저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마이클 배리(Michael Burry)는 2023년 1분기 13F 공시에서 미국 금융주(지역은행)에 대규모 롱 포지션을 구축했고, 경기 회복 및 주가 반등에 베팅한 것으로 해석된다. 13F 공시의 의미와 한계: 13F는 1억 달러 이상 운용사가 SEC에 분기별로 제출하는 보유 종목 공시다. 미국 상장 주식 롱 포지션만 보여주며 숏, 채권, 일부 파생상품은 드러나지 않는다. 분기 종료 후 45일 내 공시되어 정보가 지연된다. 포트폴리오 변화: 2022년 상반기에는 롱 포지션이 거의 없었으나 점차 늘려 현재 1억 달러 이상의 롱 포지션을 보유한다. 하락장에서 매수를 늘린 것으로 보인다. 금융주 집중: 미국 지역은행(Western Alliance 4.15%, PacWest 2.3%, First Republic 2%, New York Community Bank 7.2%, Capital One, Wells Fargo 등)에 포트폴리오의 4분의 1 이상을 배정했다. 2023년 초 공시에는 없던 종목으로 1분기에 새로 편입했다. 수익 결과: First Republic은 5월 초 파산해 해당 베팅은 실패했고, New York Community Bancorp는 연초 대비 약 20% 상승해 반등 가능성을 보였다. 섹터 구성: 금융서비스와 경기소비재가 포트폴리오의 절반 이상, 기술 약 11%, 에너지 약 9%다. 경기 호황 기대와 연결된 배분으로 해석된다. 중국 주식: JD.com과 알리바바가 합쳐 약 20%다. JD는 매출 성장률이 1.4%로 낮고 EBITDA 마진이 3% 미만이다. 알리바바는 선행 PER 약 9.5배로 밸류에이션이 낮아 정상화에 베팅한 것으로 보인다. 중국 증시 전반도 밸류에이션이 낮다고 언급됐다. 리스크: 중국 이커머스는 경쟁이 치열하고 마진이 좁으며 프로모션 부담이 크다. 13F만 보고 따라 사는 것은 위험하며, 개인의 재무 상황과 위험 허용도를 먼저 고려해야 한다. 출연자 전망: 해설자는 배리가 경기와 주식 전반에 낙관적이라고 봤다. 다만 이는 공시 해석에 기반한 추정이다.
다듬은 글
The Big Short Michael burry recently released his 13f filings and it's creating quite a buzz in this episode we'll reveal what Brewery is betting on and explore the potential implications it may have on the market so get ready for a captivating analysis that might just reshape your investment strategy so did you know that Michael Bree the well-known investor and hedge fund manager was trained as a doctor he received his medical degree from the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in 1997 and practiced medicine as a neurology resident at Stanford Hospital however Dr Brie transitioned from medicine to finance and became famous for his early recognition of the housing bubble and subsequent crisis in the great financial recession in 2008.
he made Savvy moves by going short and profiting when stock prices plummeted sure he also made money during the market rebounds but his real claim to fame lies in his ability to predict crashes that's why everyone is so interested to find out what or when his next big short ideas will be apart from the interviews he conducts everyone is keeping an eye on his 13f filing to get a clear picture of what he's up to a 13f filing refers to a mandatory Disclosure document that institutional investment managers in the United States with over 100 million dollars in assets under management are required to submit to the Securities and Exchange Commission the 13f filing provides detailed information about the investment Holdings of these institutional investment managers including their positions in publicly traded stocks and convertible Securities it offers transparency into the portfolio Holdings and investment strategies of these large investors allowing the public and other Market participants to track their activities it is typically filed on a quarterly basis within 45 days after the end of each calendar quarter now there are some limitations in the 13f filings these filings only cover U.S publicly listed stocks leaving us in the dark about what Brewery might be holding on non-us exchanges plus these filings only reveal long positions if brie has any short positions which he is known for well tough luck we won't get to know about them thirdly the filings do not contain information on bonds or certain derivatives like options but despite those limitations it is still a valuable tool for retail investors like us to see what those big guys were doing now let's look at what bury is actually doing with his portfolio if we compare last year's data to the most recent filings from cyan Asset Management which is the fun Brewery manages it is interesting that his Equity positions have steadily increased over the last year in the first two quarters of 2022 he had almost no long positions at all but he gradually built them up and now he's sitting on over 100 million dollars in Long positions so he has been buying more stocks as the market declined quite interesting right when we take a closer look we can see that Michael Bree is not only buying stocks he is buying stocks that have been hammered hard in recent Market turmoil from this table we can see that he has established long positions in several U.S Regional Banks the same Regional banks that have been caught in the storm and are feeling the Heat 4.15 of his portfolio is invested in Western Alliance Bancorp 2.3 percent of the portfolio is in pacquest Bancorp another two percent of the portfolio in First Republic Bank he also has large positions in Capital One bank and Wells Fargo his largest bank position New York Community Bank Corp comes at 7.2 percent and together Michael burry has allocated more than a quarter of his portfolio in the backing sector alone now we won't know for sure if Michael has short positions or options betting against these Financial stocks but it is probably safe to say that Michael burry bought those being up stocks for a rebound in the days to come his 13f filing at the end of 2022 didn't show he took possessions in these stocks so he loaded these long positions in the first quarter of 2023.
