저자: KenGriffin · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체는 결국 불가피하지만 향후 약 4분기(1년) 내 가능성은 낮다고 본다. 경기침체 원인: 침체 시점과 촉발점(tipping point)은 예측 불가이며, 과거 정책당국도 50년간 맞추지 못했다고 언급. 침체 요인: 중국의 제로코로나 정책이 공급망에 큰 타격을 주어 인플레이션을 자극하고, 이것이 연준의 공격적 긴축을 부추겨 침체를 유발할 수 있다고 봄. 우크라이나 전쟁과 에너지 시장 혼란, 러시아 리스크도 잠재적 촉발점으로 언급(발생 가능성은 낮지만 심각도는 높음). 침체 메커니즘: 기업이 핵심역량 밖으로 과도하게 확장→수익 둔화→고금리·주택시장 둔화 등이 계기→고용 축소로 이어진다고 설명. 소비 전망: 최근 데이터 부진은 미국 소비자 약화보다 기업들이 원가 상승분을 소비자에게 전가하지 못한 데서 비롯됐다고 해석. 월마트·타깃 등은 가격 인상을 통해 비용을 넘길 것이며, 저소득층 가정은 소비 축소 등 힘든 선택을 해야 할 것이라고 봄. 스태그플레이션 여부: 실업률 3.6%, 공석 약 1,100만 건 등 강한 고용 지표를 근거로 아직 스태그플레이션 국면은 아니라고 판단. 1분기 GDP 성장 부진은 있었으나 향후 몇 분기는 플러스 성장 전망. 구조적 변화: 탈세계화(디글로벌라이제이션)가 인플레이션 환경의 구조적 원인이며, 미국 노동력 부족이 지속. 미국 취업자 수는 팬데믹 이전보다 아직 적고 수백만 명 더 필요하다고 언급. 금리·주식 전망: 연준 긴축으로 실질금리가 2023년 플러스 전환 가능성이 높고, 이는 성장주(먼 미래 이익) 밸류에이션에 타격. 시장은 이를 반영해 주가가 하락하고 성장주가 가치주 대비 크게 하락, 가치주가 상대 우위를 보일 것으로 전망. 결론: 침체는 불가피하나 단기(약 1년 내) 가능성은 낮다는 입장.
다듬은 글
we don't know what causes recessions to start we know the ingredients that create the kindling wood that allows recession to happen but what actually is the tipping points often unknown you know there's some really important sea changes taking place globally china's zero covert policy continues to put real real impact on supply chains which is incredibly pro-inflationary that creates more of an impetus for the fed to have more aggressive policy decisions which could cause recession the war in the ukraine of course is creating chaos the energy markets in addition to the horrific humanitarian crisis and and the war in the ukraine if it were to take a a market turn for the worse in terms of of russia's willingness to engage in acts that are beyond comprehension that of course could be a tipping point into a recession an overextended pandemic that has crippled the global economy for over two years over leveraged banking sectors poor monetary policies weakening fiat currencies and a war these are some of the key issues that continue to pull down the global economy as it stands many market experts and analysts are convinced that a global recession is inevitable and various economic indicators of the world's strongest economies indicate that we are indeed drawing closer to a recessionary period the markets are down the various covid driven supply chain issues continue to drive up inflation rates and more central banks are committing to quantitative tightening policies to bring down skyrocketing prices the downside is that such policies will take us from an inflationary environment to a recessionary one in a recent question and answer session with bloomberg intelligence ken griffin the founder of ceos and co-cio citadel talks about some of these crucial issues and their effects on the economy of the united states unlike other market experts that are certain that recession is only weeks or months away griffin takes a slightly bullish approach though he states that it is inevitable he thinks it might still be a while before we slip into a period of major economic decline please listen as we bring you griffin's interview but before we do be sure to like this video and drop your comments below thanks and enjoy the video markets are really afraid of the inflation story because that ties back to the fed's policy path and how high our real rate's going to go and what we're seeing in the markets is a rotation from growth stocks with earnings very far in the future towards stocks that are much more value stocks earnings here in the present and this reflects the fact that real rates for the first time in a very long time are likely to go positive in 2023 and that freaks out the markets it really changes valuations it just completely rewrites the valuation playbook which has been one of people really able to invest in growth because earnings in the far far future still had a very high net present value is a recession now inevitable well okay in every economic cycle it ends with the recession so yes uh recession is inevitable the question is is when timing wise and we don't think a recession is likely over the course of the next let's call it four quarters for sake of the argument and then what happens after four quarters right like you know to put the sort of you know finger on when a recession is going to occur has been a a failing endeavor of every policy maker for the last roughly 50 years we don't know what causes recessions to start we know the ingredients that create the kindling wood that allows