저자: WarrenBuffett&CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거는 가치투자 경쟁이 심화되어 기회가 줄었지만, 어리석은 행동을 하는 사람들이 늘어 기회는 계속 존재한다고 주장. 가치투자자는 수익이 줄어드는 데 익숙해져야 한다는 조언. 큰 자금을 운용하는 입장에서는 수익률 하락이 불가피하다는 취지. 기술 변화나 새로운 것의 등장이 투자 기회를 없애지는 않는다는 견해. 기회는 다른 사람들이 어리석은 일을 할 때 생긴다는 논리. 1942년 이후 세상이 크게 바뀌었지만 기회는 사라지지 않았다고 설명. 지난 58년간 버크셔를 운영하며 어리석은 행동을 하는 사람이 크게 늘었고, 쉽게 돈을 조달할 수 있게 되면서 큰 규모의 어리석은 일이 벌어진다고 지적. 보험사 다수를 설립해 부를 얻을 수 있는 구조의 문제도 언급. 작은 자금으로 투자하는 개인에게는 기회가 더 많을 것이라는 견해. 다만 버핏과 멍거는 이 문제에 대해 의견이 자주 달랐음. 단기 실적에 치중하는 월가와 기관 투자자, 기업 경영진의 실적 관리 문화를 비판. 장기적 관점의 투자자에게는 여전히 기회가 있다는 입장. 대상 자산 관련 직접적인 가격 예측 발언은 없음. 출연자는 버핏과 멍거이며 사회자 발언은 제외.
다듬은 글
Hi, my name is Jala Z. I'm from Santa Clara, California, and my question is for Charlie and Warren. Given the rise of disruptive technologies that can significantly improve productivity, including AI, how do you see the future of value investing in this new era? What adaptations or new principles do you think investors should follow , and do you have any tips for remaining successful in this fast-paced landscape?
Thank you. Well , I'll be happy to answer that. I think value investors are going to have a harder time now because there are so many of them and they are competing for fewer and fewer opportunities. So my advice to value investors is to get used to earning less. And Charlie kept telling me the same thing the whole time we've known each other and we get along great because we make less.
Yes. Well, but that's mostly, I think, because we've gotten bigger. We were younger and we never thought we'd be able to manage 58 billion or five ... But I would bet there's going to be plenty of opportunity, and partly because technology doesn't matter, or something like that. I mean, if you look at how the world has changed since 1942, when I started, you ask , "How can a guy who does n't know anything about airplanes, not know anything about engines, cars, electricity, all that stuff ?" But that's not really the case, changes in the world or the emergence of something new do not take away opportunities.
Opportunities come from other people doing stupid things. And that's it, and I would say that in the 58 years that we've been running Berkshire, the number of people doing stupid things has increased significantly, and they're doing big stupid things; and the reason they do this is partly because they can get money from other people much more easily than when we started.
So you could open 10 or 15 crappy insurance companies in the last 10 years and get rich if you're good at it, regardless of whether the business became successful or not. And the underwriters got paid, the lawyers got paid, and that creates ...if this is done on a large scale, what couldn't have been done, well, 58 years ago?
Luckily, you couldn't get money for some of the stupid things we wanted to do, uh . And, uh, so I don't think investing has disappeared from this huge capitalist market that anyone can play in, but the big money is being made selling ideas to other people that don't beat the market, and, uh, I think unless you're managing very large sums like we are.
But if you operate with small amounts of money, I think, I think the opportunities will be greater. But Charlie and I have always had differences of opinion on this issue. He, he, he loves to tell me how bleak this world is. And I, I like to tell him, "We'll find something." And for now, we are both right in our own way .
Charlie, are you going to give in a little on this or not? There is, there is, there is so much money now in the hands of so many smart people trying to outsmart and outdo each other, to outsmart and outsmart I mean, if you look at this government bond market, if you look at the Treasury bill market, they have one bill that stands out from the crowd .
We bought them for over three billion the other day. And yet, these are people whose world is mostly focused on the short term. And if you get on an investor relations call, they're all trying to figure out how to fill out a report to show the earnings for the year. And management is interested in giving them expectations that are slightly exceeded.
I mean, this is a world created specifically for someone who is trying to think about what needs to be done to make it work in five, ten, or twenty years. And, uh, I just think I wish I was born today and started with a small amount of money, hoping to turn it into a large amount. But Charlie too, actually.
He, he, he would just find something to do. I guarantee you. Uh, and it wouldn't be exactly like before, but he would have a big, big, big pile. I wouldn't like the feeling of losing my big pile by turning it into a small one. I like my big pile just the way it is. Well, I like it. By the way, we agree on this. OK. Yes, we do. You are one of the most ardent supporters of this great bunch.
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