The Fed shouldn't have raised rates again, says DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach

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한줄 결론: 건들락은 연준이 금리를 추가 인상할 필요가 없으며, 인플레이션이 이미 충분히 내려와 있어 이번 인상은 불필요했다고 본다. 금리 결정 평가: 연준이 다시 금리를 올렸지만 채권시장은 이미 99% 이상 인상을 반영하고 있었고, 25bp냐 50bp냐의 논쟁조차 없었다는 점을 지적한다. 수익률 곡선: 장단기 금리차(2년-10년)는 약 100bp 수준으로 여전히 역전 상태이며, 3개월물과 10년물 사이도 크게 역전되어 있다. 경기침체 신호는 역전이 해소(디인버전)되기 시작할 때 본격화되는데, 지금은 아직 그런 단계가 아니라고 본다. 소비자심리: 현재 상황에 대한 평가와 미래 전망 간 격차가 좁아지고 있으나 아직 충분하지 않다고 언급한다. 인플레이션: 헤드라인 CPI는 전년 대비 2.98%로 3%를 밑돌며, 근원 PCE는 향후 3~4개월 내 3% 아래로 내려갈 가능성이 있다고 본다. 헤드라인 PCE는 2%대로 내려갈 수 있다는 전망이다. 최근 20년간 근원 CPI 연평균은 2.0%라고 분석한다. 주거비 조정: 가구주 등가임대료(OER) 대신 실제 주택가격 상승률을 대입하면 헤드라인 CPI는 0%에 가깝다고 주장한다. 정책 권고: 연준은 데이비드 켈리의 조언대로 기계적 인상을 멈추고 승리를 선언하며 추가 인상을 하지 말아야 한다는 입장이다. 리스크: 지역은행 위기 이후 수익률 곡선 디인버전과 소비자심리 개선 여부가 경기침체 판단의 핵심 관찰 지표다. 종목/자산 언급: 특정 종목 매수·매도 언급은 없고 미국채 금리 방향에 대한 직접적 언급은 없다.

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01. and Jeffrey gunlock joins me now for a CNBC exclusive interview it's good to be back here in Los Angeles with you indeed welcome back it's been a long time it has we continue our streak of fed days with you your reaction to the decision when you were with me in June you said quote I don't think the FED is going to raise rates again yet here we are yep they raised again and obviously the bond market was way ahead of this I mean the warp function which gives you a probability from the shape of the short and the yield curve was over 99 and I don't think we've had uh one a meeting really since this all started where there's a unanimity of opinion that a there's going to be a hike but that there wasn't even any debate there was going to be 25 or 50.

02. so they're obviously slowing down the yield curve remains inverted it de-inverted there in the aftermath of the regional banking problem with svb and that was a real recessionary sign that was a element where the markets were getting pretty nervous because the recessionary signals really you get on a watch when the yield curve gets very inverted but as was brought up in some previous guests on your your network today it's when it starts to de-invert that you really get worried and that stopped happening once the the bank crisis calmed out so the D inversion is what you have to have to look for and it hasn't really happened I mean we're back out at about 100 basis points twos tens and we're really inverted from the three-month Bill to the 10-year Treasures we're watching for that we're also watching for the gap between consumers views of the present start to deteriorate and meet up with sort of the what they have the view of the future which is almost always on the pessimistic side it's kind of weird they always think it's going to be a little worse in 12 months that has started to narrow a little bit but not not enough yet so uh the other thing that's really important I think why I thought that the FED shouldn't wouldn't raise rates and I think they shouldn't have I kind of agreed with David Kelly who was on right before I think the statement was was announced that they've the right to be uh a reason to be careful here and we've been talking about this the last few appearances I did with you that inflation is coming down and you know the headline CPI went from 9.1 to I mean people say it's three but amazingly it actually has a two handle if you go to the two decimal points it's 2.98 and there's big numbers rolling off for uh the pce particularly the core pce in the next three to four months it's possible the pce could go down to a three handle on the core level uh really the this coming month because there's a big number rolling off and that the headline pce which no bigger like talks very much about but it could go down into the twos uh fairly soon so we believe that the inflation rate is pretty much where the FED should really be happy with where it's right now no I I did a funny study I said how what is we keep getting this rhetoric of the two percent average inflation rate over time do you know what the uh the core CPI average or the last 20 years per annum 2.0 percent it's exactly there so we're exactly there and and if you took headline CPI and replaced the owner's equivalent rent which is a big slug of the headline CPI if you replaced it with a actual home price movements from these indices the CPI would not be 2.98 on the headline you know what it would be zero if you replace owner's equivalent rent with home press appreciation so I think the FED uh should take David Kelly's advice and try not to uh you know just be on a pro programmatic sort of situation because the data seems to be getting a little bit better what I hear you saying is that the FED should declare victory in a sense out of this whole thing and go home that that they shouldn't hike anymore because they don't need to I don't think they do if that's kind of my point of view when we spoke last time