저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 댄 아이브스는 팔란티어를 AI 분야의 '메시'로 보며 강세 관점을 유지하고, 목표가 25달러를 제시한다. 핵심 주장: 팔란티어는 AI 분야에서 아직 충분히 평가받지 못한 플레이어이며, 수조 달러 규모 시장을 수익화할 황금 경로가 있다고 봤다. 주가 및 목표: 당시 주가는 약 17~17.50달러 수준이며, 아이브스는 계획이 실행되면 목표가 25달러를 제시했다. 사업 근거: 우크라이나 전장 등 실시간 AI 활용 사례가 있고, 국방 중심 사업이지만 상업 부문으로도 확장 중이다. 기업 CIO들과 대화했을 때 AI 플랫폼이 필요하면 팔란티어가 먼저 거론된다고 설명했다. AI 산업 구도: 엔비디아와 마이크로소프트가 정상에 있지만, 2차·3차 파생 수혜주로 팔란티어가 주목받고 있다고 봤다. 주요 인물 발언: 알렉스 카프(공동창업자 겸 CEO)가 뉴욕타임스에 기고한 글에서 국가와 기술 부문의 긴밀한 협력을 주장한 점을 언급했다. 시장 참여자: 개인 투자자 비중이 높고, 기관 투자자들도 AI 기회를 뒤늦게 파악하려 하고 있다고 평가했다. 상업 부문: 대형 기술기업들의 긴축 속에서도 AI 예산이 내년 예산의 8~10% 수준으로 성장할 수 있으며, 데이터 보안 신뢰도가 상업 고객 확보에 유리하다고 봤다. 리스크/조건: 주가가 과대평가되어 있다는 점을 인정하면서도 낙관적 입장을 유지했다. 단기 주가 흔들림은 언급됐으나 구체적 기간 예측은 없다. 출연자 전망: 강세(목표가 25달러, 장기적 AI 수혜 관점).
다듬은 글
Dane, Messi in the world of AI . I mean, that's a very ambitious statement. I think that's exactly what Karp built. And in my opinion, the company has not yet been appreciated as a broader player in the AI field, so I consider them the “Messi” of AI. I think there's a golden path for them now to monetize what we see as a potentially trillion-dollar market opportunity.
And I think investors still haven't realized what this " golden goose" can become. Yes, as we just mentioned, stocks have been moving quite shakily over the past few months and since the beginning of the year. When you think about some of these new real-time AI applications, they're already being used on the battlefield.
Example— Ukraine. Palantir is a key example of this. Do you think this is a situation where investors don't fully understand what the company does, since most of its business is in defense technology? And yes, I understand that it is also expanding into the commercial sector. But there are many things they can't talk about, for example, due to secrecy.
This is the biggest misconception. I can say that we communicate with many people in the 202 area code. Palantir's reputation speaks for itself when it comes to any intelligence operations. If you're an enterprise CIO, and these are the conversations I've had, you're looking at an AI platform, then Palantir might be the first person you call.
That's why I think in this AI gold rush, which I think of as the fourth industrial revolution...Of course, Nvidia and Microsoft are at the top of the mountain, but when you look at the secondary, tertiary and quaternary derivatives, Palantir is in the spotlight right now , and that's why I think these stocks are worth considering under our bullish model.
I think eventually it's $25, and then, I think, as the plans are implemented, investors will start to pay attention to it. Wow, and the stock is currently trading at about $17 or $17.50. Steve, I'd like to hear your thoughts on this , especially since Alex Karp, one of the co-founders and current CEO of Palantir, wrote a very, I would say, long article in the New York Times about AI earlier this week.
Yes, both the comparison with Oppenheimer and the fact that this is actually a great opportunity. We hear so much— at least that's Karp's view—from the AI community about responsibility and safety, and he even gives examples from years ago when Microsoft employees were unhappy working with the military and Google employees were unhappy working on digital satellite imagery.
Uh, he seems to get it . I just want to highlight one quote from this. He calls for, quote, " closer collaboration between the state and the technology sector," comparing it to what Oppenheimer did, if you've seen the movie, or read the book, or studied history about working side by side with the government before anyone else does.
And he mentions the case of Ukraine. And I think, Dena, I was interested to hear your thoughts on this because there is also a certain nature of meme shares at Palantir. I'm curious to what extent this also affects your calculations. Yes, without a doubt. I mean, there is a huge presence of retail investors.
And I think that perhaps retail investors have been ahead of institutional investors in understanding the true potential of AI. I can tell from today's conversations that institutional investors are asking, "Okay, what am I missing in this story?" Where does the common market opportunity really lie?
And can they move from the public sector to the commercial sector? Because I think when you start looking at it, that's where the real opportunity lies for them. And if you are an IT director of an enterprise, there are no better reference accounts than those working in these two areas. But what does this look like in practice?
If you think about it, we know that what they do in the military sphere is very opaque. I'm just curious what it looks like from a commercial perspective? What do you see there? Especially considering they are increasing the number of customers and so on. What are you observing there? I would say that in terms of the scale of the platform and real use cases, they are probably the first to be approached.
I think they are probably the purest AI player in this market . Sure, they created it, others are catching up, but this only confirms our view that in this fourth industrial revolution, Palantir will be a big player. The first time I heard a big company talk about machine learning was from Palantir.
Yes. Yes. Yes. And of course, there are applications for, say, supply chains, which is an important area for many companies right now, as well as manufacturing applications. It's worth noting that when you work with the government, in a secretive manner, you have these high levels of access, particularly for cloud applications that only a few companies have.
Palantir is one of them. Um, you guarantee the security of my data. I'm sure that in itself has some credibility among commercial clients , as far as I'm concerned. But how does this happen against the backdrop of an unstable macroeconomic environment, when people are tightening their belts? As for belt-tightening—we started to see it at IBM, we saw it at Microsoft, Google, and others.
I mean, for big tech companies, we're seeing growth. After all, when it comes to AI, it's potentially 8–10% of next year's budgets. And I really think what you're saying about referral clients. You don't have to...You can sleep peacefully at night when Palantir ultimately owns your data in the context of using AI.
And they are the only ones working in this field. They proved it. Now they are proving it in the corporate sector, which is becoming increasingly important. That's right, and stocks are overvalued, so we are optimistic about them .
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