저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 주식을 모두 매도했고 대부분 시장에서 빠져나왔다고 밝힘. 전 세계 증시가 호황이라 역사적으로 드문 시기이며 크게 주의해야 한다는 경고. 금·은을 보유·추가매수 의향, 달러는 당분간 상승 후 결국 종말 가능성, 금리는 향후 몇 년간 상승 전망. 관세는 소비자 세금이며 반대 입장. 상승장에 신규 투자자 유입은 과거 역사상 나쁘게 끝났다는 경계.
다듬은 글
I mean I would just say be very very careful. I've told you I've sold out of most markets in the world. Many stock markets around the world have been doing extremely well. I am if I my advice is be very very careful wherever you think about investing. This is a rare time in investing history. I own a lot of gold and silver.
I bought more silver last week and I will probably buy more gold if it I know I will buy more gold if it goes down and I might even buy more silver if it goes down. I am not a seller of gold and silver. Uh, I hope that someday my children have all the gold and silver because I don't see any reason for any human being to sell gold and silver in the 21st century.
Silver also was at 50 in 1980 for what it's worth. So, it's been at 50 twice in history of and why is it lagging now? That's an extremely good question. And the only thing I can answer is because we don't seem to have an inflation boom. We don't have a commodity bubble or b commodity pop like we did before.
I mean otherwise I would suspect that silver is going to I'm I'm a buyer of silver. I said I bought more silver recently and it is if you can keep it down keep it down and I can buy some more and I will. Mining stocks are great, spectacular investments. If you can do the work and you get it right, I'm too lazy.
But if you can find the right mining stocks, you're going to make unbelievable amounts of money, but it takes work. Problem is, there are lots of mining stocks out there. Well, the people with those concerns are exactly right. US is now the largest DTOR nation in the history of the world. And if you ask me, well, I told you I own a lot of US dollars.
My plan for what it's worth is US dollars is going to go up. It's going to have another harrah. And I'm going to be smart enough to sell my US dollars because I know it's getting closer to the end. I didn't say it was the end yet. I'm just saying it's getting closer to the end cuz there's so many people who are bullish on the dollar and so many people who are long and the US debt just again I can't believe the people in Washington can't read.
I can read I know what the debt situation is and it's getting to be staggering. Now your question should be okay where are you going to put the money and that is the best question of the year for me. I don't know. I don't see a competitor for the US dollar yet. And I don't know where I'll put my money when I sell my US dollars.
And that that concerns me. It's got to be a place, but I, you know, you would think it would be the Chinese currency, but the Chinese currency is not convertible. I mean, they're making it convertible slowly, but I mean, the Chinese convertible would be the the Chinese currency would be the logical place, but it's not a convertible currency yet.
So, I don't know. I don't have an answer. If you have an answer, Jimmy, don't say it out loud. Send me an email. Send me a private email. I mean, I would just say, be very, very careful. I've told you I've sold out of most markets in the world. Many stock markets around the world have been doing extremely well.
I am if I my advice is be very very careful wherever you think about investing. This is a rare time in investing history. No, terrors have always been bad for everybody. They sometimes have worked for a short period for some people, but ultimately they usually don't work and usually they're scrapped uh everywhere and throughout history.
Uh I am not a fan of tariffs. I'm much more in favor of letting people trade and trade and trade and the world is usually better off if we all trade drink beer together or tea or whatever we want to drink. Well, the tariffs are basically a tax because the the country receiving the goods pays the tariff pays the tax and that's paid by the consumers.
I mean, ultimately and in the end, now that's not the 100% always answer, but that's normally the answer. Well, in 1925, Britain was the richest, most powerful country in the world. 50 years later, they were bankrupt. That's not a typo. 1976 the IMF had to bail out Britain because they went bankrupt.
They literally couldn't pay their bills. Um and Britain in that period of time went through exchange controls strict exchange controls on all of its on everybody in fact and it was very difficult to do anything in Britain including have a good time including travel because the debt was so ownorous and it had built up again they were the richest country in the world 100 years ago 50 years ago they were the richest country in the world.
Then 50 years ago they went bankrupt. You remember Margaret Thatcher? I mean Margaret Thatcher came in in the 70s 79 1979 and she actually had did some very good things. But what Margaret Thatcher didn't talk about a lot was 1979 was the year the North Sea oil started flowing. So Jim, if you give me the largest oil field in this world, I'll show you a very good time.
We'll have a very good time. And Margaret Thatcher did a lot of good things. But she came there with the right philosophy, a strong philosophy, but at a time when suddenly they had huge oil revenue. The data is great. I mean, everywhere in the world. I mean, one of my problems is everybody is having a good time right now.
You know, maybe well, even Usbekistsan is having a great time. I mean, China is a lagard, but they had a real estate huge bubble which popped which is hurting them. But most countries in the world, if you look at everywhere, whether it's Canada or Germany or Japan, I mean, the Japanese stock market is making all-time highs after being depressed for 35 years.
That's not a typo. 35 years, the Japanese stock market was in the doldrums. So, everybody's doing well right now. And it's great, but how long can it last? My problem is I'm old. I've been around. I've seen all these things happen before. And usually when they have happened in the past, it's time to worry.
I hope it's not. I hope it's not. Mr. Trump says everything is different now. Hooray. Well, I'm the world's worst market m technician. Technician market timer. So, you're asking the wrong person. I sold all my US stocks recently uh because I know I've seen this party before. I mean, I hope it goes on for five more years, but it rarely has.
You see a lot of new people coming into the market. You see a lot of new people talking about how much fun it is, how easy it is. It's easy to make money. As you probably know, if you read the if you read the the press, there was a whatever it's internet. Read the internet. It's you'll find that it's easy to make money.
Well, that's great. Wonderful. I hope it stays easy to make money for lots of people for the rest of the rest of history. Never has, but that would be great if we if it's going to go on for 100 more years. Oh, that's good insight that you have and very important important insight because in his historically when we've had periods like this and lots of new people have come in and started speculating and whatever they're speculating in it is usually ended badly eventually.
I mean maybe this time is different. Remember Jimmy those are very dangerous words. This time it's different but maybe it is. Maybe it's different this time. I mean, I I will repeat that I'm worried. Uh I've seen this party before and this one worries me. Well, Jimmy, I've heard the word uncertainty all my investment career.
I wish it were a new word. I wish there were no new no uncertainty. Uh no, I would suspect what will happen this time is what's happened before. Somebody is going to sell. Maybe it's you. And the next thing you know, two or three other people will. And eventually lots of people will sell. And then we'll all sit around one day in a year or so and look around say, "Oh my gosh, the market's down.
Everything is down. Look at this. It's a bare market." Uh it's not the first time we've had a bare market. And maybe it'll last a long time. I don't know. But I know that when everything is up and very few people are worried, it usually is that. And if you look around the world, I mean nearly every stock market in the world is having fun right now.
So it's rare that in history that everybody in the world is doing well. I do see rates going higher. I do see that inflation is not ended around the world. And usually when you have inflation anywhere, especially in big countries, it leads to higher interest rates. So I would suspect we will have higher interest rates in the next couple of years.
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