also just have a lot of cool stuff going on so let's let's assume 25 to 30 maybe that's too aggressive and let's assume 20 to 25 annualized growth in the years ahead and thinking about this and thinking about profit margins that are well above where they currently are because once again they're closer to 11 now and thinking about an end profit you know and Market multiple of let's say around 25 times earnings give or take about you know five give or take five let's say so 25 to 30 or 25 20 to 25.
you're looking at not crazy compelling returns effectively looking at a stock that maybe is up 50 to down 30 over the next five years now we'll be significantly more volatile but this is what I'd argue is a fundamentally driven framework to understand you know where could Tesla go in the years ahead now it's hypothetical of course Tesla stock can go way higher way lower you know but the key takeaway from this I think if you are a mega Tesla bull especially after seeing this dramatic 100 rally year-to-date is that if you own Tesla stock at this point you need to ask yourself am I highly confident it is going to grow faster than 25 over the next five years do I think it will have significantly higher than let's say 20 profit margins in five years from now versus closer to you know 12 percent in the first quarter uh and lower than that you know you know lower than 20 last year um so do I think margins will explode over the next five years do I think their growth will continue to compound you know where they'll go from you know a 80 billion dollar business last year to a 260 billion dollar business at least you know in five years from now and so only in that scenario where you're saying I'm very confident in 25 plus growth and by the way it should have a 30 times multiple of or above then you actually get some you know what I'd argue is a more reasonable or attractive return and of course this depends on you know the the execution this depends on sentiment if you know they whiff on execution if margins collapse and you know Wall Street penalizes them then I'd expect to see the stock price just absolutely plummet and if they do better than this then the stock price could do way better um but I I look at this and I'm thinking if you're a mega bull you need to be highly confident at this price that they're growing faster than 25 more than 30 times earnings and much greater than 20 profit margins in the future that is in my opinion you're that is hard for me to do I'm sure some people will be very comfortable with that assumption for me that's just too hard based on this recent rally I would be inclined to trim or sell if I own Tesla stock just because I'm looking at this and this is not a crazy compelling you know risk reward you know once again showing maybe 50 upside versus 30 downside and you know look of course things can overshoot where you know things get really crazy and things get really you know overvalued now clearly there's been a lot of execution here in and clearly this is a favorable fundamental update for Tesla like that should be crystal clear but it is important to recognize that in Wall Street you can have prices move faster than the fundamentals you can have instances where the price is fully expect fundamental Improvement and shoot well above it and Wall Street can take a good idea way too far and then your investment returns are actually worse over a few years so I I think that is an increasingly likely situation with Tesla as I look at this price run you know year to date if you have a different opinion or you think you have a highly confident perspective that they're going to grow in excess of 25 for the next five years I'd absolutely love to hear it in the comments below if you enjoyed this educational investment video personally for my own investment Journey I'm going to focus on things or it's it's easier for me to say hey you're already at these margins or you've already shown that you're at that you you could be at these margins and you know it's easier for me to underwrite you know growth because let's say they're growing at 20 and I'm saying hey they're just going to keep growing at 20 or lower the next few years and assume the multiple doesn't change and still get you know 200 300 upside that's personally What I'm Looking For on my investment Journey but I can understand other people you know taking the assumptions here and saying hey I just want to be on you know for this ride here because it's so exciting personally once again I would trim thanks so much for watching this video please make point of hitting that subscribe button
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