저자: DavidRuff · 외국인
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데이비드 러프는 제이미 다이먼의 발언을 인용하며 인플레이션이 쉽게 잡히지 않고 금리 인상만으로는 해결되지 않는다는 입장을 밝힘. 금리는 인플레이션보다 높아야 실질 수익이 나는데 현재는 그렇지 못해 단기적으로, 어쩌면 장기적으로도 마이너스 실질금리가 이어질 것이라고 주장함. 이로 인해 예금·국채로는 물가 상승을 따라잡지 못해 손실이 발생한다고 봄. 정부 정책에 대해서는 재정지출 축소와 규제 완화가 필요하다고 보며, 공급 측면(주택 공급 확대)을 해결하지 않고 가격을 낮추는 방식은 일부를 희생시키는 것에 불과하다고 비판함. 양적완화와 MMT로 인한 통화 확대의 대가가 아직 치러지지 않았다고 주장함. 연준이 내년 150만 명 실업을 전망했다고 언급하며, 실제 실업률은 공식 4%보다 8% 이상일 수 있다고 봄. 이에 부업 준비와 비상식량·물 등 대비를 권고함. 러시아가 중국과 인도에 석유를 대폭 할인 판매하고 있으며, 유럽은 우회 경로로 같은 석유를 비싸게 사들이고 있다고 설명함. 올겨울 유럽 산업 셧다운과 식량·에너지 부족이 예상되며, 이는 미국과 캐나다 부동산 가격 하락으로 전이될 것이라고 전망함. 주식시장은 S&P500과 TSX가 하락세이며, 두 분기 연속 GDP 감소를 근거로 이미 경기침체 상태라고 주장함. 고레버리지 대도시 부동산 보유자에게 큰 충격이 올 수 있다고 경고함. 결론적으로 뚜렷한 상승·하락 종목 추천보다는 경기침체·부동산 하락에 대비하라는 경고와 자사 부동산 서비스·강의 홍보에 무게를 둔 영상임.
다듬은 글
everyone is David Ruff here thank you very much for coming by today we're going to be talking about all the crazy things that are going on in the market it is like a tsunami of stuff that is happening every day and there is great opportunity on the other side of this but there is going to be some rough stormy seas in the meantime let's check out a couple of the Articles from today so we can keep abreast of what's going on all right you guys if we just check out this uh first article here you guys this is from a guy that you need to know if you don't know about this guy his name is Jamie Diamond Jamie Diamond this guy is amazing he runs the JP Morgan he's the CEO now when I'm saying amazing I mean that this guy is huge he's a big guy whether you like him or not it's a different thing but JP Morgan uh is a massive Bank when they say something you want to be listening Jamie Diamond on how the government can solve inflation his answer is it can't now this guy has obviously a huge amount of Interest all of his stocks his company all of it has to do with the prices of stock so he doesn't want them to go down or does he because he can short the market so that means that he can make his bets that as the market goes down he can make money on that very famously in 2020 Bill Ackman made over a billion dollars uh it may have been a bit more actually just in a couple weeks because he was betting it for it to go down so there's all kinds of complex stuff that happens in the banks you guys but let's pick apart a couple of the things that he was saying number one he says that it is going to go down and there's nothing you can do about fixing the inflation okay Jamie Diamond is a very smart guy Let's uh just look at some of the comments I put here he says and the Central Bank just hiked rates three quarters of a point for the third consecutive time but a previous rate hikes haven't done the trick yet haven't done the trick yet right we keep hearing this all the time that the rate has to go higher to combat inflation but remember through combat inflation the mortgage rate or the central bank rate has to be above what inflation is so if they're stating that the interest rate is eight or nine percent you would need to have mortgage rates at 10 11 percent over the price of inflation but we're not seeing that and let me tell you there's no way they can get to that we wouldn't be able to afford the interest on our loans so in the short term we most likely on possibly forever are going to see negative yielding rates which is very important for us to be able to track where we're going to be as we go through this process a lot of people will be losing let's continue on with Mr Jamie dimon month over month percent changes in the overall CPI inflation rate are lower than earlier in 2022 of course we've raised the rates to the moon but many experts wonder if it's enough especially as the prices of basic expenses like food and shelter continue to rise this is where we have a problem you guys on your first day in economic school or in high school you're going to learn about something called supply and demand so if you are going to have this low percentage paid in interest and a huge percentage of inflation you're losing okay let's break it down for something if I asked you would you lend me a hundred dollars and you said Yeah Dave I'll do it for how much and I said okay this is what I'm going to do you give me a hundred dollars I'm going to give you three dollars back at the end of the year and you're like wow it's not a lot but okay at least I made three dollars on my money but then I tell you wait a second there's a 15 charge just to be able to do the transaction and then you're scratching your head you're like hang on a second I'm going to give you a hundred dollars I'm only going to make three but then I'm going to lose 15.
