저자: David · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 마이클 버리의 경고를 빌려 주식·부동산 전반의 하락(데드캣 바운스 후 추가 급락)을 주장하며 '전부 팔라'는 메시지를 던진다. 주식 시장 분석: 버리의 'sell' 트윗을 인용해 S&P500 반등은 2000년 닷컴 버블 붕괴 때처럼 단기에 그칠 것이라 주장한다. 데드캣 바운스 사례(2000~2003, 1973~74)를 보여주며 하락폭이 상승폭보다 크다고 설명한다. 닷컴 차트 비교: 현재 주가 흐름이 2001년과 유사하다고 보며, 지난해 11월과 올해 1월의 반등을 그 패턴으로 해석한다. 2000~2003년 저점은 고점 대비 약 80% 하락이었다고 언급한다. 금리·모기지 관점: 채권 시장 흐름에 따라 모기지 금리가 하락했고, 이로 인해 재융자 수요가 늘었을 뿐 신규 주택 구매가 늘어난 것은 아니라고 주장한다. 중앙은행이 금리를 추가 인상할 것이라고 전망한다. 토론토 부동산 수치: 최근 12개월 거래 9만4천 건, 평균 가격 약 30% 하락(약 130만 달러에서 100만 달러), 거래 기간은 3일에서 30일로 늘었다고 제시한다. 1베드룸 콘도는 전년비 +10%, 2베드룸 콘도 +12%, 단독주택 -30%, 상업용 부동산 일부 지역 -40%로 지역·유형별 차이가 크다고 설명한다. 시장 세분화 조언: 부동산은 지역·상품별로 완전히 다르므로 단순 답은 없고, 저축률·위험 감내도·자금 여력 등 개인 상황에 따라 판단해야 한다고 강조한다. 중국 전망 대립: 피터 짐머(Peter Zeihan)는 중국 붕괴를, 레이 달리오는 중국의 세계 장악을 주장하는 상반된 책을 추천하며 독자가 직접 판단하라고 권한다. 개인 일화: 아버지와 숲에서 길을 잃었던 경험을 비유로, 변화하는 경제에서 스스로 계획을 세우고 수정하라는 메시지를 전한다. 행동 권고: 지난 4월부터 부동산 매도를 권해 왔으며, 고객들이 '기다려 보자'며 매도를 미루다 손실을 입는다고 경고한다. 가족의 재무 계획을 미리 세우라고 당부한다.
다듬은 글
that must mean that a bunch of new home buyers are going out there and buying new properties and the answer is a hella no that's not happening at all sell sell absolutely everything this is the message that is coming from Michael burry that famed investor and we know we had that awesome movie many years ago now after the GFC it was called The Big Short if you haven't seen that I really think everyone should it's a really entertaining movie it's very easy to understand and I think it's great when we look at the world the way it is today now Michael burry made billions of dollars by identifying the problem that was in the market before now earlier in the year Michael burry was tweeting you cannot believe how short I am he has sold a lot of his stocks that he's kept on to a couple including like some private prisons for example because whether the economy goes up or down for some reason we still keep producing criminals but let's take a look at what he's warning us today you guys I got a couple things to show you this is the article that I was talking about this is Michael burry and he's giving his grave warning to investors with the one word tweet today that just says sell now he is warning everybody about that and he's saying that the s p 500's rebound is going to be short-lived similar to the.com crash now what he is warning about you guys is something that is called the dead cat bounce if you've never heard of a dead cat bounce man you should know about it because it's happening all the time in the market that there is going to be a balance the stock market doesn't drop at a regular interval the entire way down it's kind of jagged it's kind of Sawtooth all the time let's take a look at an example you guys take a look at this chart right here of dead can't bounce around 2000 2002 the.com do you notice it was down 11 up 12 down 27 up 19 down 26 up 21 down 8 up 8 down 32 plus 21.
but do you notice that the drops are a lot larger than the gains but the gains sucker people in because they believe they're out of time now where they can get their money back and it keeps dropping but notice that these drops happen for from 2000 all the way down to 2003 that's two years and so people have very short-term memories and even since 2000 you guys has gotten worse now everybody seems to want to make ten thousand percent on dog coin of some kind that is what I wanted to point out to you that's what a dead cap bounce is and if you notice over here we can see that stocks Fallen by 45 after Rising almost 50 they go on to Fall by 80.
