저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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Cramer는 데이터센터 관련 하락을 과잉으로 보고 마이크론·AMD·어플라이드머티리얼즈를 긍정적으로 봄. 분기 강세장과 모멘텀 지속 여부를 논하며, 월스트리트 낙관과 엔비디아 밸류에이션 압축을 설명. 마이크론 차트 지지선을 근거로 매수 권유, 이후 엔비디아 관련 생태계(마이크론·SK하이닉스) 대안 논리 제시.
다듬은 글
What about the decline in data center stocks that we're seeing, and part of that is a mistake that I think was made because of Meta's pivot to data centers. I like Micron the most. As I explained last night, the yield is eight times the earnings, but the price/earnings are much lower. I like it. I also think that Corning GLW shares, which have fallen, are the biggest underperformers of any stock in the entire SP500 today.
Well, that seems extreme. Fiber can replace copper and all those data centers. By the way, both in the connectors and, perhaps, even one day in the chips themselves, pulling out that hot copper. I like AMD this fall. I know it's not really that big of a drop, but you almost never get this opportunity to buy stocks with this combination of GPUs and data centers that are in high demand.
We recently had Gary Dickerson, CEO of Applied Materials, AAT, on the show, and his semiconductor equipment business is in a long-term bull market because of the widespread chip shortages that we keep talking about. It will take years and years to create enough of this equipment to alleviate the shortage.
Okay, here's one example. How about Walmart? Did you see that his shares fell 5% today and the stock closed down 3.9%? Do you know that he is at a loss for the year? The thesis is that oil will become cheaper, and gasoline will follow. So consumers will no longer need to shop at Walmart to save money.
I think this is nonsense. I know it's sometimes hard to pay 37 times Walmart's earnings, but this one is now down 26 points from its high. This seems excessive to me. What about you? By the way, the TGX reduction is really excessive. But the point is that while rotations don't end in one session, they rarely last longer than two or three.
Now is your chance to sell losing stocks at a premium and move into winning stocks at a discount. So often in this market you look back and berate yourself for not taking advantage of the breakouts and the strongest stocks. I bet this is one of them. And you see that we are green. The NASDAQ is leading the way today in what was, as we say, a great quarter for stocks.
The Dow is up 12 %, the S&P is up 14%, the NASDAQ is up almost 20%, the Russell 2000 is up a little over 20%. What does this mean, if anything , for what you think the second half of the year might bring? I think you forgot the most important statistic, which is that momentum increased by more than 40%.
This is on track for the best quarter ever . I was going to break it down further. This is my compass for 2026 and the second half of the year. And I developed a strategy before approaching you. I use a strategy that is 50% quality, 50% momentum. Hmm, I'm asking myself this question, I'll consider it in the second half of the year.
Do these relationships need to change? Should we focus more on momentum than quality? Because in fact, it's been like this since the beginning of the year. I think momentum is your guide. I think if you look at the S&P with equal weighting and S&P market cap and try to pick a winner, I think it's a stupid thing to do.
Each of these, ahem, indices rewards you from the beginning of the year. It fluctuates between which one will step forward and take the lead. This was definitely true of semiconductors. Software has struggled, but there are software industries that have worked like a data dog. Wait two seconds. Let's do that so we get a broader view of the momentum for the quarter, which as we said , is the best quarter ever , but now let's look at one month for MTUM because I think that's a pretty good topic for discussion as to what you think is going to happen in the second half of the year because we questioned which point, a little more volatile, a little more volatile, a little more volatile, it leaves the question open as to whether or not there will be a momentum market in the second half of the year, I think that's very important for people's investment strategies over the next few months.
So I still believe that will happen . Hmm, I think a lot of the reasons why momentum lagged in June are related to Mag 7. Keep in mind, you're looking at Mag 7 for June. Every one of them falls. But still, when you look at them together over the year, only Meta is really the name that falls. Alphabet, Nvidia, Apple, they can all compete with the performance we see, all falling within one month.
This reflects what we see here. Correct . A unwinding or unwinding of momentum, or perhaps in many aspects, or perhaps just a correction that softens the extreme bullish sentiment and positioning. Good. What do you think? Well, I think all of these stock trends that we're showing right now are clearly pointing downward over the last month.
This is understandable. But there is also a lot of cursing up and down. And we've talked a lot on the show the last few days about how fast and furious the spins have been. I think these rotations will continue as July unfolds. So instead of trying to account for these rotations, and Joe, you and I talked about this yesterday, let's not try to account for these rotations.
I'm going to go with what fundamentally makes sense to me, which is expanding growth on the back of expanding profits, which is what is projected. The rest of the market is expected to catch up with the technology . Chips will still sell great. They won't catch up. This is actually what is predicted.
If you look at 49 companies, we won't see 50% profit growth from other companies. If you look at the projected revenue for Q3, Q4, I get that from Strategus. I can send you actual data, uh, at the break-even point. I'm just saying you won't get 50% profit growth outside of technology. Well, technology is falling.
