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I mentioned earlier how you an auction Market prevailing in the uh in the stock market will will offer up extraordinary Bargains sometimes because somebody will sell a half a percent or one percent of a company at a price that maybe a quarter of what it's worth whereas in negotiated deals you don't get that an IPO situation more closely approximates a negotiated deal I mean the seller decides when to come to Market in most cases and they don't pick a time necessarily that's good for you so it has I think it's way less likely that in scanning a list of 100 Securities that are trading in the auction Market uh well in the 100 ibos if you scan 100 IPOs you're going to come up with something cheaper than scanning 100 companies that are already trading in the auction Market it is it is more of a negotiated sale and negotiated transactions are very hard to get Bargains if you take the houses in Omaha you know somebody that lives next door to somebody who sold their house for 80 000 or dollars and their house is more or less comparable they're not going to sell it for 50.
it just doesn't happen the people are it's too important an asset and they're cognizant of what it brings what is being brought for similar properties that's what happens in negotiated sales now if on the other hand there was some whole bunch of entities that own one percent of each house in Omaha and you had an auction market and those one percentage points they might sell it damn near anything and occasionally they sell at Crazy Prices so you're way in my view you're way more likely to get incredible bargains in the in the uh in an auction Market it's just the nature of things the IPO is closer sometimes there will be IPOs in terrible markets uh and they may come very cheap but by and large that is not when IPOs come they come when the seller thinks that the the market is ready for them and uh they they come they come with an informed seller uh thinking it's a pretty good time to go public and you know that you'll make better Buys in my view in an auction Market well the first question is entirely possible that you could use our mental models to find good things to buy among IPOs the answer is sure they're a zillion IPOs every year and buried in those IPOs I'm sure there's a there are a few cinches that are really intelligent person could find and pounce on so welcome on the uh but the average person buying IPOs is going to get creamed so if you're talented enough why sure that will work yeah because the IPOs are normally small enough so that they won't work for us or they're high-tech where we couldn't understand them so by and large if Warren is looking at them why I don't know about it many of us are interested in what you meaning Berkshire are buying and you won't tell us that using Charlie's principle of invert invert always invert maybe you can help us by suggesting what to avoid and stay away from specifically what in the investment world today strikes you as Folly fad unsustainable crazy or dumb a lot yeah well we we I I think I would describe it as we try to stay away from the things to start with that we that we don't understand and when I say don't understand it isn't it I don't understand you know what a certain business does but when I say understand it means that I think I have a reasonably a reasonable fix on about what the earning power and competitive Position will look like in five or ten years so I've got I've got some notion of how the industry will develop and where the company will stand within the industry well that eliminates a whole bunch of things and then beyond that if the price is crazy even though I understand it that eliminates another Bunch so you get down to a very small uh universe and you get down to a particularly small Universe when we're working with lots of money as we are now but uh we well I would say this I can't recall any time in the last 30 years at least that we've bought a new issue at least early I can't think of one no no I mean the idea that somebody is bringing something to market today a seller who has a choice of when to come to Market and that security where there's going to be a lot of hoopla connected with it is going to be these single cheapest thing to buy out of thousands and thousands and thousands of businesses in the world is nonsense you know so again when it carries a seven percent commission yeah it's higher it's ridiculous it's ridiculous so you know you know you know it can't be the most attractive thing now you know it but people get excited about what's coming and all that sort of thing but I will guarantee you that that if you have thousands of opportunities among stocks all over the world and most of them are not being promoted or being sold with special Commissions in them or something else and then some other Security is coming to Market that day when the seller picks the time to bring it as opposed to just this auction Market operating otherwise you know it just doesn't make any sense to me to spend five seconds thinking about new issues so we don't think about them and we also uh you know there's Industries we know they may have a wonderful future but we don't have the faintest idea who the winners will be so we don't think about those either so there's a whole lot of things we don't think about and we have a Charlie and I have a number of filters that things have to get through very quickly before we're willing to think about them and and sometimes we're thought of as rude probably Charlie sort of that way a little more often than I am uh sometimes we're thought of as rude because people will call us and they say they start explaining some idea to us and it just doesn't make it for the first Builder or two and so we just we think we're saving their time if we just politely say you know that we just have no interest and we don't want to have you finished the sentence uh but we've we do that don't we imagine yeah we don't we don't have to do very many things that work I mean that's the beauty of this business you know you don't have to be able you know dispel 500 words or something to get to the end of the spelling bee and beat everybody else you just have to do one or two things every now and then that where you don't make a big mistake and where every now and then one works out real well and the solution is you know you'll get a good result you can't have a big disaster I mean you just you know that is that's what we try to avoid we do not ever want to lose a significant percentage of berkshire's net worth and uh so far we haven't I think there are a couple of little rules of thumb if it's got a really large Commission in it forget it don't read it because the chances somebody who's paying a very high commission to give you a big advantage it's a very low handy other thing that is I think calculum in reverse is is a as a place to look looking at things that other smart people are buying that is not a crazy search method is a sorting device for opportunities to consider Charlie knew me when I used to look at I grabbed the Graham Newman reports as fast as they would come out yeah sure you know if grab them and was doing something and it was certainly worth my time to look at now Warren has made a lot of people Rich he doesn't even know just copied him don't go into things with big commissions
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