저자: AmitKukreja · 외국인
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결론: ARK Kathie Wood의 최대 보유 종목 Zoom(ZM)은 2026년 기본 시나리오 1,500달러로 전망되며, 발언자는 Zoom 제품 자체는 최고라고 평가하지만 그 목표가 달성은 높은 성장률을 전제로 하므로 불확실하다고 봄. ARK 포트폴리오 변화: 상위 종목은 Zoom(약 720만 주, 비중 약 10.6%), Tesla(약 99만 주), Roku(760만 주), CRISPR Therapeutics(650만 주), UiPath, Block, Coinbase(약 335만 주), Robinhood(2,000만 주), DraftKings(1,500만 주), 신규 편입 NVIDIA(45.2만 주), Spotify(약 71.8만 주, 최근 약 150만 주 매도) 등. Zoom 시나리오: ARK 기본 2026년 목표 1,500달러, 약세 700달러, 강세 2,000달러. 발언자는 약세 기준으로도 약 7배, 기본 기준 약 12배 상승 여력이 있다고 해석함. Zoom 논리: 프리랜서·지식노동자·하이브리드 근무자가 월 15달러 구독을 지속할 것이라는 가정이며, 구글·마이크로소프트·슬랙 등 경쟁에도 시장점유율을 유지한다는 전제. ARK 추정 수치: 2026년 기준 글로벌 지식노동자 8.2억 명, 하이브리드 원격 근무자 2.5억 명 중 Zoom 사용자 약 3.5억 명, 유료 사용자 9,000만 명 (약세), 사용자당 매출 310달러, 매출 300억 달러, EV/EBITDA 20배. 강세에서는 유료 사용자 1.8억 명, 매출 700억 달러, 시가총액 6,800억 달러. 성장률: 약세 시나리오 연평균 약 49%, 강세 시나리오 연평균 약 87% (2022년 대비). 2022년 매출 약 10억 달러 대비 2026년 약 700억 달러로 70배 성장을 가정. 리스크: 월 15달러 유료화가 필수적이어야 하며, 저가 대안이 많아 실제 지불 의향이 불확실. 불경기 속 성장 지속 가능성 의문. Tesla 관련: ARK는 Tesla를 계속 보유하며 약 3배 상승 여력(목표가 약 4,000~4,600달러대)을 보는 것으로 언급됨. 출연자 전망: 발언자는 Zoom을 '최고의 영상 제품'으로 동의하지만 1,500달러 목표는 지나치게 공격적일 수 있다고 판단하며, 결과적으로 ARK가 맞을 수도 크게 틀릴 수도 있다고 말함. 향후 확인: Coinbase 구조조정 관련 추가 영상 예고, Spotify 매도 지속 여부 주시.
다듬은 글
all right it is time to revisit kathy wood's arc portfolio because there have been some changes in the portfolio over the past couple of weeks uh some things have gone up some things have gone down in terms of the position of the portfolio and i want to talk a little bit about my thoughts on some of the stocks that she is super ultra bullish on that have moved on to the top of the portfolio and some of the stocks that she's not bullish on that have started to move to the bottom of the portfolio now for anyone who has any of these stocks i would really want to know why you have these stocks why these what socks you're bullish on and ultimately what are your long-term thesis on these stocks if you are in the stocks right now here is the arc innovation fund main rkk etf zoom video communications is number one that is the number one stock in the portfolio now it used to be tesla not tesla anymore she's shaved off a little bit of tesla even though she's been buying over the past couple of days because tesla's gotten a lot more cheaper in the 600s uh by the way if you're buying tesla let me know in the comments as well i want to know how many people are buying tesla zoom 7.2 million shares it is 10.62 of the portfolio now we're gonna get into what sort of our overarching thesis is on zoom is a very interesting thesis and i'll talk about it in a second but zoom is the 7.2 million shares tesla's 991 000 roku 7.6 million shares uh just did a video and some analysis on roku and netflix um not that bullish on roku just because i think they're going more into content less the operating system but i mean we're gonna see what happens ultimately if it is undervalued and if it is beating up that much there is room for it to go higher it's just a question of if that's gonna move the etf uh given their average was pretty high on roku uh crispr therapeutics ui path ui path i'm getting more into need to learn more research about that crispr therapeutics look i really don't know what these guys do to be honest i've heard about them uh let's just go to their website they make gene-based medicines so i mean this is good stuff these are companies that you probably do want to bet on because if they're doing stuff that's important like that's good in the world that's awesome the question is 6.5 million shares 364 million stake five percent of the portfolio is that enough to bet on what is essentially a biotech in some respects right because like look at their first press release on the bottom um right here crispr therapeutics presents uh positive results from its phase one cobalt what if that said negative results right like that's what i mean by as a biotech like at the end of the day they're producing data and if the data comes bad because like stuff happens and like it's hard to build really life-changing drugs the stock tanks and i know this because i've been in some biotech stocks before and i'm currently in one so i mean like at the end of the day i think this is a little bit more speculative as well but i guess she knows something that makes her very confident to have 6.5 million shares of the company twilio teledoc exact sciences block uipath block is a crypto play as much as it is a financial services play especially because jack dorsey's the head of the ceo of that company i mean literally the company's name block blockchain right like they really are doing a major major payment to crypto and coinbase she has five point three point three five two million shares of coinbase coinbase given the crypto struggles bitcoin at twenty two thousand we're looking at coinbase right now it's at fifty one dollars and uh i'm making another video a little bit later today talking about some of the layoffs that are going on with coinbase so those are the top ten positions that she has in the portfolio as we go lower and lower we see some of these names roadblocks is up there 5.5 million shares robinhood 20 million shares i mean if robin it even gets too close to waters old times highway which was like 83 this will be hopefully a decent decent return for kathy even though she bought at 30 40.