I'm down 12 I lost money I did you a favor and I lost money that is exactly what's happening right now when you borrow money or you have to pay interest you have to pay interest to somebody so when you could put your money in the bank and only make two percent on it or if you buy a treasury make three percent or something like that but you're losing 10 12 15 in inflation you lost money on the deal here you're putting up all the money you're risking your money and you're still losing bad deal bad deal so when they say experts are wondering if it's enough to combat inflation I don't know what expert you're talking about because I think most nine-year-olds be would be able to tell you that that's wrong um as you see here there was somebody from Congress senator John Kennedy he wrote that inflation is gutting the American people like a fish not just America by the way all the other countries who are printing which is all of them okay let's continue down Mr Jamie Diamond he says some good things all right now he's trying to be super politically correct okay he's just remember that he's trying to be very politically correct he says I think a little less fiscal spending would be good saying 30 percent of GDP in the last two years it's very a little unprecedented well uh first of all it's not a little bit unprecedented you guys this has never happened before in the history of the world so not a little bit in uh not a little bit not even close Okay so let's get back to Mr Jamie here he says um when asked by Mr Kennedy if the government needed to get off the backs of the American people in terms of Regulation Diamond agreed so this is the difference right we have something that we call capitalism in the world this is where you can buy and sell your home whenever you want you can buy and sell your businesses whenever you want capitalism is the system right that you can get in work hard and improve your life that's the American dream the Canadian dream is that you can improve the quality of your life if you work hard here is the problem we don't really live in free market capitalism anymore where we could just run a business there's so many regulations and rules and stuff in the past you may not have needed to have a full-time lawyer on staff and a full-time regularity um uh person that looks after the regulations you might not have to have like in real estate from us a compliance officer you don't need a master accountant to run the trust accounts there's so many rules that are changing all on and on and on it's so burdensome it's it's ridiculous we have to read like three four hours a day to keep up on all the changes that is happening it's crazy how many regulations so that's why JP um JP Morgan Jamie Diamond here is saying yeah if you reduce the regulations we can then spend those extra 500 year uh 500 hours a year back on doing productive things instead of just wasting so much time all right let's get back to Mr Jamie dimon we need less regulation yes Diamond also noted that the federal government should also be considering actions around continuing the improved the supply side of the equation taxation immigration regulation Health Care infrastructure Bill okay we need to see this because this is this is going to be the key here okay he noted because all that the governments are doing is talking about getting rid of demand this is making sure that we fix the supply side of the issue right taxation immigration and health care okay so listen guys it doesn't matter it doesn't matter what you think uh I'm not talking about one certain government one some certain country doesn't really matter I just want you to imagine this I have four people here with four houses okay then all of a sudden those four people in the four houses they have a couple babies they uh maybe they have a grandma living with them and then a whole bunch of immigrants come to the country or whatever okay now there's more people than there is houses what is the answer if everyone has to get out of the rain tonight the only answer is we got to take those people and put them inside the same homes or we got to make everybody homeless okay the government solution here if you had those four people in those houses their solution is we're going to drop the prices of the houses maybe bankrupt a bunch of people the people who are bankrupted are now on the street now it's cheap enough for the new people to move in and buy the same homes we're still stuck with the same amount of people in the homes and the same amount of people on the streets we're just moving it around does that make any sense to anybody no it does not nobody with common sense would say that works and the system that we live in today mmt quantitative easing money printing mmt is modern monetary Theory Theory where we could print as much money as we want nothing bad will ever happen Okay so we printed a lot of money and look what's been happening the bill has come due and there's a lot of payment and I mean the bill hasn't been paid yet the pain is going to last for a while as payback for what we did over