저자: TomLee/MichaelSaylor · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 BTC 250,000달러 가정 시 ETH 12,000~62,000달러 가능, ETH/BTC 8년 평균비율 0.0479·2021 고점 0.0873 근거를 제시하며 BTC가 금보다 가치저장 성과가 우월하고 올해 금이 BTC에 뒤처질 것이라 주장. Michael Saylor는 향후 12개월 20~100조 달러 디지털 신용 수요 대비 약 100억 달러 매도 가능 BTC로 공급 충격이 형성 중이며 BTC 랠리가 디지털 자산 전반으로 번질 것이라 주장. 규제 명확화(CLARITY Act)와 주요 은행 참여도 긍정 요인으로 언급.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee is predicting Bitcoin could hit $250,000. And if that happens, it could send Ethereum to 12,000, 22,000, or even as high as $62,000. At the same time, Michael Saylor is warning that a massive supply shock is already forming in Bitcoin right now. He's talking about 20 to 100 billion dollars of new demand colliding with only around 10 billion dollars of available Bitcoin.
And when that kind of imbalance hits the market, prices don't move slowly because they move violently. But here's what most people are missing. This isn't just another price prediction. According to Tom Lee, Ethereum could become the layer where Wall Street builds, where AI systems operate, and where the next generation of digital products are created.
And if Ethereum returns to its historical relationship with Bitcoin, the upside from here could be far bigger than most investors expect. At the same time, Saylor believes Bitcoin is about to become the backbone of a new financial system powered by digital credit, stable coins, and global banking adoption.
And if that plays out, every part of crypto, from DeFi to major institutions, could end up driving demand back into Bitcoin itself. In this video, we're going to break down Tom Lee's Ethereum price targets, Michael Saylor's Bitcoin supply shock thesis, and why both of them believe the next phase of crypto could happen much faster than anyone is prepared for.
; Let me just talk talk to you about the future price of Ethereum. So, I think the best way to look at this is still think about Ethereum's price ratio to Bitcoin, okay? And the 8-year average is 0.0479. So, if Bitcoin gets to 250,000, which I don't think is a stretch, that would value Ethereum at $12,000.
But, I think that that's too low. I I think Ethereum is really the story for the next 15 years around crypto because that's where Wall Street's going to build, and that's where AI is going to take place, and also where creators like Mr. Beast are going to be building products. So, it may recover to its 8-year high, 2021 high of 0.0873.
That's $22,000 Ethereum. And of course, it can go higher if ETH becomes a payment rails like Joe Lubin talks about. So, Ethereum and Bitmain's price are highly correlated, okay? And so, if we look at future ETH prices, at $22,000 ETH, Bitmain stock is 500. And at $62,000 ETH, Bitmain's 1,500. So, again, the stock, which I'm sure you're frustrated with, but it has no debt.
Um and of course, it's tied to Ethereum, which has a bright future. So, uh the best days are ahead. Tom is not just throwing out random numbers when he talks about Ethereum reaching 12,000 or even 22,000. He is grounding that prediction in something very specific, the long-term relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Over the past 8 years, Ethereum has traded at an average of about 0.0479 relative to Bitcoin. That ratio becomes extremely important when you start projecting where prices could go next. If Bitcoin reaches $250,000, which Lee argues is not unrealistic given institutional flows and macro conditions, then Ethereum at that historical ratio lands around $12,000.
But, he does not stop there. He points out that during peak moments like in 2021, Ethereum traded much higher relative to Bitcoin, closer to 0.087. If that level returns, Ethereum is no longer a $12,000 asset. It becomes a $22,000 asset, and that is where the real shift in thinking begins. Because Lee is not just looking at charts, he is looking at where capital is flowing.
Wall Street is increasingly building on Ethereum. Tokenization of real-world assets is happening on Ethereum. Stablecoins continue to settle primarily on Ethereum infrastructure. Even large financial institutions experimenting with blockchain are choosing Ethereum as their base layer. That creates a feedback loop where usage drives value, and value attracts more usage.
At the same time, the narrative around artificial intelligence is starting to intersect with blockchain. If decentralized systems become part of how AI agents transact or store value, Ethereum is positioned right in the middle of that development. This is no longer just a smart contract platform, it is becoming financial infrastructure.