Technologies are falling. Remember that 40%. In the first quarter it was 40%. Remember this. And for that 40%, you won't get the 40% profit growth from the others. I know, but wait a minute, because two things don't draw energy. Take out the paper profits from anthropogenic and open AI from the technologies, you get 25% growth.
This is how technology operating profit growth was in the first quarter. Now, if you look at the projections for the other 493 and Scott, I'll send you the schedule right after, okay? But the projected profit growth for the other 493 and Q3 , and I'll call those guys, okay? I mean, Chris Ron is pretty great at this , and I know you know him and you talk to him.
Listen, it's predicted to catch up and then surpass. Here are the predictions. Yes, I will send you the data. Okay, so I'll do it right now. I'll do it right now . I will do it right . I'll do it right now, before you swallow the water. Just do it right now. Here's a nerd, um, listen, you know, from Nvidia.
I'll say this, uh, for your information, you know, part of the deal is that I send the ideas out at 7 in the morning so you guys can get ready. You know, Rick has to do his technical analysis and get ready. You know, I'm not bringing up these stocks because they're up 3% today. There wasn't much activity there this morning.
Many options. I've seen some analyst raises. But, as you said, it doesn't change the point. But, um, now I would also like to point out that, you know, I don't know these ideas, I trade them, but I believe in it. Hmm, I struggle with this. I'm struggling with this, but I have the DJX Spark in my cart.
Uh, I'll probably buy it this weekend. So not only will I own the stock, but I'll probably also have a $5,000 Nvidia AI computer sitting nearby. Up until this point, I've been running everything on Apple's infrastructure, but there are different, uh, apps for both. So I'll probably put money on that.
I've had it in my cart for about a month now, I think. Luckily, I did n't fall for the one-click purchase from Amazon. But, uh, anyway, speaking of which, you know, like Micron, this stock, you know, if you look at the one-year one-day chart that's here, great timing. Uh, you know, actually just all over the place, uh, most of this year.
It took off a little bit this summer and then rolled back, you know, volatile volatility. But what I like, and you can see it right here, is that it has bounced off this area since about November of last year, and to me that looks like a change in buyer momentum. Hmm, again, I'm curious to see how Rick will sort this out.
But I just see it as a level of protection. You know, that previous high was around November. Hmm, we've had such a big pullback the last few weeks, a rebound from it. And what I like about this is that it creates a good, you know, do-or-die stop-loss level. So , if this idea doesn't play out the way I think it will, you'll have a really clear area to remove your stop loss and retest later, because at that point, you know, that area won't be support anymore.
It will eventually turn into resistance in the medium term. Perfectly. Let's invite Rick. Take a look at the graphs here. Rick, I don't claim to be a technician like you both are, but you know, one of the big patterns that I've been on here is the concept of the bullish flag. And I don't know if it's perfect, but if I were a bull in that sense, I would probably say, "Hey, look at this giant bull flag breakout that's starting to happen here." You know, I understand your point of view.
And really what we're looking for is a general idea about these things. Some people are very strict about specific criteria for these things. Regarding what you're talking about, Alex, the idea of a bullish flag would be after a significant move up, a period of sideways consolidation down, and then the trend continues, breaking above those initial highs and continuing on.
Then it's just a general idea. What does this mean? A fundamental change in the stock, a repricing and, you know, a buying spree, then profit-taking, a correction before the trend continues. So this is something that, uh, happens quite often here. Of course, I'm not saying it's guaranteed or that it's going to happen here, but what I'm seeing is the recent lows of 190.
If we were to look back, there was also 196 here at 196, an old high that has been repeated here quite often. Uh, it was a little bit of a lower area around 193-194 or so , but it's coming back into focus. So we're kind of back to this support area that coincides with some of these old highs and the top of this range period.
Now we've seen a sharp rise over the last few sessions here. An area worth paying attention to from the upside . 212, the old relative high, is about where we hit some support and then resistance. When we look further at our moving averages, we see an interesting convergence right here. 5- day, 21-day, 63- day, weekly, monthly, quarterly - they all converge very closely to the 203 level.
So, this represents a notable potential support area. This type of inflection point, where multiple indicators line up, is often sought by technical traders. We also see that our 50 average line on the RSI has been crossed. The downward red trend line has been broken. So the trend seems to be improving.
So now we're focusing again on our volume profile over the last few months. The control point, the zone of intensive trade , is here, around 200. So we managed to break above that level. 207-215 is the next important area. Finally, Tim, my friend, life is too short to use weak computers. Treat yourself.
Buy this thing. Hey, and, uh, the last option here will tie it in if needed. Maybe, uh, Bank of America will help with this or one of its competitors. But, uh, this is your last deal . So it's a completely different thing, but it's related. I mean, the rising yield curve, you know, consumer spending, hyperscalers borrowing money, but technically, why are you looking at this?
Uh, you know, so, uh, good decision, right? I see there are two packages on Amazon for 10 thousand. Maybe I, maybe I'm indulging in two packages thanks to Rick. But, um, so, uh, you know, Bank of America. You know, I know these semiconductor stocks, memory stocks. I mean, a lot of people are scared.
