저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 정부 재정적자를 메우는 세금 성격이며 연준이 이를 억제할 수 없어 1970년대보다 심한 인플레이션이 올 것이라는 Peter Schiff의 비관론과, 일시적 요인이 섞여 있지만 주거·임금 측면에서 구조적으로 높게 갈 것이라는 Ackman의 견해가 맞선 토론. Peter Schiff: 2020년 통화량이 몇 달 만에 약 25% 늘었고, 연준이 금리를 0 수준으로 묶어두기 위해 채권 매입으로 돈을 계속 찍고 있어 미국 역사상 최악의 인플레이션(1970년대보다 심각)이 중·저소득층에 가장 큰 타격을 준다고 주장. 연준은 인플레이션을 부인하고 있을 뿐 실제로 대응할 능력이 없으며, 긴축하면 국가부채 위기가 올 수 있다고 봄. Sophia(모스크바 게스트, 전 중앙은행 출신): 이번 인플레이션은 수요 회복에 따른 현상이며, 선진국과 신흥국 모두 완화 정책을 펴 전 세계적으로 대칭적으로 나타난 현상이라고 설명. 본인은 인플레이션이 일시적이라는 입장. 미국 CPI 분석(게스트): 에너지 가격 급등은 작년 유가 폭락 기저효과 때문이며, 중고차와 자동차보험 급등은 공급 부족과 이동 재개에 따른 것. 헤드라인 CPI만으로는 우려가 크지 않지만 금융시장 신호는 더 우려스럽다고 언급. Bill Ackman: 주거 등가임대료 등 CPI 집계 방식이 주거 인플레이션을 과소 반영하고 있으며, 주택 시장은 호황이고 주택 가격은 크게 오르고 있음. 임금 상승(인력 확보를 위해 임금을 올려야 함)도 일시적이 아니라고 봄. 약 5조 달러 규모의 경기부양, 높은 저축, 백신 접종 확산이 맞물려 강한 성장과 수요를 낳고 있으며, 연준은 여전히 과도하게 완화적이어서 금리는 오를 것이라고 전망. 경제는 9월 이후 매우 강할 것이라고 봄. 기타: 텐티네 SPAC 거래(유니버설 관련) 관련해 SEC가 구조에 제동을 걸어 거래가 무산되고 18개월 내 다른 합병을 찾아야 하는 상황, 그리고 직원 백신 접종 독려 발언도 포함.
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i think people are done you're going to see a massive my view economic boom i think we're going to have an extremely strong economy come the fall i think people are going to return well you laid it out correctly in the intro inflation is a tax and the source is government because that's who taxes us the only way to reduce inflation would be to dramatically cut government spending because government spending is being paid for through inflation we're running record budget deficits and so instead of taking our money and spending it the government is taking our purchasing power by printing new money and spending that so the increase in prices that we're all experiencing is the tax that we are paying to finance government in addition the federal reserve is trying to prop up the stock market prop up the real estate market and prop up the us government it can only do that by keeping interest rates artificially low but in order to do that the fed has to keep printing money to buy bonds so as long as the fed is artificially suppressing interest rates it is going to have to create inflation to do it and because we have so much debt the fed is now forced to keep interest rates at zero and that so unfortunately average americans the middle class and the working poor are going to suffer the most severe bout of inflation in u.s history far greater than anything experienced during the decade of the 1970s well you know let me go to pete here in in great barrington i mean one of the explanations i've been told and it's basically coming from the fed this is all temporary it's bent up demand it's gonna you know it'll smooth out as we but that's not happening here okay and and and i mentioned the working class middle class people in my introduction intentionally because i remember i was small i was young but i do remember the 1970s and that was a very very dreary time are we seeing a repeat of that go ahead pete yeah i remember uh stagnation too as a kid in the 70s so i agree with everything that uh peter just said peter schiff but i i do want to add the following um you know we did have a massive increase in the money supply in 2020 just over 25 in a space of a few months which is definitely a cause for concern but a lot of people are looking at the year-over-year cpi numbers and it's not enough to look at the headline number you have to look at what makes up the index there's two big contributors to the recent jump right so first you have gasoline and oil in the energy basket which we're up over 50 percent year over year but you have to remember that right about a year ago this time we had a situation where russia and saudi arabia unleashed a flood of oil into the markets when demand was plummeting because of lockdowns so you've had this surge in oil prices but it's come from where one point we had west texas international that or intermediate rather at negative 32 dollars or negative 34 dollars a barrel the second thing is we've got a huge spike in used cars and auto insurance 30 and 17 increases respectively which has to do with shortages and people getting back on the road so there are signs of inflation it's worrisome uh but in terms of the cpi number while not an inflation dove that's not very alarming what we see in financial markets that's more alarming okay well let's let's go to our guest in moscow here sophia uh i'm i'm very concerned i mean if you look at it globally where is most of this inflation coming from because we have a lot of western governments have pumped huge amounts of money which i find really in some cases it was absolutely necessary i i don't have a problem with that but i mean there's so much money that has been allocated to be pumped into the economy is it really necessary right now because from what i understand a lot of these glowing inc you know uh gdp numbers and all that you know they're saying oh they're all great but is is that counting inflation is inflation pumping up those numbers they're not really real numbers here can you can you make an assessment on a global um a scale when it comes to inflation when because we just mentioned oil used cars saudi arabia russia globally where is the the biggest um uh tripping point if i could put it that way go ahead well i would say that uh we are not talking about like any scenarios like stagflation first of all just because the spike of inflation is exactly the product of the recovery of demand and it's like you know probably most unusual is that it's a very uh very symmetric across the globe and the reaction to the crisis was very symmetric across the