Tom Lee: A Santa rally will likely dominate Wall Street in December

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연말 산타랠리 전망 속 주식 상승 기대, 유가 구조적 부족 및 에너지 주목, 금리 방향 변수, 비트코인 10만달러 전망을 제시하는 인터뷰. 주식 시장: 연말까지 S&P500이 4800을 넘어설 것으로 보며, 기본 시나리오는 4800, 상황에 따라 4900도 가능하다고 봄. 유럽 봉쇄 등 악재가 해소되면 위험선호 환경으로 복귀할 것이라는 전제. 섹터: 경기민감주와 FANG(플랫폼 기술주) 동반 상승 흐름 예상, 'FANG 플러스' 중심 랠리 전망. 에너지: 유가 구조적 공급 부족으로 시장이 타이트해졌고 백악관의 SPR 방출도 마지막 카드였다고 평가. 유가가 100달러 방향으로 움직일 여지가 있으며, 2022년 가장 유망한 테마로 에너지 주식을 꼽음. 기관 투자자의 관심이 점차 증가 중. 금리: 채권시장이 연준의 금리 인상을 시장 기대 이상으로 공격적으로 반영 중. 인플레이션이 일시적 착시로 판명되어 상품 물가가 안정·하락하면 장기금리가 낮아지고 주식 위험프리미엄이 높아져 증시가 한 단계 더 오를 수 있다는 시나리오 제시. 비트코인: 연말까지 10만달러 도달 전망. 추수감사절 전후로 암호화폐 얘기가 확산되고, 기관과 개인 모두 2022년을 좋은 해로 볼 것이라 보고 비트코인 상승을 뒷받침할 것으로 판단. 전 세계 실사용 지갑 약 2억 개(인구 70억 명 대비)로 아직 초기 단계라고 설명. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기적으로 연말 랠리와 에너지 강세, 비트코인 10만달러를 기본 시나리오로 제시하며 금리 하락 시 주식 상승 여력 확대를 강조.

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01. our nexus believes wall street is on the cusp of a santa rally let's bring in fast money friend tom lee tom is the managing partner funstrat and a cnbc contributor tom always great to see you yeah great to see you happy thanksgiving happy thanksgiving to you i'll ask you the same question what are the best trades in your view to your end uh you know i think interest rates are going to be one of the key pivots but from an equity perspective uh we're entering a seasonally strong period you know powell's renominated there's a lot of cash on the sidelines i know there's been a lot of volatility lately that's put a lot of money on the sidelines and there's been some tax loss selling so i think we're going to finish quite strongly but i see this led by not only just cyclicals but also the fang complex so it's almost a fang plus epicenter rally and you're you're still sticking by your 4 800 to your end so there's 100 s p points from where we are right now is that right yes i i think probably more correctly i think we're going to surpass 4 800 uh into year-end and you know part of it is going to be to the extent that some of the things that have scared people like the european lockdowns those aren't going to be for six weeks so i think as soon as those lift you know we're going to go back into a much stronger risk on environment so you know it could be you know 40 it could be a 4 900 number but i would say 4 800 is probably the base case into your end hey tom it's it's tim talk about energy and talk about the positioning of institutions and your clients on this trade are they going to ever be investors again um and carter comes on and talks all about how actually it's been a bit of a head fake on energy we talk a lot about the oil price but who's really investing here uh yeah i i'd say that investors in 2021 like institutional kind of looked at energy but from a distance because they thought okay this is a small group and it's made a big move and they figured oil wasn't really going to go anywhere um but as you know oil's actually now getting to be a very tight market and i think the white house fired its last bullet in terms of releasing the spr so i think oil now has a runway to actually move you know towards 100 and as investors think about 2022 i think at the top of the list is exactly what you guys described that it's a resource uh energy equity trade because they're structural shortage of oil um it's going to take years for production to fix but the demand side is going to really rebound especially as we get through this last of the covet and now we've got the antiviral pills i think the covet situation looks so much better next year investors really do want to have more exposure so we're seeing incremental interest and you're seeing it in the relative performance hey tom when you look at this time of year everyone always starts to throw out those biggest surprise trades of the following year where do you see rates and how does that mess up your uh prognosticating of the of the year whether it's energy whether it's the banks everyone expects rates to explode above two percent but what happens if if it doesn't what happens if they don't what happens if we see a 10 year that's 1.2 1.3 for the majority of the year uh yeah that's uh that's a key battleground actually because as you know at the moment the bond market is looking for fed liftoff far more aggressively than the street is and obviously more aggressive than the fed so the big pivot next year is what if inflation turns out to be a head fake and we actually start to see stable to falling inflation on a lot of goods that would be a big shock because you would see is exactly described a huge adjustment across the entire curve of yields but i i think it ends up being that yields are lower and it really elevates equity risk premium which means the market could you know go into another gear tom um i want to ask you about bitcoin because you've got a big call you think a hundred thousand dollars is where it goes in the final weeks of the year i mean is thanksgiving gonna be a catalyst is this gonna be one of these thanksgivings where people are around the table and they're talking about ethereum and bitcoin and nfts and so on and that's what helps bitcoin go higher uh melissa that that's what happens you know around thanksgiving is people talk about things that have really either been transforming um or life-changing you know crypto is one of those things because as you know like even uh something like one in five home down payments is coming from crypto profits i mean it's some staggering number for first-time homebuyers so i think it's like 2017.

02. people come home for thanksgiving they talk about crypto there's only 200 million real wallets like users of crypto worldwide out of seven billion people so it's still the earliest stages so i think both institutional and individuals are going to talk a lot about crypto and i think they're going to conclude 2022 is a great year and and that's what i think really strengthens bitcoin into your end you