저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜덤은 미국 경기침체 및 주식시장 폭락 가능성을 경고한다. 뉴욕 연준 기준 향후 1년 내 침체확률 약 70%, 장단기 금리역전 지속을 근거로 든다. 러셀2000 내 취약기업과 부채 증가, 비트코인 약세(고점 대비 약 50% 하락), 주택·주식 버블 가능성, 중국 성장 둔화와 원자재 가격 하락을 언급한다. S&P500은 20~45% 하락 가능성을 거론하며, 현금 보유 및 우량자산 투자와 리스크 관리를 권한다.
다듬은 글
legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says the stock market has a 70% chance of crashing and it could be an epic burst like the 1929 crisis what's your take on that after the tax stock took a hit in 2021 and real estate felt the pressure from rising interest rates there has been a noticeable slowdown in the economy Jeremy Grantham a big name in investing and a co-founder of GMO is known for his sharp insights into Finance Grantham isn't just talking about a regular economic downturn this time he's sounding the alarm about a massive crisis that's on the horizon the one that could affect the entire world I think the long-term outlook for inflation is really quite bad because we are basically running out of resources we're getting very tight on both labor and important raw materials stay tuned to the end of this video as we will be breaking down Grand's take on what is causing this Gloomy Outlook plus we will look at how you can protect your finances when faced with the challenges of an impending recession number one the Market's attention deficit despite the United States having the world's largest GDP and showing positive signs like low inflation stable employment and increased consumer spending during the summer there are lingering concerns about a potential recession it's not uncommon that people get really excited about short bursts of good news in the market they think it means everything is going great and we're in for a big win but underneath all that excitement there are often risks lurking around that we might not notice Jeremy Grantham thinks these risks could lead to a long-term period of economic trouble this could mean the economy struggling for a while and the prices of stocks dropping even though the US government managed to avoid shutting down for a bit the economy still has some big risks that could push it into a recession which is when things get tough one way to tell if a recession might be on the way is by looking at something called the yield curve it's a fancy term but basically it's about comparing interest rates on different kinds of loans when short-term loan rates are higher than long-term ones it's usually a sign that trouble might becoming history says that when you reach this level of craziness the market tends to break within a few months rather than a few years the current analysis by the New York Federal Reserve points towards a substantial likelihood of a recession estimated at close 70% within the upcoming year this forecast is closely tied to the concept of an inverted yield curve a situation where short-term interest rates surpass long-term rates indicating potential economic challenges ahead in simpler terms it implies that opting for short-term Investments or loans could yield higher returns compared to longer term Financial commitments the scenario reveals that long-term government bonds offer lower interest rates than their short-term counterparts with a notable Gap exceeding 1.5% between the rates of 10-year and 3month bonds drawing comparisons to the early 1980s characterized by severe recessions from 1980 to 1982 evokes concern about the resilience of the US economy amidst this looming possibility of economic downturn understanding the implications of an inverted yield curve is vital for assessing and preparing for the potential challenges that lie ahead in the economic landscape number two volatility of commodity the recent fluctuations in commodity prices encompassing food and energy sectors have raised concerns about a possible Global recession preceding this inflation worries held a win over the economic landscape notably prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine Global Food commodity prices surged by nearly 40% over a 2-year period however the current Outlook indicates an expected 21% drop in commodity prices for 2023 compared to the previous year specifically food prices as reflected by the food and agriculture organization price index have seen a significant 22% decrease in the past year among these vegetable oil prices have plummeted the most by 48% attributed to reduced Palm soy rap seed and sunflower oil prices additionally seral prices like wheat and Maze have also declined by a quarter from their Peak levels a year ago these shifts in commodity prices underscore the evolving economic landscape and its potential implications for Global markets number three recessions and their impact amid ongoing economic challenges economists and investors are dealing with lasting effects that are expected to continue into the foreseeable future Grandam sheds light on an important aspect of specific companies in the Russell 2000 Index earning less and carrying more debt such organizations are severely hampered in times of economic crisis and face challenges in achieving profitability and meeting Financial Obligations this financial burden worsened by current economic uncertainty increases the solvency or bankruptcy of these companies additionally the prolonged recession raises concerns about allowing lower interest rates or Poss possibly a bare Market simply put a bare Market refers to a phase of the economy marked by failing stock prices usually down at least 20% from recent Heights including negative sentiment and confidence in the economy bullies have these overlapping factors highlight the challenges companies and investors face in navigating volatile economic environments when assessing market trends it's evident that while traditional methods Aid in short-term stock selection a broader analysis reveals recurrent major downturns in this Century's market dynamics these downturns marked by substantial declines in the S&P index indicat a potential transition into a prolonged period of Market instability recent indicators suggest the early stages of another significant downturn possibly entering the second or third phase of a multi- quarter cycle there has been a notable increase in Market confidence and household stock ownership in recent years alongside shifting long-term metrics signaling an impending Market downturn it's imperative to recognize a 50% decline from Peak levels in real terms often signaling impending economic challenges the simultaneous presence of Housing and stock market bubbles driven by speculative activities and high demand is cause for a concern the bursting of either bubble could trigger a chain reaction resulting in substantial asset devaluation and overall Market instability looking at the global economic landscape the slowdown in China's economic growth is expected to impact Global oil prices and result in deflation in Goods shipped worldwide any further disruptions or economic setbacks in China could have widespread ramifications affecting trade Supply chains and overall Financial stability number four the impact of artificial intelligence the adoption of AI and machine learning Industries across different Industries has greatly enhanced productivity and Effectiveness this increase in productivity holds the promise of reducing production expenses providing a Competitive Edge for businesses nevertheless there is a possibility of