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Jamie Diamond thank you very much for sitting down with us today I spend a lot of time this weekend reading your letter and my biggest takeway from it was that you have a very clear sense of what's good for America what's good for the economy and what's good for JP Morgan what is the biggest threat in your mind to that confident Vision so every year when I write that letter I try to think of one of the most important things I would add to that the free western world because I that's what me the most is that you know the Ukraine war the terrorist activities in Israel you know the thread that that's drawing between Russia Iran North Korea China the difficulties of our relation with China that whole thing is challenging what you know we would call the free Democratic Western World and that's that to me is the most important thing that we get all of that right well I want to come back to the geopolitical backdrop uh in a minute but right now I want to focus specifically on the economy right as the chief exec of America's biggest bank you have an unrival Insight uh into the financial health of the US consumer what are people doing with their money right now you have to look a little bit in Contex the consumer is in pretty good shape right now unemployment under 4% has been there for 2 years housing prices are up stock prices are up jobs are plentiful wages are finally going up the low end the consumers in pretty good shape the one thing you got to be cautious about a lot of is driven by just fiscal spending so even today the deficit of 6% of GDP you know almost $2 trillion that's driving a lot of this growth and that will have other consequences possibly down the road you know called inflation which may not go away like people expect so when I look at the range of possible outcomes you know you can have that soft Landing I'm a little more worried that it may not be so soft and inflation may not go quite go away people expect I'm not talking about just this year I'm talking about 25 and 26 and the rates may have to go up a little higher I'm talking about the 10e rate the 5ye rate uh and you know that be can have consequences so we'll see but right now you describe a pretty um Rosy uh picture and yet we know uh consumers aren't feeling it why this disconnect yeah well you have to look at different consumers here so the bottom 20% of America have not done particularly well over the last 20 years incomes barely went up remember suicide fentanyl crime inflation there are a lot of negative effects some people can't get mortgages can't buy the home so yeah there's part of society who's kind of struggling there part of society who's not and I think that's a different issue about how we deal with a policy but you can see why that has people upset so just to go back to the soft Landing uh in the letter you con seeed uh you were on the hawkish side but then things played out in a more benign fashion but your still is a slightly begrudging concession you yourself sound quite glum in the letter can you tell us a bit more about why that is so I'm not looking at a year I'm not making a forecast I'm trying to say what are the range of possible outcomes and last year and this year I would put out the same issues huge amount of fiscal deficit huge amount of QE a lot of things in the f future inflationary the green economy the remilitarization of the world obviously the deficits which you know basically AR going to go away as far as the eye can see and geopolitics all that puts me on the side of caution that things may not go as well as people expect the odds of a soft Landing the market kind of prices in 70% I think it's half of that you know as a business person I try to be prepared for all of that it's just a little cautious it looks a little bit more like the 70s to me and I point out to a lot of people things look pretty Rosy in 1972 they were not Rosy in 1973 so don't get lulled in a false sense of security because the today looks okay the tomorrow is going to be okay so just trying to separate the two sticking with today then is bomic working partially you know when you spend that kind of money you're going to have growth and we needed some of like some of the industrial policy I think the infrastructure thing is terrific that was bipartisan you know other things will remain to be seen so uh I think some of the American public looks at it like what are they getting so if you go to Rural America or inner cities I'm not sure they feel like they're being lifted up by this economy do you think Jerome Pal's doing a good job as chairman of the FED I have tremendous respect for Jay I think the Fed was probably late in raising rates they caught up they're probably right in watching right now we don't know what's going to happen you might as well wait we also don't know the full effect of QE I'm again I'm a little more than the cautious side of that most people a general feeling that you can reduce the balance sheet by several trillion dollars and its effect will not be felt I'm not so sure we've never had it before switching Tac now to geopolitics we've got Wars going on in the Middle East uh and in Europe that create enormous amount of economic uncertainty if we focus first on the Middle East do you think that the US position towards the Israel Hamas war is the right one I think Israel has the right to defend itself uh I think war is a terrible thing I think people have to be honest about what war is you know when they look at these civilian death and all things like that so I don't know the specifics of the military I think the notion that they aren't going to defend themselves is wrong so I I'll leave the military experts decide you know what's the right way to go do that every General I've see on TV and I've spoken to several you know City conflict is really bad and you know it's door by door high amount of Civilian casualties uh you know Hamas must have known there was going to be quite a reaction to what they did by the way it's unjustifiable for any reason ever so I I want to be clear about that and then we've got a war in Ukraine as well where you know Ukraine clearly struggling against Russia what would it mean for the global economy if Russia was to win it would could be a potential disaster because you know this is the first war in Europe a free Democratic nation invaded by two or 300,000 Russian soldiers under the threat of nuclear blackmail so you we've never had nuclear blackmail before which is also teaching the whole world you know may be having nuclear weapons pretty good thing because people will be afraid of you you can you know abuse a neighbor if you feel like it but the other thing is affecting all alliances if Russia wins I personally think you might see a lot of people deciding that you know will will America stand up for Europe uh can you rely on them and if you can't rely on them what are you going to do and that includes economically so that's why I kind of talked about the economic Battlefield and the battlefield so economically Every Nation