globe so it was quite different from previous to crisis just because like not only advanced economies uh offered uh excessive stimulus not only from a fiscal side but also from a monetary side but first time in two decades emerging markets also offered quite an easy monetary policy so that's that's that's actually makes it a global phenomenon but i probably i would disappoint you but as a former or probably being a former center banker i'm on that side who believe that inflation is a temporary er effect for now okay well that's interesting because you can tell you there's that that's the perspective i keep getting here let me go back to peter here is is the fed being responsible here because i mean it's just not over the last 14 months or so that we've seen increase uh huge injections here we've we've seen a a lot of really easy money for a long time now and and then we got supercharged go ahead peter well remember the federal reserve is never responsible uh so why should they change now but remember one of the other things the fed is never is honest right the fed is all about spin it's all about trying to ins so if you recall early in the mortgage crisis when the subprime market blew up and the threat to the entire mortgage market was obvious as was the threat to the economy what did the federal reserve do they came out and reassured everybody that there was nothing to worry about that the subprime problems were contained why did they do that because they were hoping that by denying that the problem existed maybe they could somehow uh will it out of existence and somehow get people to change their behavior in the face of what should have been an obvious crisis and they were hoping to avert averted and i think they're doing the same thing now the fed has absolutely no ability to fight inflation so why even acknowledge that it's a threat when you can't do anything about it so the only thing the fed can do is deny lie to the markets tell everybody that it's all temporary and that explains their failure to act but the real failure to act is because it's impossible because the only way to fight inflation is to turn off the monetary spigots to raise interest rates of card's economy that they've erected we have a worse financial crisis in 2008 the government would be forced to slash spending dramatically they may even have to default on the national debt who knows what would happen if the fed actually fought inflation so because they can't they're just denying the problem but there is absolutely no evidence to suggest what we're really experiencing is the beginning of a long overdue huge increase in the cost of living not only the result of the inflation that the fed has created since the pandemic but of all the inflation that we created before the pandemic that we've yet to deal with uh so just to rewind um if we go back just a few weeks we announced a transaction and a couple weeks later before we signed the deal the sec came to us and said we have some concern about whether remain code this entity we were creating was going to become an investment company in order to address the sec's concern we changed the structure of the deal to provide that we're going to contribute the stock that we purchased to a trust and we thought that would address the issue and then we signed the deal and then we pushed forward with the transaction and then actually in the last this week the last few days the sec raised i would say a deal killer which is they they said that in their view uh the transaction did not meet the new york stock exchange spec rules and what that meant but i would call that a dagger in the heart of the transaction and put you know tontine in a very awkward you know spot and uh you know we love universal we were excited to bring this deal to the persian square taunting shareholders um not being able to do the transaction we offered to take it off the hands of the public company that was actually built into the transaction the right to assign to an affiliate and uh we've uh also assumed an indemnity obligation some expenses so that we put tontine kind of back in the place where it was as if we hadn't done the deal and now we have 18 months to find another transaction and that one's going to be a merger you know this one we structure the way we did really to uh accommodate the ability to acquire universal because we were so excited about the business and we wanted to be owned by our shareholders um sec didn't like it um and therefore we uh we're going to find we're going to do a more conventional merger but our intent was to do a merger all along it was really the vendis uh you know some issues on their side that caused us to structure the deal this way bill was this just too complicated uh you know i think a lot of us including myself struggle to be able to articulate and explain to the public what exactly uh this was it was very different in many ways than a traditional spat clearly uh the investors also uh felt perhaps that this was too complex because uh they they started selling effectively the shares and then and they and they fell in price sure so what happened was i think we really have two kinds of investors we went public we got to select all the investors and we picked investors who had a very long term orientation they wanted to you know they were kind of going to be partners with us and buying a business we owned for the next you know multiple years in our case you know probably a decade or more and then i would say the reddit community got excited about tontine and a lot of shorter term investors came in and said look i want to bet on a deal