so she is still in the red on this draftkings 15 million nvidia 452 000 shares that is a new portfolio position that she started over the past couple days spotify 718 000 share she's liquidated about 1.5 million shares over the past couple of weeks let's see if she continues to liquidate or if she leaves that position the way it is um and then you ended up with a bunch of these positions now let's talk a little bit about zoom and what the bowl case is for zoom because ultimately i i think it's a it's an interesting thing to to talk about when it comes to this position and if kathy wood is going to be right on this position arc's expected value for zoom video communications in 2026 is 1500 that is their base case for zoom fifteen hundred dollars per per share now it's a little bit crazy when you think about it because this is sort of their model right so i haven't gone through the literal open source i think they open source their evaluation model that stuff i haven't gone through with that but their expected value by 2026 is fifteen hundred dollars their bear case is seven hundred dollars and their bill case is two thousand if they are correct on just the barricades it's a seven x there's not a lot of easy places you can get a seven x in four years so theoretically if arc is right or and if arc is conservatively wrong then you should put all your money into zoom right like that's basically what arc is signaling here she's like well if it goes to 700 where else are you getting a clean 7x on all your money that's 700 if it's 1500 that's a 12x so i mean where else are you getting 12x on your money it would be you know this stock right here that arca saying is gonna go to 1500 as their base case so it's a really really interesting thing to think about it would be you know a massive return i mean that's why i think they've loaded up 7.5 million shares because if that thing goes to 1500 they're going to make a lot of money the question is if that's gonna happen what is the logic for why kathy wood thinks zoom could actually be there now we could go through some of the charts but i want to give you kind of like the the sort of the basic case and then we'll talk more about it they see zoom zoom's doing a billion dollars in revenue and that's about four billion for the year now you might be thinking okay a billion dollars of revenue that's cool but like why does it matter well it matters because zoom is competing in a world in which they only have competition to deal with right they have google they have facetime they have google meets and then slack and microsoft teams and all these different forms of computation clouding the enterprise communication space which is where the big money is but they are continuing to survive and now what is that a reason that they're continuing to survive arc and our research team is coming up with this hypothesis that the freelancers and knowledge workers of the world will be using zoom and paying that 15 subscription because it is a vital form of video communications it is a portal into um you know the ability to access meetings and information and things of that nature to communicate with other people to get jobs done as a freelancer around the entire world millions of people will be using this product in the service because it is the best video product that's out there it's just that simple and then in the enterprise communication space the reason why it's still able to hold market share in the face of google and microsoft and amazon and uh and slack you know really putting putting in their their feet in the fire is because zoom is the best video product ever and i tend to agree with kathy wood on this thesis i think that zoom is the best video product ever i mean i really do i think it's the best video product ever it's the best thing in the world the problem is when you say it's going to go to 1500 you are assuming such a strong growth rate i mean i think it can grow but like such a elevated growth rate in the next five years which is just like is i mean is that going to be what's going to happen so like this is the chart we have right here the arc estimate in 2021 there's the total zoom users global hybrid remote knowledge workers excluding mainland china so this is all the people that she thinks can still be using it total paying zoom users and an average revenue per paying user that average revenue for paying user is going to go up significantly as the global hybrid users go up in the bowl case and the total zoom user starts to take a chip out of that global hybrid amount of users that go along with the total paying zoom users as well so they think it's going to grow a lot and the average revenue per user is going to be in the hundreds as they get more and more people to ultimately join and use the product so to the base case uh for example bear outcome in 2026 there's 820 million global knowledge workers in 2026 250 million hybrid remote knowledge workers using zoom so they're assuming there's all these people across the world that are paying the subscription for zoom 90 million paying zoom users 310 average revenue per user 30 billion in revenue they're assuming zoom will be able to get to um the enterprise value to ebitda would be 20x market cap 240 billion share price 700 which mean that would give you an average compounded annual growth rate of 49 from 2022 in the bull case you would get 87 compounded annual growth rate at 2 000 a share um from 2022.
the bull case has a 850 million total adjustable market 350 million people using it 180 million people paying for it uh 70 billion in revenue 20 x uh enter ev to ebitda and 680 billion dollar market cap i mean could zoom become that big of a company i don't know but like i think kathy would they made their money off tesla they still obviously hold it because they see a 3x from here still on tesla i think they said like a 4 000 price target or 4 600 something around that in the next couple years um zoom at 1 500.
i mean either she's going to be right she's going to be really wrong that's the cool thing and the fun thing about investing the question is like could that happen and could that realistically could the world's freelance global hybrid knowledge workers enterprise communication organizations and clients actually decide that zoom is worth paying for i think they're going to pay for it i think a lot of people are going to use it especially because i use it and it's the best thing ever that exists in terms of video communication i just don't know that many people are gonna be paying for it around the world i mean there's just a lot of cheap alternatives at the end of the day to pay 15 bucks a month just for video calls if you really need it if it's really vital yes if you don't then you won't but i guess kathy is betting that 7 million shares number one stock in our portfolio a billion dollars in revenue right now in 2022 eventually will be 70 billion by 2026 so 70 xing the revenue even through this recession that we're going through it's gonna be one of those stocks that keeps up she's betting that that's gonna be the winner so ultimately we will see let me know your thoughts in the comments what do you guys think about zoom what do you guys think about kathy wood having it as the number one stock on portfolio thank you so much for listening i will see you in the next one
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