저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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결론: 디몬은 미국 경제 성장과 고용 호조를 강조하며 인플레이션은 일시적이나 통제 불가능할 가능성도 열어두고, 암호화폐에는 회의적인 입장이다. 경제 전반: 미국은 역사상 가장 번영한 경제라고 평가하며 자본주의의 자유를 옹호한다. 실업률은 15%에서 4.6%로 내려왔고, 6~8개월 내 4% 이하, 내년 말에는 역사상 최저 수준까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 인플레이션: 현재 약 5%이며 공급망 문제가 원인이다. 일부는 일시적이지만 유가는 자본 투입 감소로 쉽게 내려가지 않을 것으로 본다. 연준이 금리를 올릴 여지는 충분하나, 볼커처럼 심각한 경기침체를 만들 필요는 없다고 본다. 다만 사실상 금리 인상이 불가피할 수 있다. 유가·정책: 전략비축유 방출은 전 세계 수요(하루 약 1억 배럴) 대비 3,200만 배럴 규모로 상징적 효과에 그친다고 평가한다. 금융·주거: 소수계층 대출 확대를 위해 지점 개설, 대출 담당자 확충, 대안 신용데이터 활용을 추진하며 15개 도시에서 진행 중이다. 암호화폐: 블록체인과 일부 DeFi는 실재하지만, 암호화폐는 본질적 가치가 없는 토큰이라며 회의적이다. 투기가 과도하며 투자자는 신중해야 한다고 본다. 유명인 광고에도 부정적이다. 규제: 연준 감독 후보 관련 질문에는 논평을 거부했다. 종목·자산: 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금, 엔비디아, 비트코인, S&P500, 한국채금리, 환율 등 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
during the matapan community bank opening i had a chance to sit down for a one-on-one interview with jp morgan chase ceo jamie dimon to ask about the economy inflation cryptocurrency and more there's a lot this is an unbelievable country so i i when people denigrate our country because we have flaws i really don't like that so it's okay to say this is the finest coming to planet which it is and yes we have flaws which we should remediate over time and so there were there are some structural things but you know banks have been doing things like this for a long time and we're required under law to do you know open branches and lower middle income neighbors which i'm totally supportive of but you know to me we were doing this in detroit before and then covet and the murder of george floyd pointed out something which we already knew that when there are big problems and recessions or storms the poor get hurt more and the murder of george floyd and other innocent blacks pointed out that we don't have racial equality 170 years after the civil war so i don't think there's anything wrong with people saying what can we do to fix these problems that are special so for example when you look at when you actually do the work we need more loan officers mostly black loan officers in this part of town who can relate to folks here teach them how we can do mortgages we may have to change how we do the with the credit box a little bit i just met with a private client so building wealth you build it through a home or making investments right so we have someone in this branch we're dealing with the local community to get them to save money and stuff like that so these efforts will make a big difference like i said we're doing them in 15 cities at this point and uh and i think everyone should help out there's nothing wrong with saying let's let's lift up this part of society it's not different than you would do in a family you know if you have a family and a very successful member they probably do a little bit helping up lifting up this less successful members of the family right as we talked about uh when we first spoke six months ago about the racial inequities in boston when you look at the finances of minority or white families many times they were blocked from getting access to mortgages or credit and so this will go away you know sometimes in the old days they talk about redlining but there are other problems like how appraisals are done in different parts of town how credit is done like like for example most people know this you have a credit score you can go online look at your credit score it's very good by the way i'm sure it is but my point is is that a lot of people that we call them they don't have credit scores we call them thin files but if you've been if you a mother or father you've been paying rent for 20 years you're probably pretty good credit so using alternative data to make a loan you might not otherwise be made yeah let me ask you if i can when we met in may i asked how worried you were about inflation yeah and you said it was a legitimate concern at the time how do you feel about inflation i feel the same way so it's obvious that it's there a little bit so i think what we should look at first of all we're when we met okay we still i felt the unemployment was but people forget we had a 15 unemployment rate it's now 4-6 you know the debt cover debts are coming down we've had delta we've had the supply chain issues and the country's still going to four percent so inflation has moved up to five but jobs are plentiful wages are going up there's a wave of growth coming and yes you're gonna have a bit of inflation hopefully it's containable but there's a chance it's not and um but let's enjoy it take that chance let's enjoy the growth enjoy the jobs sure this is a very good thing that unemployment 4.6 and our focusing is going to be below four in you know six to eight months sure that's a wonderful thing you know it might even be lower than it's ever been by the end of next year in history let me ask this because i think anyone who even was a child in the 1970s hears inflation energy worries misery index oh my god here we go this is going to be that and tell me if i'm being too simplistic but at that time paul volcker really had to put the country into recession to get inflation under control because interest rates were at 13 14 because the fed has kept interest rates so low since the financial crisis do you believe the fed has enough bullets in the barrel so to speak to keep incrementally raising rates to keep inflation under control or is that too simple if you go back in history inflation started in like 1968.