the past couple years so this is where Jamie dimon is talking about the supply side okay let's let's look at what he said again he said we need to fix the actions around the supply side of the equation that's what's important you guys if we have those four people in their homes and all these extra people we need to build more homes that's what we got to do we need more homes so the United States it depends who you look at five million six million houses short Canada's short about a million houses we need houses for people that's what we need so we've got to be putting all our effort time uh possibly money coming from the government possibly taxations uh discounts on your tax to be able to get those people into homes we got to build homes instead the idea right now is we're going to wipe people out and then the homes will come down to a better price it sounds great in the news you guys when we're talking about oh we're gonna we're going to lower prices for everybody that means taking it away from some people to give it to other people how about we just make more of it let's just change the fact that we talk about houses and call them bananas for a second if there was a massive problem and we were short bananas on the entire planet there's no bananas for everyone to eat and the price of bananas went from a dollar a pound to two dollars a pound and everybody is upset by that the answer is not make bananas four dollars a pound now and then then we'll cut about it'll become balanced no go plant some more damn bananas okay because people want more bananas the answer isn't just raise the price to the moon and that's what's kind of happening with all of this imbalances started in 2008 right when they were printing all this money and now it's continuing the craziness is continuing and it's gotten to like the crescendo you know so there's going to be some big big changes that are going to be coming up you guys all right so let's um let's talk about the the next one oh my article isn't opening guys but the Fed was projecting 1.5 million people to be out of work next week uh next year 1.5 million more people will not have jobs in the United States that equates to in Canada around 150 to 200 000 people here will lose their jobs in Canada but that is accounting only for four percent four percent unemployment rate when in reality I would expect to see something more around 8 percent unemployment coming could even go higher so we gotta make sure that your employment is going to be secure and start having possibly a second job um while we're on that topic about making sure that your employment is sure right we have to make sure that we have a second job your wife is going to have a second job whatever the jobs that you have are going to remain secure because you have to make sure that you're going to make it through this really really tough time this is where I want you to build up some stuff in your home make sure that you have some water some food whatever whatever just in case there's ever shortages my mom runs out of power all the time so she has to have water food some backup power right she has to have that kind of stuff and she doesn't even live that far out of town like one kilometer but because of that we have to be prepared um all right you guys so let's look at the next one Janet Yellen I actually pulled up a map Jen Yellen says Russia is offering enormous discounts on oil to China uh yeah that's correct um but this is the crazy part okay what do you think China is doing instead of India so this is the crazy part to me if I need 10 liters of gas to get to work and back I need 10 liters like rationing it down to eight liters isn't going to work I gotta get to work so no matter what the price is I have to pay it no matter what I need that gas to get to work and come home right so if the price goes up you're just stuck paying it Europe hasn't really cut back much on their oil they are still selling the oil now I'm going to show you the map in a second but China is friends with Russia right they're right next to each other and Europe used to have a pipe from Russia that connected right over to to Europe in fact let's uh let's show you the map you guys and I'm going to show you what the Google Maps is on the map you could see that Russia is touching right away to China over in the East they can send oil down to China at massive discounts China then takes the oil and it puts it on a tanker and ships it all the way around Africa all the way over to Europe now Europe gets the oil and burns the oil at massive premiums 500 600 percent premiums massive and they're like screw you Russia we're not taking your oil that's flowing through the pipe through Belarus you know to Germany or under the Baltic Sea which is up here they have a pipe that runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany or the ones that run down to Ukraine they're like no we're not taking the Russian oil through a pipeline and then they're like haha I showed you and then they take the oil from China and that that actually came from Russia to begin with send