저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 부채 위기가 임박했고 현재 후기 경기사이클에 진입했다는 전제의 영상이다. 달리오는 미국 정부가 부채한도 합의로 디폴트를 피했지만 이는 문제를 뒤로 미루는 것일 뿐이라고 본다. 부채 규모는 약 32조 달러이며 이 중 약 24.5조 달러(약 78%)가 공공부채(국내외 투자자 차입)이다. 연간 재정적자가 커질수록 국채 발행이 늘어나는 악순환 구조가 제시된다. 금리는 1년 내 5%p 이상 급등해 정부의 이자비용이 크게 늘었고, 이는 인프라·교육 등 생산적 지출을 줄여 성장을 약화시킬 수 있다고 경고한다. 달리오는 금리 상승 속도가 성장 속도를 앞서는 것을 우려한다. 국채 수요 측면에서는 미국채 가격 하락으로 손실을 본 은행(실리콘밸리은행 파산 사례 언급)과 일본·중국·영국 등 대형 보유국의 매도 가능성이 거론된다. 특히 중국의 국채 매입 감소와 지정학적 긴장, 제재 위험이 수요 감소 요인으로 지적된다. 수요가 부족하면 금리를 더 올리거나 연준이 채권을 매입하며 돈을 찍어야 하는데, 이는 통화가치와 부의 재분배 등 중대한 결과를 낳는다. 달리오는 미국이 중대한 기로에 있으며 부채 위기로 번질지 여부가 핵심이라고 결론짓는다. 연준의 대차대조표 축소와 국채 추가 발행이 유동성을 더 빨아들일 위험도 함께 언급된다. 구체적 가격 목표나 종목 매매 추천은 등장하지 않으며, 주장은 주로 거시·구조적 위험에 관한 것이다.
다듬은 글
welcome and get ready to dive into the thrilling world of Investments where numbers dance money talks and the unexpected always keeps us on our toes today we are going to hear the cold hard truth about the Monstrous debt problem haunting the United States as revealed by the renowned investor and founder of the largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates Ray dalio brace yourself for the impending debt crisis that could send shockwaves through our economy the news he's delivering isn't for the faint of heart it's time to face the harsh reality lurking behind the scenes to Ray dalio we are at in my opinion we are at the beginning of a very classic late cycle late late cycle whether we like it or not we're headed towards it the burning question is how fast is going to hit us and how it's going to play out even though the U.S Congress passed a debt limit deal and early June preventing Aid default from happening for the first time in U.S history Ray dalio sees it as simply kicking the can down the road which would make the situation worse for the years to come the massive amount of debt offerings and debt monetization prompt him to ponder what is the money really worth and how does it impact the supply and demand of money what Ray dalio really means is that the U.S government has been spending more money than they've been taking in for a long long time to cover the spending spree the government relies on selling boatloads of bonds which are basically ious handed out to investors over the years it has become a vicious cycle where the larger the annual deficit becomes the more the government has to borrow just to keep their heads Above Water by the way Ray dalio is not the only person who is ringing the alarm Bell recently we also who covered Stanley druckenmiller's hard Landing scenario for the U.S economy drucken Miller has a similar view that the U.S debt problem is going to hit the economy hard you can check out that episode here now back to dalio he sees three worrisome factors that are converging firstly it is the rapid rise in interest rates which could potentially trigger the second Factor an economic downturn additionally he is also worried about the presence of internal conflict as significant wealth disparities within the country right now the US is sitting on a mind-boggling 32 trillion dollars of debt 24 and a half trillion dollars of that or approximately 78 is deemed as public debt meaning its cash borrowed from domestic and foreign investors Ray dalio predicts that the government will find it difficult to seek sufficient buyers for newly issued bonds as you can see the economics of a country aren't all that different from the economics of an individual or a company just like you and me a country can't spend more than it earns without racking up some serious debt and when you have debt you definitely have to pay it back however countries possess the ability to print their own currency which produces a crucial question is there a limit to this practice of printing money or does it perpetuate an endless cycle it is common sense that the more debt you have the more you'll eventually have to pay back a few years ago when interest rates were very low the government didn't have to pay much in interest on borrowed money however interest rates have climbed more than five percent in a year so now any debt taken on by the government will be much more expensive to repay compared to that obtained in the past going into debt can have costly consequences in the future firstly the amount of debt can quickly grow and the interest payments become heavier this leaves the government with less money to spend on infrastructure or education for example thus weakening the overall economy Ray dalio is concerned about the United States's ability to grow its economy fast enough to make the debt worthwhile especially given current interest rates what's happening now is we have to sell all this our debt is we then have we do have enough buyers there were changes now in terms of the quantities in the world that are being held by large investors around the world that have lost money in these treasury bonds and so on and then there are geopolitical changes which are having an effect let's look at the people and countries that own a large portion of U.S debt this includes Banks and governments the problem is is that some entities own too many U.S treasuries which are losing value since the FED started to hike interest rates everyone has witnessed how Silicon Valley Bank experienced significant losses when the value of their U.S treasury bonds dropped due to Rising interest rates leading to the bank's collapse but it's not just companies that are affected countries like Japan China and the UK also hold large amounts of U.S treasury bonds the concern is that if the U.S continues its excessive spending and floods the market with more treasuries there might not be enough buyers for them especially if other countries already have too many U.S treasuries on their books this would create an oversupply of treacheries and a decrease in demand causing problems the risk here is that things can spread widely across the globe hitting banks in other countries and even central banks worldwide raise mention of supply Ai and demand and balance can get worse when the treasury starts to issue more debt after the debt ceiling deal we also talked about this topic in another video recently and you can check that one out right here we now know that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce their balance sheet at the same time that the treasury is going to issue more debt the fed's action will further drain liquidity from the market and could potentially break more things in the system this risky situation could have severe consequences and as this story is still unfolding and the risks are increasing we will be keeping an eye out for you and we'll make sure to keep you all updated with skyrocketing interest rates banks are paying higher interest to depositors but they face a predicament they can only earn a measly one percent on bonds until maturity resulting in losses Additionally the value of these bonds has plummeted so much that Banks don't want to sell them this unsustainable situation is made worse by geopolitics tensions between the United States and other countries especially China add complexity to the problem China has been reducing its purchases of U.S treasuries causing concerns about potential sanctions and their impact on U.S bonds if countries decide to sell off their Holdings it becomes a major problem Ray dalio sheds light on how geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions may cause countries to distance themselves from U.S debt in the future exacerbating the problem for U.S tertiaries if the man weakens two outcomes are possible interest rates need to be increased or the Federal Reserve must step in and purchase bonds we have observed this scenario play out over the past few years however forcing countries to sell their bonds creates a dilemma either significantly higher interest rates or central banks printing large amounts of money this delicate balance carries grave consequences that required the utmost of caution even if interest rates are nearly zero and the cost of borrowing becomes minimal if there is an imbalance between supply and demand for bonds the Federal Reserve will have to step in they will print money and purchase these bonds effectively redistributing wealth the United States is undeniably confronted with a significant debt problem The crucial question now is whether this issue can be resolved or if it will escalate into a full-fledged debt crisis it's a critical juncture we currently find ourselves in I would personally be interested in hearing your thoughts on this matter so please leave your comments down below if you enjoyed this video please support us by liking it and subscribing to our Channel stay tuned as the journey continues in the next exciting episode
Comments 0