the rationale being he probably selected a basket of financial services companies he believed that had big upside and invested in this basket of said companies we won't know how long he held those positions or if he even chose to sell when he exited those positions but we do know that not all of his bets worked out for example First Republic Bank went Belly Up in early May so it is likely Berry's bet there did not work out but on the other hand New York Community Bancorp is up about 20 year to date showing some serious rallying power if we take a look at the sector breakdown we see that Financial Service and consumer cyclical are the most concentrated sectors for Michael burry over half of his portfolio is invested in those sectors the next big sector he is betting on is technology which comes in at around 11 percent energy sector also has a heavy position at around nine percent so what does the positioning tell us well one possible answer is that Michael Bree is betting on an economic recovery taking place in the months to come because you know consumer cyclicals and energy prices both tend to do well when the economy is booming here we are looking at the individual stocks in Michael burry's portfolio it is a bit surprising to see that two of his biggest Holdings are Chinese stocks JD and Alibaba we can see that JD and Alibaba together account for another 20 of Michael Berry's portfolio JD primarily operates as a business to Consumer online retailer offering a wide range of products including Electronics Home Appliances clothing books cosmetics and more importantly jd.com has a comprehensive Logistics Network and owns and operates its own warehousing and delivery infrastructure enabling it to provide efficient and reliable order fulfillment and delivery services but if we dive into the recent quarterly earnings report of jd.com it's not painting a Rosy picture for the stock the revenue growth over the past year stands at a measly 1.4 percent possibly the lowest it has ever been adding to the concerns the company has a capital intensive business model and therefore it is a low margin business with its ebi TDA margins remaining below 3 percent so far the fundamentals aren't indicating a quick turnaround story for jd.com meanwhile Michael Bree's other Chinese stock Alibaba is a multinational conglomerate and one of the world's largest e-commerce companies it operates various online platforms that facilitate B2B b2c and C2C sales recently shares of Alibaba have remained Under Pressure despite the company generating rather robust revenues the Stock's valuation has been compressed to a very low forward p e ratio of about 9.5 x Michael brie is likely betting on the Stock's valuation levels normalizing as we advance which sounds like a reasonable investment case given alibaba's excellent financials in fact valuation for Chinese stocks are currently quite low if we compare the forward price to earnings ratio of msci China to that of the United States it is noticeably lower additionally When comparing China's forward price to earnings multiple to its own historical data it appears undeniably cheap so that may be the reason behind Michael Bree's concentrated allocation into those two Chinese stocks still the e-commerce Market in China is fiercely competitive and saturated with narrow profit margins on top of all that there's a constant stream of promotional offers to entice people to spend which further eats into profitability so it's a little bit surprising to see such a concentrated position in this sector and though specific stocks sentiment in Chinese stock market is currently pretty low bury must have immense faith that they're the golden tickets to ride the China wave now the question arises should we follow in buri's footsteps while it's fascinating to analyze his moves and try to decipher his reasoning blindly copying his trades may not be the best approach remember the 13f filings are released 45 days after the prior quarter end so the information we are seeing here is not the most up-to-date more importantly his circumstances and investment strategy are quite different from ours it's essential to consider our own financial situation risk tolerance and investment goals before diving into any particular trade what we can take away from this analysis is that Michael Bree is bullish on the economy and on stocks and there you have it folks the fascinating world of Finance never fails to surprise us and Michael burry's latest bet is no exception we hope this video sheds some light on his investment choices and provided you with valuable insights if you enjoyed this video don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe to our channel for more thought-provoking content feel free to share your thoughts and comments down below until next time happy investing and stay tuned for more exciting updates
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