oh my goodness they just suckered everyone in and you notice there was gains 8 9 12 14 and there was Drops 23 27 35 we saw 20 dead cat bounce in 1973 and 74. so what is that now let's take a look at this chart he's referring to 2001. do you notice that the market was going bananas bananas bananas bananas and this is the.com Crisis all the way up here super high hitting an absolute record and when we did it drops like crazy but look at that bump up that bump up is the dead cat bounce that he's referring to then it massive drops a little up massive drop a little bit up massive drop and you notice that this all plays out till 2003 but can you see where it bottoms out finally is down around 1200 and it was all the way past five thousand so it dropped 80 percent but it took two years to do that now let's fast forward to where we are today because this is showing us where he expects now if we go back obviously to 2020 it was dodgy in 2020 we know that and then as the money printers were turned on it just went absolutely parabolic hitting records after record after record until the fall of 2021.
now as you can see it massive drops or is a bump up massive drops or is a bump up now this was coming back into November of last year there was a bump up but if we zoom out on this calendar this whole map it looks a lot like 2001 again now since December there has been this General Trend upward in January so my question to you is what do you think is telling us that there's a big bump in January I can tell you as you guys know I'm a real estate broker operator in the beautiful city of Toronto Canada we operate as advisors and Consultants to people all over North America and if it's something that you're interested in you can click the link in the bio below but let me tell you something that the interest rates for your mortgages follow the bond market and so as we've seen it softened we've seen some of the mortgage rates come down recently so people have jumped in the market to refinance their property and kind of lock in a lower rate without waiting for the rates to go higher because as we saw the central bank today I was mentioning that they're going to be raising the rates again so they're going to tight in but from the banking perspective they're like well there's an uptick in mortgages that is being asked so that must mean that a bunch of new home buyers are going out there and buying new properties and the answer is a hella no that's not happening at all we're seeing these people go in and lock in those rates but it has nothing to do with measuring where the market is so remember that these rates that are going up right now this is not normal now let me show you some interesting information about Toronto where I am so if you look at this property right here there has been 94 000 homes that have sold in the past 12 months in Toronto as you see down here 94 000 properties have sold in the past 12 months that is a lot of houses can you see them all here now if we wanted to go bananas we could actually zoom into the individual areas and look at every single house that has sold so I'm just trying to say there's a lot of data here but if we look at all the data remember there is no Market that doesn't happen the market doesn't really exist there's many many different markets I'm going to do this live with you because I want you to actually believe the results so if you look at all of Toronto oh in the past 12 months this doesn't matter if it is um condos or houses everything put together it is down on average 17 17 now that is like cataclysmic okay because if this happened in any other time in history that home prices drop 10 somewhere they would have already been waving a white flag and said I give up Mercy Mercy the market is tanking but for some crazy reason we're not even admitting that there is a recession which kind of tells me something for all of us we need to learn the answers for ourselves because the writing was in the tea leaves from years ago try to pick up a book like the end of the world is just the beginning by Peter zian fantastic book try to go read this book some of the best books of last year Ray dalio the changing World Order fantastic books for you to get a little bit of an idea in the world so remember that the economies they cannot wave a flag and tell everybody that the world is going to come to an end they can't do do that things have to proceed in its natural way but majority of people aren't going to take the time to go and figure out the answers for themselves so be careful where you get all your information from is my point so let's go back to this screen over here and I want to show you this is the prices that have fallen so once they started raising interest rates wham wham wham wham so before it was almost 1.3 million a year ago a year ago today February 22 and we've just seen the prices getting pummeled pummeled pummeled pummeled now it's at a million dollars average loss of properties is 30 percent here the reason why you see this say 16.8 is because it's measuring since January okay but in the past 12 months rolling 12 months we don't have January yet we just finished it looked from top to bottom we're down 30 now let's take a look that's on average all properties let's take a look at these sales to asking ratio to see where we're at back last year people were off offering a hundred and twenty percent of asking that is the average I don't even know I've never seen that in my life on average people were paying 20 percent more than what they were asking now of course people were being stupid listing their property exceptionally low it was crazy okay crazy crazy crazy but the average being 20 over unbelievable and if we've seen the interest rates getting clobbered we've seen this decline decline decline in prices and now people are still expecting to get a price under under what it's listed at so be careful how you list things if we look at how long it's taking to sell a property it's not really surprise in a lot of areas last year it was taking three days to sell now it's taking 30 days to sell and so like I'm always saying there is not just one market you guys and it doesn't matter what city you're in there's major cities you know in the millions there's medium cities you know that are under a million they're small towns that are ten thousand and they're all going to operate completely differently but even if we just take a big big big city like where I am in Toronto you can pick up one city block so you would say that's all in the same area code it's all the exact same one bedroom condo right now is up ten percent year over year up two bedroom condo up twelve percent year over year I thought you said the Market's going down David but you can look at single family homes that are freeholds that are down 30 percent year over year so in the same couple blocks you'll have a condo that's up 10 and a house that's down 30.