being announced you know the day one pop a lot of those investors were levered a lot of those investors bought options and we announced a deal that unfortunately is very bad if you're levered or if you own options because when we the requirement to put the stock in a trust account is very uh detrimental of your margin holder it's also very detrimental if you're an option holder so we probably had none of those investors came into the ipo but by the time of announcement about a third of our stock i think was held by people hoping you know that we're going to announce a transaction the stock doubles you know if you will the first day there are a lot of investors that have been investing in specs that way and i have no no issue with a short-term investor and we we didn't design the transaction to affect short-term investors but we were really focused on creating kind of long-term value what's interesting is all of these problems go away by the end of the year um you know the issues that people were concerned about is one my stock that you buy and i'm going to get i'm not going to get for four months it's going to sit in a trust account we didn't like that but that was really something you know we had to do for regulatory reasons another issue universal i would just stick with it for one second but universal it was going to be a dutch listed company people didn't love that but we believed you know by the time that we distributed the stock to shareholders it would likely be uh hopefully be a new york stock exchange listed company so each of these problems if you could hold the stock for six months i think people would do very very well but unfortunately i would say a meaningful percentage of our investors needed to hold it for a much shorter period of time and the you know it had a negative impact on them and that that i think has driven the stock down i hope what it does is it motivates anyone who doesn't have a vaccine to get a vaccine um i don't think it's going to change behavior to a great extent i think people are done i am with uh you know being in a cave right uh hiding from the rest of the world they want to go out they're going to have fun they're going to go to restaurants you're going to see a massive my view economic boom um you know on the margin there'll be some people who are afraid some people are afraid of getting a vaccine and they're therefore afraid of going out um but i don't think i think we're going to have an extremely strong economy come the fall i think people going to return to work in september and i think companies are going to insist on vaccines and i think it's a good thing and you know i i have you know even some people in my own company that uh i would say probably three people who haven't gotten a vaccine and um in one case you know sort of a philosophical objection or maybe a religious one and you know my question is you take antibiotics you take other drugs you have you know if you take an antibiotic for you know some other kind of infection why won't you you know have a vaccine and would you rather other people are concerned about the risk and uh you know the risk is in my view a lot greater that you get covid than if you look at the side effects i'm getting so what what's what's going to be the the bill ackman policy what's going to be the policy so for those three people together yeah so i'm doing my best to convince everyone who hasn't gotten a vaccine with by being convincing and then we'll by the time we everyone comes back to work we'll decide what we're going to do about our vaccine policy um i also want to ask you just three percent yeah i wanted to ask you about inflation uh and and both the inflation that we are seeing maybe some of the supply chain issues that are are creating some of this uh the big question is this is this the new normal or is it transitory i'm in more of closer to the new normal with respect to many sources of inflation so one i think inflation is understated you know there's very very significant uh kind of they talk about home equivalent rents or ownership equivalent rents and those are really understated if you look at what's going on in the housing market we have a housing boom you know talk to a home builder you know there's everything's being is on allocation you have to you know and have a friend who knows the ceo in order to get by buy a home so that it's uh you're seeing housing prices go way up i think the way the data is collected uh for you know the uh the kind of cpi or other inflation numbers really understate what's going on uh in housing that's you know approaching a third of inflation's there's housing inflation there's real wage inflation you know one of the big issues and i think this is not a transitory thing at all uh which is recruiting let you know uh trying to get people to come work in a hotel work in a restaurant i think it's harder now because of uh some of the stimulus i think will be a little bit easier uh come september but a lot of people made sort of life choices and various things um i think you're gonna have to pay people to come to work and i think that's a that's actually a big positive it's probably a long-term positive for the economy so you've had you know five trillion of stimulus you have an increase in wages you have a lot of savings you have the stimulus of a lot of people being vaccinated around the same time all these things lead to massive massive economic growth and demand and we still have an extremely accommodative federal reserve so i think rates are going up i think rates are going up you
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