저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 재정적자가 GDP 대비 약 7%에서 3%로 줄어들어야 하며, 세입·지출삭감·금리 3가지로 나눠 해결해야 한다고 주장. 해결이 늦어지면 채권 수급 불균형, 달러 가치 하락, 1930년대식 부채위기와 극단적 정치 대립, 경기침체 위험이 커진다고 경고. 미중 무역·자본 불균형도 언급하며 상황이 지속 불가능하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
I am very worried that this set of circumstances will assuredly we will have a recession and then the deficits go up and then it's very difficult at that time because people are at each other's throats. I think that um if there's one thing I can give people and I'm compelled to give people now, it's an understanding of the mechanics and the supply demand so that people will understand how to answer that question which is why as a global investor for 50 years who's been through many of these I wanted to pass along you know my book my description of the mechanics.
So, in answering your question, um, I want to say why it's a compelling moment and that if they do not bring it down to 3% of GDP from where it'll be about 7% of GDP, they have to bring it down by 4% of GDP. That there is very high likelihood of real problems. It has to be done by three things. There is and and it has to be spread out among these three things because any one of those three things would be too painful and those three things are tax revenue, spending cuts and interest rates in although Congress and the you know the president and the and the process does not deal directly with the third of those right Now, a trillion dollars, half of our deficit is interest payments.
And not only do we have a trillion dollar interest payments, in the next year, we have $9 trillion of debt maturing that has to be either rolled over or sold. So, there's so there is what I call my 3% threepart solution. um which was very similar to 1990 to9 uh excuse me 1991 to98 it was cut by 5% of GDP the budget deficit in those years was cut by 5% of GDP by spreading it around so the three things are needed so if there's a mantra that about 4% here's the magnitudes of it about 4% If if it came from tax revenue, doesn't mean tax um rates, but it could be tax revenue.
4% was cut from the budget deficit. That would naturally change the supply demand picture to bring down interest rates by uh 1 to one and a half% which would itself reduce the deficit by another 2% or so. where it comes is a political question. Uh in other words, yes, you can let the tax expire or you so many different ways you you can do so many different ways.
I would allow um important tax increases in a way that also uh my own view would be improve education, improve uh productivity in a way that raises productivity for most people and so on. But this is not my this is not my political okay I I want to say whether you turn left or you turn right it what's what I'm seeing when I go down there and I speak to both sides of Congress who are the people who are responsible for this nobody disagrees with the need to go to 3% of GDP in that number and and what I'm seeing in politics is that there is um whether they it's like being on a ship that's headed to rocks and there are those who want to turn right and those who want to turn left and they're so hellbent on arguing of whether they turn right or left that they will not get past they're going to hit the rocks if interest rates are unnaturally cut by the central bank printing money or pushing down interest rates unnaturally the bond market will not want to own that.
Think about when you're owning a bond, what you're getting is interest rates. So, the dollar will go down, the value of money will go down, and it's discouraging. We're now in a world geopolitical situation that relates to many things such as self-sufficiency and so on. It it can bring in a lot of money.
It also creates a less effect efficient world economy. oil. So how the deficits are how the tariffs are put into place, what amounts, how has to be done scientifically to get away with that tax revenue. So tax revenue can come from that, but that is a matter of surgery and it has to be done carefully and it has to be done moderately so as to not disrupt that.
I'm concerned about that. But that is not going to be enough. We have a giant imbalance. The world, the United States is the largest consumer in the world and it's largely because the the US government gets in debt and distributes the money and it's a consumer as we have corre we correctly we've lost our ability to manufacture.
China is the largest manufacturer in the world and is in the other side of that. They lend us the money to borrow to buy their goods and now we have a big imbalance. We have a capital imbalance and we have a trade imbalance between that in a world that there's a risk of going to war. And so as we deal with self-sufficiency increasingly we have to become more self-sufficient.
It's a reality in this and we have to become more balanced in that one way or another. So if that's done economically, we have a population that is not productive and manufacturing. We now have a great polarity of of wealth. 60% of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level and there and there's a productivity problem and there's an economic problem.
So if that is dealt with in a scientific and a balanced way, uh that could have some benefits. It's not a black and white situation, but it has to be done with that kind of thoroughess and and so on. One way or another, the imbalances will go away. The debt imbalances, the trade imbalances, the capital imbalances because they cannot be sustained in the world that now exists.
It's coming to an end. I'm worried about all of let's go back to the the debt. I'm worried about that the demand for those bonds will not be equal to the supply. And I'm worried that as the debt now is at this point where it starts to you have to acquire debt to service debt. You have to borrow money to service it.
10 trillion dollar a year in debt service. that if that when you have that kind of condition that you will have an unsustainable situation. So that the central bank, the Federal Reserve will be put into a position of either being um seeing interest rates rise a lot because of that problem, crowding out other spending and costing it money because it they own a lot of bonds and letting that happen or then having to print money and buy those bonds which depreciates the value.
Very similar to the 1970s. We're certainly going to have we always have recessions. Now, just imagine what happens if you have a recession. On average, since 1945, when the new world order began, we've had 12 and a half cycles of which there always been recessions. You're always going to have a recession.
I am very worried that this set of circumstances will assuredly we will have a recession and then the deficits go up and then it's very difficult at that time because people are at each other's throats. So there's going to be an internal fight. The important thing is to deal with this now. Okay, before you have a lot more debt, before you have a lot more comp u compounding of the debt, before you have a recession, what I mean by that is the 1930s was a period that had a debt crisis.
local uh the governments were uh for dis dysfunctional um um and for democracies chose to go to more autocratic policies for somebody to get control of the situation in order to fix the situation. So that you have you you had a debt problem. What Germany did um and number of countries is that they essentially defaulted on the debt.
they didn't pay the debt. And then you have that uh central that more autocratic type of policy because the people want somebody to get control of this situation and then you have the classic conflict between the left and the right. Okay, this this has happened repeatedly, the left and the right. And then you have a fight between the left and the right.
This has happened repeatedly. I'm referring to the 30s, but this has happened repeatedly throughout history. So where that h happens because if we lose our economic well-being, if we lose our our health economically and our power economically, if we lose the dollar as a world reserve currency, it's it it it reverberates through not only American power around the world, it reverberates through the world because the dollar, the US bond market, the treasury market is the backbone of all markets.
And so that that would could produce that kind of trauma. So how they get there in the particular tradeoffs are for those experts and those representatives in Washington to weigh those considerations. It's not for me to weigh those considerations.
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