it over to Europe at hugely inflated places and they run their cars on that scenario one The Burning Russian oil scenario two they're running on Russian oil same thing but they are self-imposed this massive premium to China China's just raking in the money uh unbelievable uh unbelievable only in a world like today could something like that happen right now what do you think is happening to the prices of their homes in Europe now that fuel prices are going to the Moon everybody is going to be selling their homes you're going to be in for a massive bad fall over there now why do we talk about Europe all the time is because whatever happens there has gonna have contagion here the way all the banking systems are are fixed right 1945 London uh United States Canada were all intertwined when all of the industry collapses in Europe over this winter they can't build anything because they can't afford the gas all of Germany's industry is shutting down wanting to relocate to the states Chinese industry is being shut down moved to the United States it's a whole world shake-up so this winter with food shortages and oil shortages home prices are going to go down there what does that do it takes the market what is it going to do to my properties down in the United States it's going to drop the prices in the America it's going to drop the prices in Canada a lot of dropping everywhere so if all of your value all of your Equity is sitting in large properties in large cities with high leverage you're probably in for a very bad winter and a very bad shock and all as you see all your life savings evaporate and that's what I want to avoid for you guys I don't want you to get hurt like that um but if you go and look at what's been happening on the S P 500 the S P 500 is uh all red the TSX which is the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada says it is a sea of red but ironically the the articles of today look at this the sell-off risks or boosts the odds of a recession unbelievable unbelievable okay since we ever even had textbooks two quarters of declining GDP meant we're in a recession which means we were officially in a recession in July but all of us knew that it was a recession in April when we saw the absolute crash coming down yet nobody will admit that we're still in a recession I still to this day I have millions of comments coming in personal message personal emails asking do you think we're going to start into a recession I'm just shaking my head because the news is telling us everything is fine it's not fine so if you're not protecting yourself you're going to get hurt now I'm trying to stand from the top of the mountain and scream it out that we're going to be having a lot of trouble and it's kind of hard man it's kind of lonely too get a lot of blowback a lot of people think that it's crazy but listen you have to take steps so my dad always said you had to be a a better be a year early than a day late so we used to go on fishing trips and stuff and we would have a camper if we would bring a saw as a backup but we had a chainsaw always having backups because we knew when we were out in the woods that we needed to know that we had backups and we had everything we need why did I bring a rain jacket well it wasn't raining the day I left it was just in case it rained so you got to do all the just in cases advice I I say fill up your home get some stuff stock up on things and get your financial life in order as you know I've been writing two books you guys I'm going to be having these books come out soon I'm also having an entire course that's coming up we're going to be adding a wait list that you can add the waitlist to get more information when it comes out uh we're going to be putting it in all our YouTube descriptions so if you want uh one of our new books or you want to talk about the courses you know you can go to those links and get yourselves on the wait list you guys anyway as you know I'm always here for your health wealth and happiness remember that I work in the beautiful city of Toronto if you ever need me you can reach out to me at Rough Team Realty this is where we sell properties for people faster for more money we operate all around Ontario but we are advisors and Consultants all around North America to get you to your millionaire fire you know what fire is if I um Financial independent retire early we try to get you to a full retirement within 36 months if you have the funds to start off on the plan so if you guys ever need us you can always reach out to us please send this to one person if you think any of this stuff can help we really want you to survive and not just survive but Thrive there's opportunities when these bad times count you can take advantage of them and make money off of them and then we can have your family set up for decades to come anyway I love you guys I hope that you have a fantastic night and I'll talk to you soon thanks so much for sticking around if you like that video you might like this one and maybe something like that
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