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main problem that i see is right now we have all the governments in the world most of them printing huge amounts of money which has never happened before it's leading it's going to lead to big problems down the road throughout history when you print staggering amounts of money it's led eventually to problems and we have never in world history had so much money printing as we have now well uh all this money printing i i i have had more commodity investing let's put it that way because of the money printing throughout history when you print a lot of money it has led to inflation and inflation means higher prices which means commodities will go up and as i look around the world i mean you can see that bonds are definitely a bubble bonds have never been this expensive in world history property in many countries there's a bubble you go to korea and you new zealand many places it's it's a bubble stocks are beginning to form bubbles in many places i mean apple goes up every day you know 10 cent things like that the only place only things that are still down are commodities i mean silver is down 60 from its all-time high sugars down 60 percent those are not bubble numbers when you talk about things that are down to 60 so commodities are the cheapest place and i've invested more in agriculture and other commodities in the last year or so two things will happen one things will just get so overpriced there won't be anybody left to buy and then they start selling and then there's nobody left to buy and the prices go down a lot but also interest rates will go higher eventually interest rates have never been this low in world history so when interest rates start going higher a lot of people are going to have to sell they're always some people are overextended and when they start having to sell it usually crescendos and then you have a big bear market i'm sure the next bear market we have will be the worst in my lifetime we had a big bear market in 2008 because of too much debt well since 2008 i mean the debt has skyrocketed everywhere we've never seen so much debt so the next bear market has to be the worst in my lifetime because of all this debt when there's inflation prices go up and if you own the things that go up in price you know whether it's sugar or silver or whatever you usually will make money or you certainly will protect yourself so the best opportunities i see are in real assets also though whenever you have a big disaster it usually leads to opportunities for instance right now travel and tourism and entertainment are all demolished in many countries and they're probably opportunities there developing for i mean i bought chinese wine stocks recently because people stopped going out they stopped going to restaurants stop going to bars so maybe there's an opportunity there often when there is a disaster it does lead to an opportunity well i said bonds are the biggest bubble they've ever been that's not an opportunity commodities are very cheap silver is down 60 didn't you hear what i said this is an opportunity bonds are not an opportunity maybe i'm not making myself clear some markets are certainly great opportunities some are not well i am not selling uh anything yet and i'm not selling short anything yet i see bubbles starting to develop but at the moment it doesn't look like we're in enough enough of a bubble maybe bonds but nothing else uh for me to sell short yeah many stocks in the u.s which is the biggest market or not up a lot somewhere in a clear bubble but many stocks this year now or last year were down uh in 2021 so it's not a full-fledged bubble yet but it looks like it's going to develop into a full-fledged bubble at which point i'll have to spell and i'll start selling short i hope i hope i'm smart enough i think what you need to do is to watch the desire to trade to figure out when it's time to sell the bottle i don't know uh bubbles what was usually ruined two kinds of people they ruined the skeptics first to people who say this is a bubble and it's crazy then they get ruined and then the people who believe in the bubble get ruined because then the bubble eventually collapses and they lose everything because they thought it was real so i don't know i'm not very good at market timing i have been around bubbles before i have soul bubbles i have shorted bubbles but bubbles can be very very confusing but when bubbles come everything collapses nearly everything not everything you know most things disappear in the 19 let's use 1999 that was a recent bubble in the u.s with the dot-com bubble most or many of the dot-com stocks which were not real companies some of them totally collapsed and disappeared some survived and did well i mean amazon is now a great great great success uh but if you shorted at amazon and that bubble you would have made a lot of money for a while but it is a company which went on to become a great success usually there's always somebody that survives but most bubble stocks disappear i told i told you watch the desire to trade um always somebody who will survive you look at their balance sheets you look at their business you look at the competition you look at the people or the people smart people no it's the same thing that you would look at when you're trying to decide on any investment it's exactly the same thing uh it's more difficult in a bubble because usually there's a lot more competition uh it you know in a bubble you can many new companies start up and you have to decide which ones are really sound but it's the same thing investing is pretty much the same always i didn't say it was easy i just said it's pretty much the same well these days uh nearly everything is in fact i mean the internet makes everything instantly we can know what's happening in korea and new york instantly uh all over the world there's no such thing as a very few remote markets now that we do not know about or cannot find out about as soon as we want to and invest you know we can invest in many markets and in many industries uh almost immediately because of the internet however there's a difference in information and in judgment if 100 people go into a room and they all hear the same information at the same time most of them will not get it right judgment judgment is the hard thing and i don't know how to teach judgment you ask about some successful investments before but for whatever reason they have good judgment and they get the same information that other people get but they know how to use judgment different i don't know how to teach it i wish i did well the most important lesson that i have learned is only invest in what you yourself know a lot about now everybody listening to this knows a lot about something whether it's cars or fashion or sports or something and if you stay with what you know what you yourself know don't listen to the internet don't listen to the tv don't listen to anything everybody knows a lot about something and if i told you you can only have 20 investments in your life you would be very careful you wouldn't jump around all the time good wait until you see something that you know is going to be successful then you would do research and you would invest in you would probably become a successful investor now some people would say but that's boring you want to be successful don't worry about being bored be boring and be very successful read as much as you can you must know about markets you must know about the world you know must know what's going on but again stay with what you know if i told you to buy something you should not buy it maybe you should go and do some research maybe you should learn about it but do not buy something based on what i or anybody else says unless you yourself know a lot about it i know people don't want to hear that you know everybody wants a hot tip everybody wants to be rich this month just give me one hot tip hot tips will ruin you hot tips will make you bankrupt stay away from hot tips well i mean every as i said everybody wants to be rich this month i wish this were easy i said before most people both professional and non-professional do not make money in the markets and never have it's not everybody thinks it's easy it looks easy everybody said i could have bought apple no most people did not buy apples you know back in those days most people did not buy the things that they think look easy this is not an easy way to make money and it never has been and never will be it's always hard and hard work you have to be disciplined
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