Equity markets are headed to new highs, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 증시는 신고가를 향해 갈 것이며, 강한 시장과 개선되는 실적·물가 흐름을 근거로 현재 랠리가 지속될 것으로 본다. 거시 환경: 고용비용지수(ECI)가 예상보다 낮게 나왔고 인플레이션은 둔화, 경제는 견조하다. 상반기 성장률은 2% 이상을 예상한 사람이 거의 없었다. 기업 실적: 기업 가이던스가 상반기 보수적이었으나 이제 자신감이 커졌고 실적도 양호하다. 시장 내부지표(breadth)가 개선되며 상승이 확산되는 중이다. 연준(Fed): 파월 의장이 양방향 리스크를 언급했고 회의마다 데이터를 보고 결정한다고 하여 긍정적으로 평가. 통화량 급감을 우려했으나 현재는 주거 등 선행지표 반영을 인지하므로 우려가 줄었다고 봄. 밸류에이션: S&P500은 향후 12개월 이익의 약 20배로 역사적 평균 수준. 기술주는 약 30배로 다소 높지만 과열로 보지 않으며, 장기적으로는 가치주를 선호한다. 닷컴버블(30배 이상, 고금리) 때와 비교해 현재 밸류에이션은 위험하지 않다고 봄. 반론 대응: 베어(약세론자)의 밸류에이션 우려에 대해, 기술주 일부는 과열 가능성이 있으나 시장 전체로는 큰 고평가가 아니라고 반박. 출연자 전망: 증시 추가 상승(신고가) 전망, 단기 조정 언급은 없음.

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01. whether there's enough momentum and earnings so far to keep this rally intact let's ask Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School he is live with us once again professors nice to see you again good afternoon Scott we heading towards new highs professor I think so I mean this is such a strong Market um uh you know you hear the the guidance from the firms that was so tentative uh you know in the first and second quarter a lot of it is so much more confidence uh the internals are improving it's broadening out uh the ECI uh you know that uh that the employment cost measure that chairman Powell mentioned a couple days ago came in below expectations as well as the others you know golden Glocks lower lower inflation and and stronger economy and uh good guidance and good profits what's to stop this market now no I don't know Jay Palin company maybe you think they're done I'm not sure that they're done but what I'm pleased about is that he acknowledges uh that there are two-sided risks that he's gonna every meeting is a live meeting there's no preconceived motion about whether whether they're going to go up or down they're going to look at the data which is something that you know I've heard for for quite a while you know frankly as you know I was very when I saw the money supply go down decelerate by the greatest amount in history I was concerned um uh I wanted I was worried about what was going to become in the economy in the second half and I'll tell you the first half I don't know anyone who thought that the first half would grow faster than two percent I would look back in my records uh even the FED uh was way below that in its estimate so uh inflation coming down stronger economy uh I don't see this stopping anytime soon do you think that the FED is is looking at the right thing I mean there are some who suggest that they're fixated on on lagging indicators and not enough on what's actually taking place on the inflation front the danger of course being that they end up going too far as a result you share those concerns well I did a lot earlier on um you know I still have trouble with this year over year because it's 11 months of old data and then one month of the new data and we all know how lagged the housing indicator which was uh you know still recording increases every month even though it's gone down year over year but I think now the FED gets that and they realize that uh uh there there are a lot of lags in that system and that they have to look at that forward-looking indicator so I'm less worried about that now than I was three or even six months ago the Bears would say and we're going to talk to one in a minute by the way and we're gonna have a debate but they would say that you know the the Bulls will come up with any excuse to justify valuations which are stretched they're stretched far past historical averages and given the environment we're in where earnings are still not great better than feared isn't good enough to justify valuations here how would you respond to that well you know the s p is is uh selling about 20 times next 12 months you know my research shows that that's about average I mean the the tech stocks are 30 the value stops the cyclical stocks so fearful that inflation are 14 15 16.

02. that's extremely reasonable so you know yeah you could argue that the tech the tech stocks may be a little bit over their skis and in terms of how far they've gone um and you know I would prefer the value stocks on the long run but when I look at this Market as a whole I do not see any significant over evaluation you know I think back in the.com bubble where the s p was selling over 30 times earnings in a much higher interest rate environment than we have today that was scary uh I don't regard today's evaluations of scary