Have they grown too much? You know, they are very volatile. So when I offer more , you know, aggressive promotions, I, I like to, you know, share something for people who maybe don't want that type of exposure. And Bank of America, uh, you know, all the finbanks, you know, are doing pretty well, just slow moves, slow grind , safer deals.
And you know, that was the number one stock that, you know, I have artificial intelligence for swing trading. Okay, I hope you're doing well today and staying calm in this market . Today we need to talk about Nvidia because something extremely interesting is happening with the stock. Even though Nvidia has lost a huge amount of market value from its recent high, Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on the company, and yet the stock continues to trade at a valuation that would have been almost impossible to imagine just a few years ago, with investors dealing with such a strange situation now.
Nvidia's business continues to grow. Demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, and the company continues to dominate the GPU market , with Nvidia remaining at the center of the entire AI ecosystem . But stocks are struggling, and that raises an important question. Does Nvidia's weakness create one of the biggest buying opportunities in the AI market, or is the stock, uh, sending investors a warning about what's coming next?
Let's take a closer look at this. One of the most important things investors need to understand is that Nvidia is not just another semiconductor company. Nvidia has become the center of the AI infrastructure ecosystem. Around Nvidia, there is a whole network of companies that benefit from the growth mputing, companies, data center operators, energy infrastructure companies, cloud service providers and dozens of other businesses.
That's why some investors believe there may be better opportunities in the AI ecosystem right now. Not because Nodia's business is declining, but because Nodia's success creates huge opportunities for other companies. Micron is one of the most prominent examples. The artificial intelligence revolution cannot continue without memory.
Each Nodia GPU requires access to a huge amount of memory. Training larger models requires more memory, and running increasingly complex workloads requires more memory. And as AI infrastructure continues to expand, memory has become one of the most critical bottlenecks in the entire supply chain. That's why Micron has attracted so much attention from investors.
The company continues to talk about extremely strong demand, supply remains constant, and customers are trying to secure their memory capacity for years to come. And despite the extraordinary growth of the business, Micron shares continue to trade at a relatively low multiple . But the story gets interesting: if Micron can't produce enough memory to meet demand, this business simply won't go away.
Other memory manufacturers will benefit, and the most important company in question is Skhix. Skhix is one of the most important suppliers; The company is a dominant player in high-speed memory, an advanced memory technology essential for AI accelerators, and expanded access to Skhix shares for U.S.
investors will create another important way for investors to participate in the AI infrastructure boom. This will create an interesting situation and remain the center of the ecosystem. Migrant pro provided access to the growing demand for memory, and skinnings provide concentrated access to high-speed memory.
So investors are starting to ask whether they should continue to buy Nvidia or start paying attention to the companies surrounding Nvidia. And I think the answer depends on what they're trying to achieve. If you are looking for the highest quality company with the most powerful artificial intelligence platform that is extremely difficult to ignore.
The company dominates the market and has a huge software ecosystem . It has strong pricing power. It has one of the most stifling supply chains in the tech industry , and the company continues to expand into the emerging market of artificial intelligence. Enterprise, i.e. artificial intelligence and networks, and potentially much greater opportunities for recurring revenue.
That's why Nvidia's current valuation has attracted so much attention. The stock has undergone significant multiple compression; in other words, Nvidia's profits continued to grow faster than its stock price, and when that happened, the stock became cheaper in line with the amount of profit the company was generating.
Some investors believe Nvidia is now trading at one of the most attractive valuations in years, and the publicity has prompted investors who have never owned the stock before to start buying the shares they sold. One portfolio manager recently named Nvodia best-in- class for sales. And I think this freeze perfectly took into account the current debit.
The company didn't suddenly stop growing. The competitive advantage has not disappeared. Demand hasn't dropped, and Nvidia continues to generate huge amounts of cash. And yet the market is unwilling to give stocks a valuation multiple of what they received earlier. Why ? Because investors are skeptical.
They are worried about special artificial intelligence chips. They were worried about hyperscalers developing their own accelerators. They were worried about Nvidia's customer concentration. They were worried about capitalist costs. They were worried about the competition. And most importantly, they worried that Nvidia's extraordinary growth couldn't last forever.
This is unclear. When a company gets this big and grows so fast, investors naturally start to ask how long the growth can last. But here's what makes Anodia unusual. The company does not rely on a single product cycle. Nvidia is expanding the size of its target market. The first big phase of the AI boom was training.
Companies are spending huge amounts of money buying Nvidia GPUs to train increasingly powerful models. But now the artificial intelligence market is entering its next phase, and these are the conclusions. Businesses are working on artificial intelligence, AI agents, robotics, automation systems, and AI applications that could eventually reach billions of users.
Each of these markets , and Nodia is positioning itself to participate in all of them. That's why some investors believe the market is underestimating Anodia's future growth. One investor recently made an extremely aggressive prediction. He believes Sanodia can continue to grow revenue by 50, 60 or even 17% annually.
And if that happens, the investor may eventually wake up after the earnings report and see Nodia undergoing a huge repricing.
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