저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 조정은 대부분 끝났고 유동성 복귀 시 1분기 단기 조정 후 반등 가능성이 크다는 시각. 시장 흐름: 2018년처럼 연준이 인플레이션을 선제 대응하다 시장이 급락했던 전례가 있으며, 이번엔 연준이 대응이 늦어 조정이 느리고 늦게 진행 중이라고 봄. 과거 고성장 성장주의 PER 50~70배가 20배 수준으로 재평가되었지만 기업 성장은 유지됨. 유동성: 머니마켓·muni에 대기 중인 수조 달러의 자금이 복귀할 수 있으며, 컴퓨터 알고리즘·ETF·패시브 자금의 영향으로 급락 후 반등 속도가 빠를 것이라 전망. 금리 지표: 10년물 금리의 1차·2차 미분(변화 속도)이 안정되고 있다는 점을 핵심 신호로 제시. 10년물 브레이크이븐 인플레이션을 주목하며, 일시적 인플레이션 수준이라면 100bp 금리 인상이 소화될 것으로 봄. 이 경우 1분기 단기 조정 후 다시 상승 가능. 암호화폐: 유동성 의존 자산인 암호화폐(비트코인·이더리움)는 최근 큰 타격을 받았으며, 유동성이 많을수록 투기 자산으로 자금이 몰린다고 언급. 출연자는 '무상관(uncorrelated)'이라는 기대가 빗나갔다고 지적. 연준 평가: 12월 중순 금리 환경에 대한 명확한 가이던스로 확실성을 줬으나, 3주 후 FOMC 의사록에서 불확실성을 키웠다고 비판. 과거 위기 때 과잉 반응(양적완화)했고 지금은 긴축 과잉으로 경기침체 위험이 커졌다고 주장. 정부 정책: 코로나 이후 락다운 등 과잉 봉쇄, 대규모 재정·통화 확대 후 급격한 긴축 전환을 비판하며 올해 경기침체 위험이 크다고 봄. 리스크: 연준의 과잉 긴축이 경기침체를 유발할 가능성, 유동성 축소 지속 시 반등 실패 가능성. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정 후 1분기 이후 반등 가능성 우세, 다만 연준 정책에 따라 경기침체 리스크 상존.
다듬은 글
you may see a quick pullback you know in q1 and we're back to the races again because of all this other money that's going to say i got to get back in and if you look at all these corrections in the world of computer traded algorithms and etfs and passive money and it's all the snapbacks are so fast you correct 20 and then whoop you whip it back and you go they have a little bit of a track record of this so in 2018 it looked like there was going to be inflation and powell tried to get ahead of it and he raised rates and the the market completely collapsed and they were looking i think a chinese data at the time and it looked like you know china was turning you know going crazy then china completely turned over it was a complete head fake the economy wasn't reporting inflation didn't exist and um they basically just curtailed a lot of investment and destroyed a bunch of value so this time around i think they're very sensitive to not correcting too quickly but then the opposite thing happened which is they probably waited a little too long and now you know we're correcting too slowly too late into the cycle and we're just sort of digesting that reality and so i think that you know we're probably to be honest with you like actually like we've puked it all out for the most part in my opinion you have to remember right like the big difference between now and even 10 and frankly more importantly 20 30 40 50 years ago is how many computers are involved that trade how much passive money is involved that owns assets and how much of this stuff is sitting on the sidelines still in money market accounts and muni's so if you look at those markets there is a ton trillions of dollars waiting to find a home and what we've now done and brad's charts show this is we've basically chopped the head off of all of these fast-growing growth multiple the underlying companies have not changed once until it right these companies are still growing by crazy amounts like snowflake is still an incredible business unbelievable but the multiple that one was willing to pay has been has been very much re-rated as is a bunch of other so let me ask you a question if we've gone from these 50 60 70 multiples time sales and now it goes back down to 20.
is that dare i say a buy signal well those trillions of dollars start moving back in because who wants to be in a money market i don't know and i i can't really call these things but one a really smart person that i talked to this week you know he actually liquidated everything in october and november and you know and i i don't know we talked about this on the pod but you know i was feeling so much tension at the end of last year i actually when i look back on q4 it was probably the most difficult quarter of my professional life in just trying to manage risk and i exited a ton of positions all my pipes you know my third party pipes i basically sold off except for one you know i generated some liquidity in other places as well and i was glad that i did that in part because i saw you know what he was doing and in part because you know jeff and elon were selling and i thought i mean this is just this is crazy to sit on the sidelines and you know be the bag holder here going into q1 i talked to the same guys and what he said to me which i think is very smart is you have to really look at the first and second derivative of the 10-year bond because when that stops moving like the 10-year bond is this beautiful barometer of the collective wisdom of every single investor in the world about what they think about long-term growth and inflation and it's a really important market you know we've talked many times look at the 10-year break-even if you want to understand where inflation is going we started to talk about that seven months ago and if you look at that the rate of change so the volatility in the 10-year yield is slowing way down and if that continues to hold that means that people are really saying there's a small amount of real inflation a reasonable amount of transitory inflation and we're about to kind of wash most of it through the system with you know 100 basis points of rate hikes and if that's the case then you may see a quick pullback you know in q1 and we're back to the races again because of all this other money that's going to say i got to get back in and if you look at all these corrections in the world of computer traded algorithms and etfs and passive money and it's all the snapbacks are so fast you correct 20 and then whoop you whip it back and you go i guess my big prediction for uh business losers this year were asset classes that were highly dependent on liquidity you guys predicted crypto would be one of those clearly it's taken a massive hit um have you seen how much the crypto markets are off just in the last week so it's um so much for them being uncorrelated and the more liquidity there is out there the more money can flow into a more speculative asset class but look my my objection to this i mean is that if you look at the fed's actions i mean i think chamath is right that they waited way too long to react and during the crisis they overreacted i mean they pumped i mean we on a previous pod we showed the assets between under reaction and overreach yes exactly and and now they're i think they're in they're going into overreacting again i actually think they nailed it in in mid-december they nailed it by giving us business certainty around what the new rate environment was going to be and just three weeks later in the minutes to that very meeting they completely undermined the certainty or the the greater level of certainty and predict the predictability that they had provided markets they've now introduced massive uncertainty so it's just it's unbelievable it's like they're pilots and like they stalled the plane and then they're like oh let's pull back we'll notice all this more they're kind of pulling out the manual and learning in real time yeah and it's like you need to just point the nose down a bit and add a little bit of speed so you get some lift like it really is tragic the performance of our government at every level over since covet at the last you know since 2020 i mean it's been abysmal i mean first you have the self-inflicted wound of lockdowns i mean the economy is going to take a hit no matter what because highly at-risk people would have stayed home and reduced their economic activity but instead of just protecting the at-risk people we had to lock down the entire economy we padlocked elon's factories and on and on so we basically shut down the whole economy for no reason and states like california kept it going way longer than they had to so then the government just prints like five six trillion and the fed doubles the size of his balance sheet and then now they're abruptly getting off drugs i mean look they put us on drugs and now they're going cold turkey and so i think there's actually like a much greater risk now of the economy going to recession this year because of the fed's overreaction this week i mean they had they had the goldilocks scenario down about three weeks ago and i think they're going to tank the thing now or there's a much greater risk of that
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