recession to happen but what actually is the tipping points often unknown you know there's some really important sea changes taking place globally china's zero coveted policy continues to put real real impact on supply chains which is incredibly pro-inflationary that creates more of an impetus for the fed to have more aggressive policy decisions which could cause recession the war in the ukraine of course is creating chaos the energy markets in addition to the horrific humanitarian crisis and and the war in the ukraine if it were to take a a market turn for the worse in terms of of russia's willingness to engage in acts that are beyond comprehension that of course could be a tipping point into a recession again low probability but very high severity so we don't know what will be the tipping point generally speaking recessions come from companies that pursued growth initiatives with with with frankly pretty poor prospects they over expand into areas outside their core competency earnings start to dissipate the economy starts to to wobble higher interest rates for example housing markets slows down would be an impetus and then they start to reduce the size of their workforce to cut costs to try to navigate through that more difficult period of time what happens to the u.s consumer and actually was that was it that that triggered the sell-off the fact that maybe it's weaker than we thought well actually the data wasn't about the weakness of the us consumer the data was about the inability of corporations to pass costs through to consumers now how much of that is is is demand elasticity probably very little much of it probably has to do with just the time it takes companies to reorganize their affairs to deal with just the litany of supply chain challenges they're facing everything from transportation to goods procurement but again just to be clear so you think that if you're a walmart you can pass on these you know costs going up to your consumer without a bite back when inflation is already up and everything else they buy look if you're walmart you just saw target's number and you're going yes i'm going to be in a position to put cost prices through increases through because both these firms have to i mean the bottom line is they're not in position to absorb the entire supply chain stock or shock themselves they're going to be putting price increases through and the consumer can take that the consumer let's be clear take it i'm sure what that means for for for a family that's in the lower quartile of income this is a really tough situation okay they're going to have to make some pretty painful decisions in terms of consumption trade-offs after sharing a negative market outlook griffin switches to some positive ones he declares that we have not entered a period of stagflation yet as a result of strong indicators like the low unemployment rate please listen to griffin's explanation i don't think we're we're not stagflation yet okay okay yes gdp growth in q1 was a disappointment but we're going to see positive growth over the next couple of quarters i mean let's take a huge step back unemployment is 3.6 percent there are 11 million open jobs we are i mean these are numbers that look nothing like gloom and doom but so what are we living through we are living through a shortage of workers and we are living through a change in the policies of globalization that defined most of our adult lives so with the workforce we're the american workers we still have fewer people employed today than we did before the pandemic started we should have several million more americans working and we need those people working because that's how we satisfy the demands of the american consumer you've got this impact of deglobalization that causes this inflation environment that we're in that's going to cause the fed to have to raise rates and at some point we're going to go from a negative real rate environment to a positive real rate environment and the stock market is seeing that play out they're forecasting that and they're incorporating that into stock prices so stock prices go lower growth stocks go much lower value stocks outperform growth what do you think are we already in a recession close to entering one or could it still be a while before the economic downturn begins as ken griffin suggests please leave your comments in the comments section below give this video a thumbs up and 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