paul volcker raised rates 200 basis points in 1982. right so we we really didn't control it for a long time why it probably got that bad and for years people saying transitory you know supply chains and basically was wrong right i think we're more on top of it now so i think the fed has the tools you know and if we're lucky we have a lot of room to grow no they can they can raise rates quite a bit they don't have to do it 25 basis point stuff like that but what you don't want what you want to do is have the growth and they they may want to slow it down to cool off inflation you know what paul vulcan did put us in a deep recession and so you know we don't really want that there's a chance they're going to have to do that it won't be up to the fed at one point they will have to react to the facts in the ground so uh in the meantime you're going to have very good growth and like i said here's my question and you have late you know we have the two sides of labor wages are going up that's a good thing we spoke about income inequality well wages going up is a good thing jobs being available is a good thing and so but it's going to drive a little inflation hopefully it won't get anything like we had in 82.
i think what people are worried about is if inflation is too much money chasing too few goods it's the supply chain problem that is causing the too few goods and until that works itself out which i think it logically ultimately will between now and then what do we do about that yeah so we if we're sitting here a year from now we're not going to be talking about the supply chain at all it's already showing itself out and we're going to four percent with supply chain issues and stuff like that you know the the markets work pretty well when people see opportunities and goods reprice and people move around and produce everything so i'm not worried about the supply chain and my view is that of the five percent unemployment which it would roughly us today we know that a piece is transitory okay some of the supply chain i don't think oil is i don't think oil can go down because there's so much less capital going into oil and gas production and so you can have higher oil prices right the president announced he's going to release from the strategic oil reserves this morning is that a good move it's basically relevant irrelevant yeah i think the global numbers for oil are 100 million barrels used today they're going to release 32 million barrels over i think they said two to three months it's symbolic and i think oil prices went down one percent was announced right and that that's the full effect one other question the president's nominee to be the regulator to oversee banking dr saleh omarova took some really fiery questioning from senators last week because obviously she has the full support of the white house but they see that some of her writings indicate she might have some anti-capitalist sentiment do you support her nomination i we don't we've not commented on that at all and i'm not going to comment on it i just think we should understand that america has the most prosperous economy the world's ever seen and that freedom called we call it capitalism but also freedom of people you can move what you want you can have jobs that you want you can invent business that you want that freedom is an unbelievable thing and people should be very careful about knocking it down and acting like it doesn't work there are no other systems that work better and one last question i know you've got to go uh we see tom brady's doing doing commercials lots of people doing commercials trying to tell young people to put their money into cryptocurrency should they be doing that i'm a skeptic you know i mean blockchain is real it's we use it for certain things parts of d fi real those when you say cryptocurrency has no intrinsic value you're basically buying a token why it has a lot of that i don't know and i think there's so much speculation taking place in stocks and securities and crypto and stuff like that i'd be very careful i defend people's right to do it in a free country i'm not going to do it jamie dimon thank you so much thank you
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