can say what makes me secure what makes me secure energy food and all the things I need uh so I'm a little worried that if Russia wins that war you're going to see kind of the world kind of enter a little bit of chaos as people realign uh alliances and economic relationships Etc so China is complicated obviously because um on the one hand we have so much trade with China the supply chains are integrated but at the same time we reported recently that China is aiding the Russian war effort and there's now a proposal by the US to sanction Chinese Banks how should the US approach China you know I always tell America take a deep breath we have all the food war and energy we need the Atlantic and the Pacific no Wars in North America South America China Imports 11 million barrels of oil a day they're a very complicated neighbor their own actions are causing all their neighbors to rearm their GDP per person is $155,000 versus our 80 so you know our we're in a very good position we have to restructure trade around National Security they need oil and gas so the LNG I think is very important strategically so I would negotiate them around all all that I'm I'm glad they're doing it as long as Ukraine is there and they're doing anything to a the bet I think it makes it very hard to have a great relationship with them I'm glad the government has the authority to do certain things if in fact some these things are true yeah they should do some sanctions right but they should expect some in back by the way I want to turn now to domestic matters and the forthcoming election we're in the very unusual position of knowing what a trump presidency looks like we know what a Biden presidency looks like who's the best candidate for the economy for 2024 okay I'm not going to go into that kind of thing right now and uh whoever is President you know we will try to help I would like them to put a lot of experts around them not just academic but you know practitioners in the real world because I think it matters how about you as one of the experts I know you are sure your name has come up in the context of a new fed chairman I would not do fed chairman treasury secretary I don't think I'd ever be picked for that so okay you're not a politician but you are a chief executive and um obviously the lot of pressures with the job you had a a near-death experience about four years ago before with your iotic tear and before that you'd had a big cancer scare um how did those experiences change you cancer scare was cancer yeah I don't know I probably a little PTSD from all of them and uh I think you try to live life a little more deliberately so I love what I do I love my job I love my family I love all those things so nothing really changed that way but it is a little more deliberate when I was being wheeled in the operating room for the dissection I knew it was like 5050 and I didn't have any regrets so I you know because people always said do you have regrets no and the only thing I would say I do want to help this country and the world and the free western world that is on my mind maybe that changed a little bit yeah now you've been Chief exec for 18 years and you're obviously in a very powerful position but even the most powerful people powerful leaders need checks and balances who keeps you in check well my wife would probably say I do uh and she does uh but I like I think my management team we're all very open everyone we share everything I emote to them you know ways that you wouldn't hear me do it elsewhere they emote back you know you're wrong you didn't read it properly you're you missed this major point so it's a it's a very open conversation I don't think any of those folks are intimidated by me you know and there's very little after Thea conversation like okay I didn't want to me this fun of everybody they're brave enough to mention in front of anybody and you know I've had people you know three of them come in and say Jamie you're Mak a mistake sit down we want to explain it to you don't say anything okay lay it on me so you try to create a very open environment and then also you know we have Regulators Auditors press so we get believe me we get a lot of feedback from a lot of people just to bring it back to the current news cycle with this these very polarizing issues in America do you think that's the sort of thing that Chief exec like you should comment on publicly or or make statements as a company own the answer is yes if it's appropriate and you know how to do it so you know in my letter is quite clear I'm a like a full-throated red-blooded patriotic free enterprise capitalist and I'm unabashed and unashamed I also acknowledge that we've left part part of society behind there's nothing wrong with acknowledging it than trying to do something about it so you know we do a little bit of both so we'll support the LGBT community we'll support free fair safe voting when it comes to lifting up other parts of society absolutely so I've got some final questions here there're short questions that require short answers okay how many days should people be in the office five is ideal are America's downtowns dead no I I think some are going to have difficulty because their own policies but no if you're a young person and you want to work at JP Morgan what should you study at College it almost doesn't matter to tell you the truth because you're looking for smart ethical decent people I do think in business the you should learn the language of business which is accounting and learn a little basic business so I think it would help to do accounting Finance markets something like that on the rare occasion that you take a day off what do you do so my daughters have said to Dad you need some more Hobbies I love my family so we have a lot of family dinners when I'm around we hike together we take vacations together I love wine I love music I just started playing squash again which I'm still a little worried about but I'm going to do it what's your morning routine okay I wake up usually at 4:30 or 500 I read five papers you'll be happy to hear in a very specific form so I flip through the post I read the front page of the Washington Post then I read the New York Times frun section beginning to end all of it I read their business section which isn't so great then I read the Wall Street Journal front section exchange next uh and then the ft and the reason I do ft last is because all the other ones are very much skewed to the US so I like reading I like I'll do it for hours in the morning but then I like to get a exercise and go to the office so and do you ever switch off your phone I am not a fanatic on the phone I don't even have it here I have it outside but uh I think people should spend a little bit of time in that a little more time thinking but I'm not on any social media uh every year I test it I go on for literally just a week to see what everyone else is doing you know reals and Instagram and Facebook and Tik Tok and and then I click out of it never tempted no good well Jamie don't
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