and you'll also have commercial real estate that's down 40 percent in some areas so it really really isn't just local everything is hyper local and Hyper specific as a type of product that's like going to the grocery store and saying that all food is up 10 well eggs we saw are up 60 but you may run into something else like celery that has not gone up this is what I'm trying to say is every product is different and so we have to really really sit back and do some more interesting numbers with that this is why people are always throwing out the easy answer thinking that there may be an easy answer where should I buy real estate what kind of real estate should I buy well it depends on your personal situation right whatever your savings rate is what your risk tolerance is what kind of timeline do you have how much cash do you have can you get a credit what's your credit score like I mean it's unbelievable how many questions that you can go through and so this is what I want you to think about be inspired to be curious and to try to find those answers but these guys Peter zian and Ray dalio are some of the best books I read last year here's the crazy part this guy is telling you that China is going to collapse within 10 years this guy is telling you that China is going to take over the world how can the two of the smartest guys on the planet have opposite opinions and so this is where it's up to you to read this stuff and really be able to distill It Down based on your knowledge to come up with a very very good action plan an action plan on how to get out I'm going to tell you one story about my dad my dad greatest friend of my entire life he was a legend and I love him more than life itself he took me hunting before and he handed me after we were walking around the forest many many many miles from home he handed me a map and a compass now he'd give me a ton of training on maps and Compasses before and so that map and that Compass I knew how to work him but here I am like 12 years old and he got me lost in the woods we had no idea where we were like I had no idea my dad did and he said which way do I go home how do we get out of here I'm like I don't know and I just pointed like that way and he goes nope and he gave me a map and a compass and he said get us out of here now he started following me in the wrong direction for hours going the wrong direction I think back like how on Earth did my dad do that like walking like hours in the wrong direction but he was doing this to teach me a lesson he wanted me to have this self-confidence to be able to look at the map see the problems see the lake see the mountains see where we got to go and formulate that plan in my head and stick to that plan to get us out knowing that I'm going to make mistakes along the road and I'm going to recorrect along my path until I get home I want you to think about that so me getting home at the time it was one of the worst experiences for me I got to tell you I was crying I'm lost I don't know where I am I'm freezing I'm scared right but when I got home I got to tell you I was the happiest kid in the world because I was beaming with pride that I did this I did this but it was because of the things that my dad had taught me so my point to you is go get some books start reading the books follow people assimilate all that information be curious my friends about this type of stuff because as the economy is always changing and you're gaining experience you're going to be able to formulate that plan like I did on that map know where I have to go as things are changing as you run into a creek or another problem you're going to be always recorrecting always knowing where you're heading and that same principle that I learned at 12 years old I still apply in my life today so thanks Dad for all that stuff anyway I hope that my dad is helping you a little bit in your journey things are going to continue to change we're in a really bad situation as of last April I started telling people they got to sell their properties and here's the problem the majority of people will ask their best friend who has no experience or anything what their opinion is and for some reason that will hold more water for them now this is all humans this is all humans and the typically we only do something that is too late almost everyone one of the clients that I've dealt with in our real estate practice as a brokerage and you could always reach out to us where we operate all over the greater Toronto area we sell properties all over but almost all the clients typically will all say well I'm going to hang on and see what happens and hang on and see what happens and this is what wipes people out did you notice those dead cat pounces it'll drop 80 percent in a couple years now I'm not saying real estate's going to drop 80 percent it's not possible material labor is still going up but you're already seeing a decimation imagine 30 percent of 1.3 million you're now down four hundred thousand dollars do you know what I mean your entire life savings is gonzo and now when you go to refinance the banks are not going to lend you that money so big dangers that are coming you guys so be smart plan out that entire route for your family because I'm sure you can make it if this video gives you any value at all please consider subscribing tell your friends about it it really helps us out here at the channel and I'll talk to you guys on the next video thanks very much for coming by we really appreciate it thanks so much for sticking around if you like that video you might like this one and maybe something like that
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