And when infrastructure captures global demand, price does not move slowly. But Ethereum does not move in isolation. Its trajectory depends heavily on what Bitcoin does next. And that brings us to the bigger picture that Tom Lee is watching very closely. Since 1971, I've plotted gold's return versus inflation on a 3-year rolling basis, okay?
And every time it's red, gold did worse than inflation. 48% of the time in the last 50 years, gold has not stored value. It's done worse than inflation. And then since Bitcoin was created, okay? Bitcoin has only underperformed inflation 5 months out of 160 months, which means 5% of the Sorry, 3% of the time.
But in that same period of time, gold underperformed inflation 44% of the time. So again, I think you don't want to lose hope in Bitcoin. It's been a better store value than gold, even though gold has looked better in the past year. So, if you ask me in 2026, I think gold is going to underperform Bitcoin, okay?
Um All right, but I think so. I think crypto can't turn around until Bitcoin turns around, but I think Bitcoin can't turn around until gold actually starts to underperform, which again, I think this is it's this year. Tom Lee shifts the focus from Ethereum to something even more foundational, the role of Bitcoin as a store of value.
And this is where his argument becomes much harder to ignore because it is built on decades of data. He looks at gold going all the way back to 1971 and compares its performance against inflation on a rolling 3-year basis. What he finds is surprising. Nearly half the time, gold failed to keep up with inflation.
Around 48% of the time, it did not preserve purchasing power the way most people assume it does. Then, he compares that to Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin was created, it has only underperformed inflation a handful of times, roughly 5 months out of more than a decade of data. That is a tiny fraction. It means Bitcoin has preserved value far more consistently than gold in its short history.
Even though Bitcoin is known for volatility, the long-term trend shows something very different. And that contrast is what sets up his next call. Lee believes that before crypto can fully accelerate again, Bitcoin needs to reclaim leadership over gold. Over the past year, gold has had moments of strength, which pulled capital away from Bitcoin, but if that reverses and Bitcoin starts outperforming again, it could trigger a broader shift back into crypto markets.
That shift would not just affect Bitcoin, it would pull liquidity into Ethereum and the rest of the market. Because when Bitcoin leads, everything else follows. And And if Lee is right about this rotation happening soon, then what comes next may happen think the formation of you're talking about between 20 and 100 billion dollars worth of credit formation in the next 12 months, and there's only 10 billion dollars of Bitcoin naturally available for sale.
So, I think that we're setting up a massive supply shock. There ought to be a rally in BTC. I think that'll catalyze a rally in all the Bitcoin treasury companies. I think it'll cause a rally in demand for digital credit. I think there'll be a rally in bank credit. I think uh I think the Clarity Act will go through and there'll be a lot of very constructive guidance from the CFTC, Treasury, and and the SEC.
I think that that will accelerate digital assets innovation. And I actually think that there's going to be a a coming together of the the the altcoin or stablecoin industry and the crypto industry and the Bitcoin community. Because I think what's going to happen is the digital credit is going to power all of the stablecoins.
And and what's going to happen is that 350 trillion dollars stablecoin industry is going to gradually begin to adopt digital credit, and they're going to realize that the you know, a much better idea is a Bitcoin-backed stablecoin that pays 8%. And so the the Bitcoin community hasn't had a lot in common with the crypto community for the past few years, but now the the interests are crossing, and uh and tokenizing stablecoins and staking them to generate yield using digital credit that drives demand for Bitcoin means that the Solana ecosystem, the Ethereum ecosystem, the DeFi ecosystem, every protocol, every digital token idea, every perpetual le- source of leverage, all of the DeFi exchanges, all of them are going to be engines driving demand for Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor is looking at the market from a completely different angle, and what he sees is not just growth. He sees a supply crisis forming in real time. He is talking about the creation of 20 to 100 billion dollars in new credit that could flow directly into Bitcoin over the next 12 months. At the same time, he estimates that only around 10 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin is actually available for sale on the open market.
That imbalance is where things start to break, because markets are driven by supply and demand, and when demand overwhelms supply at that scale, price does not gradually adjust. It reprices aggressively. But Saylor takes it a step further. He believes this demand is not just coming from retail or even traditional institutions.
