저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
제레미 그랜섬은 미국 경기침체 가능성(뉴욕연은 약 70% 언급), 장단기 금리 역전, 빅테크 편중에 따른 S&P500 급락 위험(최악 시 45% 이상 하락 가능성 언급)을 경고한다. 주택시장과 주식시장의 버블이 동시에 존재하는 점을 위험 요인으로 지적한다. 비트코인은 2024년 1월 기준 약 3만5천달러, 고점 대비 약 48% 하락 상태로 언급되며, 그랜섬은 3만 달러 수준 유지 시 반등 가능성을 봤다고 소개된다. 중국 둔화에 따른 디플레이션과 원자재 가격 하락 위험도 언급된다. 투자자에게는 현금 보유와 우량 자산 선호, 장기 목표 중심 대응을 제안한다.
다듬은 글
back in 2021 tech stocks took a bit of a nose dive and that had a bigger impact on the real estate market than the rising interest rates did Jeremy Grantham the investment Guru from GMO is painting a pretty gloomy picture he's not just talking about your typical recession he's predicting a full-blown crisis in this video we're diving into why he's feeling so pessimistic breaking down the factors contributing to his Outlook and throwing around some ideas on how to protect yourself from the impending economic storm to get the real picture of the present Market situation and what the future scenario would look like keep watching this video till the end despite some good signs in the US like low inflation stable jobs and people spending money there's this looming concern over a possible recession the market has a habit of getting too excited about short-term wins thinking they mean everything speachy but even though the government managed to avoid a shutdown recently there are still big recession risks on the horizon the New York Federal Reserve is waving a red flag saying there's a high chance about 70% of a recession in the next year something that's not following the usual historical Trends they're pointing to this wonky thing called an inverted yield curve where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates the current difference between 3month and 10year bonds is more than 1.5% and that's got people drawing comparisons to the economic hiccups we saw in the early 80s making us Wonder just how vulnerable the US economy really is is some experts are side eyeing Wall Street for being a bit too chill about these recession risks questioning whether the Federal Reserve crystal ball is a bit foggy and raising concerns about a potential SNP 500 crash now analysts are waving their hands saying hey people pay attention they're saying the chance of a recession is higher now than it's been in the last 2 years and we should be getting ready the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is like a warning sign for bigger banking issues looking at the stock market some are comparing it to a Tipsy person trying to walk a tight RPP showing just how fragile things are out there a sensitive Financial environment is created when a small number of equities appear to be carrying the majority of the Market's upward surge according to three very pessimistic S&P 500 crash forecasters the index May plummet more than 20% maybe even reaching the October low in the worst case scenario they're referring to a possible drop of at least 45 % a return to the lows below 2,500 points caused by the epidemic it serves as a sobering reminder of the difficult economic journey ahead one big factor in all this S&P 500 crash talk is the unwinding of economic bubbles these bubbles happen when assets get way too pricey and detached from their actual value setting the stage for a correction think back to theom bubble in the late '90s investors were throwing money at internet companies without caring much about profit profs or realistic growth when that Bubble Burst the S&P 500 took a hit dropping around 50% from its peak and then there's the housing bubble in the mid 2000s fueled by subprime lending and Sky High real estate prices when that Bubble Burst it triggered a financial earthquake and the S&P 500 tumbled by a whopping 60% hitting rock bottom in 2009 you know history has this way of repeating itself but we're not exactly sure when it's going to to happen well one thing that could mess with the S&P 500 is if the economy takes a nose dive or everyone suddenly decides the market is a bad idea imagine a significant shift in the financial system or geopolitical unrest that would scare everyone to the point of selling everything remember the Layman brothers and the chaos that followed yeah that was wild then in 2020 covid-19 emerged demonstrating to us the S&P 500's vulnerability to unanticipated shocks 2,500 is the treadline but significant Market collapses might cause it to drop below that level for an extended period of time when the NASDAQ plummeted by 82% and Amazon suffered a 92% loss in 2000 the Federal Reserve intervened to prevent a 50% decline in the S&P fast forward to 2020 and Global recession fears and pandemic uncertainty led to a 34% Plunge in just a few weeks then came 2022 a tough year for Bitcoin Skeptics the cryptocurrencies dropped a whopping 65% due to unexpected crashes in teral Luna and FDX along with General economic conditions but 2023 brought some relief Bitcoin began to show signs of life in July even Rising by 0.39% to almost $31,000 according to recent reports Bitcoin is seeing a little decline however before we reveal it make sure to subscribe to our Channel and enable the notification Bell in order to receive more crucial and unique updates on the economy and finance that you shouldn't miss the Bitcoin was performing The Recovery with a nearly 15% monthly gain but now it's flirting with a $35,000 Mark again it's currently trading at $35,500 down more than 4831 from its all-time high according to coin market cap Crypt Town isn't looking so sunny right now ethereum whales are also cashing in with wallets holding $10,000 to $100,000 in eth redistributing over 5 million eth around $8.5 billion since February on top of that bitcoin's feeling the heat from inflation worries especially in places like the US and the UK some people are saying the recent Bitcoin rally might just be a trap not a real upward Trend the experts like Mr Grandam think it could bounce back if it stays around $30,000 but let's be real Bitcoin is still down by 50 % from its all-time high tough times in the crypto World indeed if you take a look at the housing market in the US it's been through a lot with a Great Depression in 2008 being the biggest hit to home values right now there's a shortage of homes and more people want to buy or rent than there are places available mortgage rates are up making homes less affordable and year-over-year home price growth has been slowing since 2022 so it looks like the housing market might be hitting the brakes the economic bubbles of 1929 and 2000 and Japan's housing bubble are warning that even in Good Times like before a bubble bursts recessions usually follow catching people off guard recently there's been talk about a global recession linked to a drop in commodity prices especially food and energy after Russia's move into Ukraine food prices shot up but are expected to drop by 21% vegetable oil prices took a nose dive by 48% and serial prices went down by a quarter in the past year now let's shift gears to artificial intelligence Ai and machine learning are boosting productivity and cutting costs for businesses but if demand outstrip Supply due to increased efficiency inflation could be on the horizon the ongoing recession is making some people nervous especially smaller companies in the Russell 2000 with no earnings and high debt these businesses already struggling in uncertain times face a higher risk of going under a prolonged recession also raises concerns about low returns and a possible bare Market which is when stock prices drop by 20% a bare market usually brings pessimism and less Confidence from investors now there are signs we might be in the early stages of a multi- quarter be Market Mr Grantham stressed the importance of a 50% decline in real terms which could set off a downward spiral having housing and stock market bubbles at the same time is risky too much growth based on speculation could lead to a big drop in asset values and Market instability China's economic slowdown is expected to affect global oil prices and lower the costs of goods shipped worldwide leading to deflation any more disruptions in China could mess up trade Supply chains and financial performance globally so what should you do to prepare for a recession during all this uncertainty here are five proactive steps number one invest in quality assets like companies with strong fundamentals and solid balance sheets to stay resilient during economic downturns number two keep your job secure by staying updated with industry Trends and learning new skills number three focus on longterm goals that are less vulnerable to short-term Market changes number four stay informed and flexible by following financial news and Consulting with advisers and number five learn from history Financial Cycles repeat themselves so are you prepared for what lies ahead what steps will you take to safeguard your financial future share your thoughts in the comments below stay informed stay vigilant and take decisive action if you found this video insightful don't forget to like subscribe and hit the notification Bell to stay updated on crucial insights thanks for watching
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