저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
시겔은 이란·유가·인플레이션 등 리스크를 인정하면서도 AI 인프라 투자 규모(향후 5년 약 5조달러)를 근거로 시장 상승 지속 가능성을 언급. 일론 머스크/스페이스X 관련해선 장기(3~5년) 관점에서 머스크 쪽에 베팅하는 게 현명하다고 주장. 마이크론은 분기 매출 411억달러, 조정EPS 25.11달러 등 강한 실적을 근거로 메모리 수급 타이트와 장기계약(약 1,000억달러 최소 약정)을 강조. 단, 시겔이 명확히 단기 방향을 말한 대상은 없음.
다듬은 글
Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania and WisdomTree Chief Economist, Jeremy, we're back again, episodically. I remember how many times you were optimistic and despite all the difficulties, and everything worked out. Last time you were here, I think I said you were being pretty cautious, and the market kept moving.
Um, you're still...I think you were talking about inflation. Well, that's never good , and you talk about rising rates, and you talk about Iran, oil prices and all that, and it got you thinking. Are you surprised that the S&P until recently, the last few sessions...Yes, we have 10 consecutive weeks of upward momentum.
Did it make you think that there would be a day of reckoning, or that it would continue? Well, Joe, I don't think anyone was surprised. I mean , if you told everyone, I mean, if you even told Tom Lee, you know, 3 months ago, that oil was going to be 90 to 100, the streets would be closed, there wouldn't be much prospect there.
Do you know if the S&P would have gone up 10 or 15%? The answer was : you know, this is crazy. What happened is that there are many detours, many downfalls . You know, China stopped importing , you know, 5 million barrels a day. We don't know if we're going to be in a predicament where suddenly people say, "Oh, the decline is over." And so the market gets support if we are close to that.
I mean, this is, you know, again, we all know that Trump has said many times that we are close to this. But I thought the war seemed to be starting again, the last few days ago. They both stopped. So maybe Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir. Good morning, Joe. We're all, um, really worried about what's going to happen on Friday.
There are also questions about the structure, valuation, distribution method from a retail perspective, NASDAQ. What do you expect from Friday and the following weeks? Well, listen, it's an exciting week, Andrew, and I think it's really smart that they're also providing this to a lot of retailers. I think this is an industrial revolution that everyone in our country is a part of, and I think you've obviously seen from Palantir and the retail support and what Yaron has done before, it's going to be a strong IPO.
Do you have a feeling we'll see a huge leap forward from the start? Oh my God. Do you think we're going to...I mean, it seems like everything...No, no, but the reason I'm asking is that it seems like a lot of the other IPOs that could happen this fall or even later this summer are very dependent on what happens right after that, right?
You know, that's interesting. There's probably some effect where cryptocurrency, probably some of the liquidity, probably goes into SpaceX and Robinhood and all these other things that are happening, right? So I think in a sense, in the short term, there's probably some movement of money happening and people are very excited.
I think the key thing here is that this is a critically important company in the midst of the biggest industrial revolution we've ever had. Elon has set very clear goals for himself , where he will receive additional bonuses if he achieves these goals financially . He is one of those people who never misses his goals.
So I think you're looking at this. I think you are placing your bets on a 3-5 year period. I am not a short-term trader. I can't tell you what will happen in the near future. Hmm, we had Steve Iceman on the show earlier this week. He is not the buyer of these shares. He believes that the assessment is meaningless.
Uh , he looks at TAM, thinks it has a lot to do with AI , and he doesn't think that, uh, Elon, it's not that Elon is n't in the game, but for some reason he doesn't believe that Elon is going to win this game with AI. Do you have a different opinion? Yeah, I mean, I mean , listen, our economy is currently investing trillions of dollars in infrastructure for AI.
Literally, I think it's about $5 trillion over the next 5 years. For example, that tiny thing that Elon spent, I do n't think I'm allowed to say what exactly he spent the money on. I just talked to him about it, but basically it's like a payback of, well, much less than a year, that's what I'll tell you.
Uh , for the $26 billion he gets paid for the part he spent that money on. And I mean, he's one of those guys who has the best equipment in the world, at a time when trillions of dollars are going into this field. And by the way, every time there's more stupid regulations, more data centers coming up that China, you know, is spending money on to convince us along with the far left not to do it, it just helps Elon because he's going to do it in space on a massive scale .
And he showed how it would work. So, I mean, he's really set it up in a way that he's right at the key part of the AI wave . It's crazy to think he won't win. Okay, if you're right, and maybe you'll agree or disagree with that. I was betting that he would, relatively quickly, I think, but maybe you think otherwise, try to buy Tesla with SpaceX shares.
That's above my pay grade, Andrew. I think SpaceX is set to become a key e is absolutely the best in the world at what he does, as far as the equipment he has built at XAI. I mean, it's amazing how much people pay for this. And and and and here, here, here's another intuition about this, which is crazy.
It's like they want longer contracts, right? So they're willing to pay a lot more than a year costs them , given his ability to build these things, and he keeps them shorter because he thinks it's going to be more expensive for him than what he's going to do. So, I mean, I think, listen, betting against this guy is not very smart, in my opinion.
That wasn't very smart. What do you think about Nasdaq changing its rules? There were a lot of questions about whether this was good for pricing or bad for pricing. Obviously, this creates opportunities for the Nasdaq, creates an opportunity to get into the index for people who want to buy. Micron just shocked Wall Street, and that changes everything for Nvidia investors.
Today was an extremely important day for the artificial intelligence industry. Micron just posted one of the strongest earnings reports we've seen from any semiconductor company from this perspective. And honestly, even investors who were expecting a great report probably didn't expect such strong numbers.
Let's take a look at what exactly happened, and more importantly, why it matters to Nvidia and the entire history of AI infrastructure. First, a significant excess of profits. Micron reported revenue of $41.46 billion, beating Wall Street expectations of about $35.9 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $25.11, well above the consensus estimate of about $20.8.
But what really surprised investors was the forecast. For the next quarter, Micron expects revenue of $15 billion, compared to analysts' forecast of about $43.4 billion. This is a huge overstatement. Even more impressive was the profitability. Micron reported a gross margin of 84.9% for the quarter and was targeting a gross margin of approximately 86% next quarter.
For comparison, Nvidia's latest gross margin is around 75%. This is not to compare Micron to Nvidia. They work in different parts of the AI ecosystem. What is the main indicator of how powerful the memory market has become today? Why is the margin so high? The answer is simple. There is enough memory, there is not enough memory.
For years, memory has grew, companies expanded production, and supply eventually exceeded demand. Prices fell, and the cycle repeated. is equation. Today, demand does not come primarily from smartphones or PCs. It comes from hyperscalers, cloud providers, AI labs , and enterprise customers using AI projects .
And each of them requires a huge amount of high-speed memory. As a result, demand continues to outpace supply. Customers are willing to pay premium prices because they simply have no other choice. The biggest announcement of the conference call, although the earnings part made headlines, I think the most important announcement came during the Micron conference call.
Management reported that the company has already signed 16 long-term strategic agreements with customers. These contracts usually last for 5 years, until the end of this decade. Even more impressive is that these deals already represent approximately $100 billion in minimum portfolio commitments. And management has repeatedly emphasized that this figure is conservative, as it reflects only minimum procurement commitments.
Think about what this means. For decades, investors worried about Micron because demand could disappear almost overnight. Now customers are committing to purchasing memory for years to come. This is a completely different business model. It also gives investors much better visibility into future returns.
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