It is coming from the formation of digital credit itself. New financial products built on top of Bitcoin that allow capital to move faster and more efficiently, and as that system grows, it feeds directly back into Bitcoin demand. At the same time, regulatory clarity in the United States is starting to improve.
There is growing coordination between agencies like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Treasury, and the Securities and Exchange Commission. That kind of clarity reduces friction for large institutions, making it easier for banks and funds to enter the space at scale. And then there is the part that most people are overlooking.
Saylor believes the divide between Bitcoin and the rest of crypto is starting to close. Stablecoins, decentralized finance, and other ecosystems are beginning to connect through the concept of Bitcoin-backed yield. That means more activity across the entire crypto market could ultimately drive demand back into Bitcoin, and once that flywheel starts
turning, it becomes very difficult to stop. This is a global phenomena and the money is in Japan or in Brazil or in Switzerland or in Germany or in the UAE or the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or the US or Canada. There are going to be products in every one of those places I think that are going to be built on digital credit and on ultimately on digital capital.
And I I think that the entire industry is going to accelerate starting now. I I think there's going to be a Cambrian explosion. Just the past 12 weeks I've seen more innovation in this space than in the previous 5 years. Yeah, and then to talk about kerosene and gas, I mean the the next up cycle is only going to accelerate having seen the resilience of Bitcoin through this part of the cycle uh and the advancements we've been able to make.
Uh I'm just curious in terms of what your thoughts are, what's next? What should we be excited about closing out this year of 2026? Um well, I think Bitcoin's going to rally. I I I think there's a lot of capital flowing into Bitcoin right now and at the rate that uh digital credit is forming and at the rate you saw our buy this morning, we bought the entire supply last week, then Strive announced a massive buy, then there's a massive bank credit coming online.
All the big banks, JP Morgan, City, Schwab, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, they're all coming online. Michael Saylor then zooms out, and what he describes is not a localized trend. It is a global shift that is already in motion. He points to capital forming across multiple regions at the same time. Japan, Brazil, Switzerland, Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Canada.
This is not one market driving Bitcoin, it is many markets moving together. And that kind of synchronized demand changes how cycles behave. Because when capital flows in from multiple regions, it becomes harder for momentum to fade. Saylor believes this wave is being driven by the rapid growth of digital credit, new financial products, new rails, and new ways for institutions to gain exposure to Bitcoin without friction.
And over just the past few months, he notes that innovation in this space has accelerated at a pace he has not seen in years. That acceleration matters, because the last time crypto saw this level of innovation, it led to a surge in new applications, new capital, and ultimately higher prices. But this time, the players involved are much larger.
Major banks are beginning to participate more actively. Firms like JP Morgan, City, Morgan Stanley, and others are moving deeper into digital assets, whether through custody, trading infrastructure, or tokenization efforts. That creates a different kind of market structure. Instead of isolated cycles driven mainly by retail speculation, this becomes a system supported by institutional capital and global demand.
And when that kind of foundation is in place, upside phases tend to be stronger and more sustained. But what makes this even more powerful is timing. Because all of this growth is happening while Bitcoin supply remains constrained. And that combination is where things can accelerate quickly. When you put Tom Lee and Michael Saylor's views together, a very clear picture starts to form.
This is not shaping up to be a slow grind higher. This is setting up for a phase where multiple forces hit the market at the same time. On one side, you have Bitcoin approaching a potential supply shock. Demand is rising through institutional flows, new financial products, and expanding access through ETFs.
At the same time, long-term holders continue to hold a large portion of supply while new issuance remains limited. That creates pressure that builds quietly until it releases all at once. On the other side, you have Ethereum evolving in. It is becoming infrastructure for tokenization, stablecoins, and increasingly for large-scale financial experimentation.
Major institutions are not just watching anymore. They are actively building, testing, and allocating capital into this ecosystem. And then there is the macro backdrop. Recent data has shown signs of economic activity stabilizing with manufacturing indicators starting to recover after long periods of weakness.
Liquidity conditions are slowly improving, and markets are beginning to price in a more supportive , crypto tends to respond faster and more aggressively than most sectors. So, what does that mean in simple terms? If Bitcoin begins to outperform gold again, if supply remains constrained while demand rises, and if Ethereum continues to capture real-world usage, then the next phase of this market could move much faster than people are prepared for. And by the time it becomes obvious, most of the move may already be underway. .
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