저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 미국 대신 대만·한국·인도 등 신흥국 중심 투자를 유지하며, 중국은 홍콩 상장사 위주로 조심스럽게 재접근한다. [투자 지역 배분] - 현재 해외(특히 신흥국) 중심으로 투자하고 있으며, 미국 자산에는 투자하지 않는다고 밝힘. - 최우선 순위는 대만, 한국, 인도 세 곳이다. [중국] - 올해 3월에는 중국에서 돈을 빼낼 수 있을지 우려했으나, 현재는 해결되었다고 함. - 중국 경기는 큰 조정기를 겪고 있어 기업들에 어려움이 클 것이라고 봄. - 홍콩 상장 기업들은 밸류에이션이 매력적이어서 주목 중. [대만·한국 기업 관점] - 대만·한국 기업들은 대중 수출 의존도가 높아 중국 시장 다변화가 필요한 상황. - 투자 포인트는 중국 사업을 하면서도 국제적으로 사업을 다변화한 기업, 그리고 뛰어난 기술력을 가진 기업. [대만 해협 리스크] - 워런 버핏이 대만 반도체 투자를 했다가 중국 침공 우려를 재평가한 사례를 언급. - 발언자는 가까운 시일 내 중국의 대만 침공 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 미국 시장 의존도 때문에 중국에게도 불합리하다는 논리. [한국] - 기술 수준이 매우 뛰어나다고 평가하며, 1960년대 폐허였던 국가가 고도로 발전했다고 언급. - 피부 관리 기계 등 기술 기업 사례를 소개. [인도] - 애플 등 기업들이 중국 공급망 이탈로 인도에서 아이폰을 조립하는 흐름이 나타남. - 14억 인구, 약 7% 성장률, 젊은 인구 구조가 강점. - 과거 인도의 주별 규제·관료주의가 문제였으나, 모디 정부가 관료주의를 줄였고 주 간 외국인 투자 유치 경쟁이 긍정적으로 작용한다고 평가. - 민주주의 특유의 복잡성은 있으나 성장은 매우 인상적이라고 결론.
다듬은 글
Mark Mobius joining us right now to talk about where he is putting his money to work. He's a veteran investor and founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners.
Mark, first of all, welcome. It's been a while since we've seen you. Do you have any money in the United States, or are you still looking internationally right now?
I'm all in international, and emerging markets in particular. In fact, I'm speaking to you today from Korea, and we have quite a lot of investments here in Korea. A few weeks ago I was in Taiwan. So Taiwan and Korea are really at the top of our list, in addition to India. Those are the three places where we're focusing.
Yeah, Taiwan, Korea, India. I've heard you even recently make some comments that China might be a good place to dip your toe back in as well, which struck me, because the last time we talked, in March, you were concerned about even being able to get your money out of China.
Exactly. That's been solved, thankfully. But now we're looking at China in very specific ways, particularly at Hong Kong-listed companies, because in terms of valuation those look very attractive. But China is, as you know, still going through a tremendous adjustment, and it's going to be very difficult for many companies. In fact, one of the things I'm learning here in Korea and in Taiwan is that these companies are also being challenged, because a lot of their exports go to China. Of course they want China to thrive, but at the same time they have to diversify their markets so they're not so dependent on China.
So that sounds like a lot of reasons to be really cautious. You want to go into these markets, but what in particular are you looking for? Companies that don't export to China, or companies that have gotten really good at finding alternative markets?
The latter. In other words, we want companies that do business with China, though it's very difficult for Taiwanese and Korean companies to get away from China. But we want companies that have diversified internationally, and we're finding a number of these companies with incredible technology, so they're able to diversify their investor base. So I think it's looking quite good, but we're going through an adjustment period, that's for sure.
Warren Buffett recently went into Taiwan's semiconductor company too. I think he thought the same thing: the technology there looked great. It looked like a bit of a key logjam if you're looking at chips. But he got out pretty quickly, because he reassessed the concerns about what would happen if China invaded.
I think if there was a China situation in Taiwan, that doesn't bother you?
No, I don't see that happening anytime soon. It just doesn't make sense from the Chinese point of view to attack Taiwan at this stage, because they'd of course get a lot of resistance. As you know, the Americans have built up bases in the Philippines and have given more aid to Taiwan, so it would be a very, very difficult situation. And if China attacks Taiwan, the U.S. market will disappear, and China depends on the U.S. market. So I just don't see that happening anytime soon.
So why Korea? What do you see there?
Technology. Incredible technology. It's really amazing to see the developments. I lived here in the 1960s, when this place was in ruins, and now you have a very advanced society with incredible technology in many areas. For example, we have one company that does cosmetic work with machines that treat your skin, so you lose your wrinkles. That's the kind of thing they're doing, and it's quite interesting.
Did you try the machines out?
Not yet.
All right, let's talk about India. You've focused on India for several months now and have been pretty positive. Is that a similar story with technology, or is something else happening there? Is India the beneficiary of companies looking to set up places to diversify from the Chinese supply chain?
Exactly. That's what's happening. You're seeing companies move to India, away from China, in order to first survive, with their investor base and supply base. Companies like Apple are moving to India to assemble iPhones, and that sort of thing. But more importantly, you have a population of 1.4 billion, which is more than China's, and a growth rate of about 7 percent, which is one of the highest in the world, plus a young population. All these factors are having an incredible impact, and now a lot of companies are waking up to the fact that India can become a very big supply base to diversify their supply chains.
Ten or fifteen years ago, I remember talking to CEOs, and the problem they would cite when it came to India versus China was that in India things are very different state to state. It was hard to get things done. In China, if you got the government's approval, you could move quickly, and it would apply across the country. What has changed? Has India's state-by-state problem, where it's difficult to do things across those different lines, changed at all?
You still have these problems, because each state has its own rules, and of course you have the national bureaucracy as well. But Modi has really cut away a lot of this bureaucracy with the aim of getting investors to come in and invest more. More importantly, there is competition between the various states in India to attract foreign investment. It's a very interesting development, one state against the other. That's great for foreign investors, because they can sort of play one against the other. And a lot of these states are waking up to the fact that they can really do a lot of good for their people by providing employment and growth. So it's a very interesting development.
Look, you're dealing with a complex society, a democracy. It's a messy situation, just as it is in the U.S. But the bottom line is that the growth is incredible.
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