저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Ackman는 단기 주가 예측은 하지 않는다고 밝히며, 보유 기업들은 실적이 좋을 것이고 장기적으로 가치가 오를 것이라고 본다. 퍼싱스퀘어홀딩스(PSH)는 순자산가치(NAV) 대비 약 28~29%의 역대급 할인율로 거래되고 있어 비정상적이며, 이 할인율은 좁혀질 것으로 본다. 새 투자 기회가 생기면 단기간에도 할인 축소가 가능하다고 언급. 유니버설뮤직(UMG)은 주가가 매입가 대비 약 1/3 올랐지만, 워너뮤직과 비슷한 배수에 거래되고 있어 여전히 저평가라고 주장. 과거 4년간 영업이익이 연 20%대로 성장했다고 강조. 시장 조정 질문에는 단기 전망은 말할 수 없다고 답변. S&P500 개별 기업 가치평가는 분석하지 않았다고 함. 비트코인은 근본가치 없는 투기적 상품으로 사상 최고가 부근이라고 평가했으나, 실제 사업모델이 있는 일부 암호화폐는 가치가 있다고 봄. 거시적으로는 재정·저금리 지원이 전례 없는 수준이며, 델타 변이 상황이 호전되어 대면 경제와 여행·소비가 크게 회복될 것으로 낙관. 전반적으로 경제에는 강세(bullish)이지만 금리에는 약세(bearish) 견해. 2022년 대응 전략으로는 트레이딩보다 장기 보유를 강조하며, 인플레이션이 지속될 경우 가격 결정력(pricing power)이 있는 최고의 기업을 보유해야 한다고 주장. 인플레이션이 지속되면 주식시장 내 양극화(일부 대박, 일부 부진)가 심해질 것으로 예상. 원자재 트레이딩은 자신의 전문 분야가 아니라고 선을 그음.
다듬은 글
i think all of our businesses are going to report good results and over time as businesses report we don't think any of our businesses are undervalued we think they are overvalued we think the opposite we think we're undervalued undervalued companies reporting good results stocks should do well absent some you know overarching macro or market so i i never make short-term stock market predictions because i think it's a really difficult thing to do and the probability of getting it wrong i think is high i think all of our businesses are going to report good results and does that mean the stocks will go up i can't i can't speak to the next short period of time but over time as businesses report you know business the value of a business the present value the cash generates over his life the quarter report of strong earnings and cash flows and growth over a previous period is suggestive of growth in the intrinsic value of the business and we don't think any of our businesses are undervalued we think they are overvalued we think the opposite we think the render value so undervalued companies reporting good results stocks should do well absent some you know overarching macro or market development again i speak over time and the other thing i would point out is persian square holdings is trading at about one of the widest discounts to net asset value it's traded at historically it's approaching a you know it's what 28 29 discounts may be and i find that just a remarkable i don't you know i don't know i don't know of other stocks like that right we own some of the highest quality businesses in the world um and uh you can buy them at almost a 30 discount the price you see it on the screen by buying it through us that seems anomalous to me so i would think that discount's gonna narrow and and that is something that can happen on a shorter term basis because you know so for example if we find a new investment for the capital that we've raised in this bond offering and we announced a new investment that's interesting that should remind people of the opportunity to earn incremental returns on that capital um and uh i don't know we've had another i think a relatively strong year this year after a couple of extraordinary years and i think universal itself while the stock's up nicely you know maybe a third from the price we paid just when we closed on the shares a month ago um it's trading at about the same multiple as warner music which is a controlled company a more levered company a number three player in the industry uh universal has grown at 20 operating income at 21 per annum for the last four years warner about half that um we've got the best management team in the industry most market share so i think the market has yet to give universal an appropriate premium and that's one of our biggest holdings i think again that just takes time so i think biggest opportunity for value creation and produce we're holding since the discount it's just too wide here well a couple of um things that investors are worried about they're worried about um valuations but you've just addressed that regarding your own portfolio i mean they're also worried about supply chain issues which are causing problems globally um now there's a lot of talk about a major correction is now due i know you don't like speculating on short-term movements but where do you on that argument about whether a a correction is around the corner i mean whether that be just um you know taking out a bit of the froth from the market i mean do you think they're right again i i really can't speak to the short term which is what the stock market's going to do um you know what's interesting is you know we don't i would have to analyze every the meaningful percentage of the companies in the s p 500 to give you a view on whether it's cheap or expensive um there is a lot of speculative stuff going on you know i think fundamentally bitcoin is a speculative instrument it's trading i think at the all-time highs you see a lot of specular stuff going on in in a much broader group of cryptocurrencies um all that being said i think there are some real uh cryptocurrencies that have are associated with what they call projects or business models that can justify fundamental value for a currency so i think there's really interesting stuff going on in technology with cryptocurrencies with you know i do a lot of venture capital personally and that gives me a peek into what going on in the world i think there's a lot of great developments but and uh i do think we've had an unprecedented amount of fiscal and uh you know uh low rate support um you know it seems like we're this delta variant uh the statistics are looking a lot more favorable uh in our country and uh certainly in europe in the uk and i think more broadly i just i see a path through the through the uh through the virus so and we're gonna have a world where people are really gonna wanna live again and uh so i think you're gonna see a big pick up in the surface economy hospitality travel um people spending money and uh so i just think that's a pretty strong backdrop you know low rates well capitalized banks well capitalized consumer um a desire to live again you know we could have a very very strong economy i think we probably will um you know the constraints are constraints but they're driven by all the demand and i think people are going to come back to work you're going to be in offices again so i'm i'm generally bullish on the economy and uh you know i'm more bearish on rates so so look you've mentioned a few themes there i was going to ask given how 2021 has played out what's your view on the big themes that investors globally really should be preparing for in 2022 were there any stocks or sectors ideas uh investors should be thinking about knowing um okay i think the world's an uncertain place and we're not traders at all right we're looking to own things that we're to the stock market closed for a decade we're happy to own it that's certainly true for universal and our other companies in the portfolio but we own these super durable robust businesses because i have no idea what the world's going to look like in six or 12 months or i have a pretty good idea of a view of what things are going to be but they may not be that way so you want to own businesses that have pricing power if you know inflation turns to be a lot more durable than than temporary you know i think inflation expectation uh has changed fundamentally that's also the driver of inflation so i think we're going to see inflation i think that is going to be a three i think so i think there's gonna be a more likelihood of stock market divergence some companies doing very very well some companies doing very very poorly you know companies that can't pass through wage inflation and goods inflation to their customers are going to do poorly if i'm right about inflation so the better the business the better it does i think and you want to own the best businesses in the world in an uncertain world in an inflationary world um if you're good or better than we are at trading commodities you know there's probably a ton of money to be made i just don't it's not what we do great bill ackman um ceo of persian square holdings thank you very much for joining me today sure thank you lee appreciate it you
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