encountering constraints on the supply side as a result of this height and efficiency should the demand for goods or services exceed the available Supply it may lead to inflationary pressures number five potential SNP 500 crash growing complaints about the economy are suggesting that the SNP 500 land may be shaken experts are arguing over Wall Street to wake up from its Slumber as speculation about an impending recession intensifies the recent rally at Silicon Valley Bank is a clear sign of deep weakness in the banking sector casting a shadow over the broader economic landscape an interesting analogy was made relating the stock market to someone walking on a tight RPP Guided by the windless wind who can be pushed by outside winds it seems the Market's current flow and growth is not uncertain driven by some certain stocks resulting in a weak monetary policy analysts are expecting a major Market correction with the S&P 500 potentially down more than 20% overshadowing previous results in more serious cases Panic grows as investors are worried about the vision of a potential drop of 45% or more reminding the market of its plague induced low so these forecasts serve as Stark reminders of the formidable economic challenges ahead prompting stakeholders for turbulent times we are urged to prepare and ride the changing tide by experiencing change and insight in financial markets the S&P 500 faces potential downside under the impact of ongoing economic bubbles these jumps characterized by the overvaluation of assets disconnected from their real value have historically triggered the largest market correction the dotom bubble of the late 1990s is a clear example where investors chased internet related companies regardless of their true profitability or growth prospects the burst after this bubble caused the S&P 500 to drop almost 50% appearing the Stark reality of overwhelming fantasy similarly the mid 2000s saw a housing bubble fueled by a rise in subprime lending and real estate prices its results were profound withstanding a 60% decline in the s P 500 and reaching its nator in 2009 these historical cases highlight the fragility of markets driven by booming speculation highlighting the potential risks of disrupting asset pricing and the underlying fundamental broader macroeconomic factors beyond the EB and flow of economic bubbles also figure prominently in the S&P 500's wealth composition unexpected events such as geopolitical conflicts sudden monetary policy changes the fall of layman brothers or the onset of the covid-19 pandemic can quickly ER investor confidence and Trigger Market sell-off regardless of how the index reflects over time the current Trend sits dangerously at 2500 reflecting the Strategic balance between market dynamics and underlying economic realities easily as fears of a global downturn between pandemic uncertainty intensify the recent rapid 34% decline highlights the index's vulnerability to external shocks and its importance need to emphasize smart risk management strategies number six skepticism of Bitcoin in the turbulent scenario of 2022 cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and ethereum faced a tough test shaking the confidence of Ard and supporters Bitcoin the leading digital asset suffered a massive 65% decline in its market value and struggled with its unexpected collapse on Tera Luna and FDX exacerbated by broader economic headwinds however the 2023 expansion appears less optimistic suggesting a possible Revival of the crypto Market by July Bitcoin showed a small uptick rising to around $31,000 however recent indicators Point toward a downward Trend with Bitcoin struggling to reach the $30,000 threshold on a regular basis despite promising monthly gains recent charts show Bitcoin facing weekly losses hitting $26,845 as of October 10th notably $20,000 Bitcoin sales by miners is a significant Milestone from April 2023 indicating unfavorable conditions in the crypto industry in addition the ethereum or eth whale has begun a move to reclaim their Holdings which has investors worried with addresses holding large amounts of eth which constitutes a large transaction more than 5 million eth worth approximately $8.5 billion have been withdrawn from major wallets Bitcoin is plagued by inflation fears especially in large economies like the US and the UK Skeptics warn that bitcoin's recent Resurgence could be a short-lived bull trap rather than just a permanent uptrend while experts predict that if Bitcoin continues to stabilize around $30,000 it's worth noting that Bitcoin is still about 50% lower than its peak turning attention to the housing market the US the construction industry faces its share of challenges with a Great Recession of 2008 being the only one in which house prices have plummeted a housing shortage in the United States has created a huge demand exceeding the available inventory available to buyer rent as rents Rises and mortgages fall annual house prices growth has slowed since 2022 suggesting that housing market growth could slow number seven proactive steps to prepare for a recession in times of economic crisis proactive measures are essential to prepare for a potential crisis Grandam recommends investing in quality assets often referred to as the free lunch scheme these assets include companies with strong fundamentals strong balance sheets and sustainable competitive advantages historical data show that companies that boast High profitability stable cash flows and consistent earnings tend to whether bankruptcy better ensuring job stability is another important part of recession preparedness staying AB breast of Industry Trends and developing required skills is of utmost importance this may involve participating in online courses attending workshops obtaining certifications in your field or demonstrating a commitment to personal and professional development furthermore it's wise to prioritize long-term strategies over short-term Financial gains make decisions that align with your core objectives that are not susceptible to Market fluctuations is advisable it's important to have good feedback and to acknowledge others studying reputable financial news sources and seeking guidance from financial advisers can provide valuable insight into prevailing market conditions staying informed allows a person to identify potential risks and opportunities enabling them to make informed decisions that protect their Investments history is often a useful guide especially in economic Cycles a notable example is Sir Isaac Newton who suffered heavy losses during the South Seas bubble in the early 18th century highlights the importance of taking Finance seriously regardless of intelligence or Insight it's important to have good feedback and to acknowledge others studying reputable financial news sources and seeking guidance from financial advisers can provide valuable insight into prevailing market conditions conclusion as you complete your budgeting Journey take a moment to reflect on the changes you implemented and share in the comments below if you find this information useful please show your support by liking sharing and subscribing to further enhance your financial literacy for those individuals dedicated to self-improvement look for the next video for more insightful strategies your journey to financial empowerment continues
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