저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국 인플레이션은 2022년에 더 악화될 것이며, 이는 Fed의 양적완화와 재정지출 확대 때문이라는 주장. 생산자물가(PPI)가 올해 10개월간 연환산 약 8.3% 상승했고, 기업들이 가격 인상을 미뤄 왔으나 내년에 밀린 인상분까지 합쳐 '이중 충격'이 올 것이라고 전망. 인프라 법안과 Build Back Better 법안 등 재정지출을 위해 Fed가 채권을 계속 매입해야 하므로 QE가 다시 확대될 것이라는 전망. 출연자는 Fed의 QE 축소는 사실상 무의미하며, 실질적으로는 양적긴축(QT)으로 전환하고 금리를 올려야 한다고 주장. 해결책으로 Fed가 대차대조표를 축소하고 금리를 인상하며 정부가 지출을 대폭 줄여야 하지만, 정치적으로 수용 불가능하다고 평가. 주식시장과 부동산시장이 하락해 버블이 꺼져야 인플레이션을 잡을 수 있으며, 이 과정에서 평범한 미국인이 큰 고통을 겪을 것이라고 경고. 인플레이션은 경기가 너무 강해서가 아니라 경제가 약해서 생긴다고 주장하며, 정부가 OPEC 증산을 요구하면서 국내 석유·가스 생산은 억제하는 모순을 지적. 부유층 세금과 관련해, 부자가 소득을 투자하여 경제성장에 기여하는 만큼 부유세는 위헌이며, 사치품 소비세가 현실적 대안이라고 언급. 종목별 직접 언급은 없고 주식·부동산 시장 전반의 하락 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
goldman sachs actually warned inflation will get worse before it gets better as we continue to see supply issues coupled with rising energy prices do you consider that a valid claim considered these latest numbers well i think they're half right i think it's going to get worse before it gets much worse please elaborate peter well i mean the inflation pipeline is is pretty full in fact if you look at the ppi numbers that came out today in the first 10 months of the year producer prices are up 8.3 percent annualize that for the full year and that's 10 increase uh which is quite a bit larger i think consumer prices are up maybe about 6 during the same time period so that means companies are absorbing a lot of the price increases and i think they've been reluctant to pass them on because they've been hoping that the fed was right and that the inflation is transitory but i think as they realize that the fed was wrong and that inflation is here to stay not only are they going to be passing on uh the rate or the price increases next year but they're going to pass on this year's increases that they have been holding off on so i think we're going to get a double barrel in 2022 which means the consumer prices are going to move up a lot more next year than they did this year well and peter it seems like the goal posts keep getting moved when it comes to the transitory inflation relief if you will the fed obviously took steps last week to roll back some of its qe and other easy monetary policy but will that really have any effect on the pressures that we're feeling now or is that all too little too late well first of all they're still doing quantitative easing even if they're doing slightly less of it and of course this is just temporary they're going to back up the truck and do even more qe because they just passed the 1.2 trillion dollar infrastructure bill you've got another one that's even larger uh build back better whatever they're calling it that one is going to pass so where's all the money going to come from to pay for all this government spending they're not getting it from higher taxes so they're going to get it all from the fed and the fed is going to have to expand its asset purchase program to buy up all these bonds that are going to be sold to finance all this spending and the way how do you make some interesting points about what the administration is doing here because the white house has made meager attempts to rein in the rising costs for americans and one of the big aspects here has been rising fuel costs so they've even called on opec to increase oil output to stabilize rising gas prices in the us but on the other hand their message tends to be that the economy recovered too fast is just doing too well and that's why we're having all of this crazy inflation what do you make of that comment yeah first of all you know they want opec to produce more but they want domestic uh oil and gas companies to produce less you know we need to produce our own oil uh not beg the the opec nations to produce more uh but you're absolutely right on um the the the whole concept of this of inflation and the the the idea that it's somehow the price we pay for prosperity this is nonsense i mean governments have been trying to rationalize and blame the public for inflation uh you know for decades it's not about the economy being too strong it's actually about the economy being too weak and because the economy is so weak we're printing all this money and that is the source of the problem we're producing money not stuff and so the price of the stuff is going up meanwhile we are importing record amounts of stuff we have never imported more products than we're importing right now but despite this surge in imports prices are still going up because the economy is so weak that we can't produce enough even to fill that gap with record uh imports peter i always like to think of myself as a solutions oriented person and i you know we tend to talk about all the problems and why it's getting worse but at this point is there any solution to these problems when we're this deep into it well there are no politically acceptable solutions uh you know the solution is to stop the presses the fed has to go cold turkey on qe not just try to taper it in fact we need to reverse the process go back to quantitative tightening the fed needs to shrink its balance sheet withdraw money from circulation allow interest rates to rise right now not hold them at zero and of course that means the government has to start slashing spending not only can't we have the infrastructure bill or the build back better bill we need to start getting rid of spending that's already happening the government is spending too much money uh and you know the stock market's going to have to come down the real estate market's going to have to come down a lot of bubbles are going to have to deflate if we're going to address the inflation problem but unfortunately none of that's going to happen and so the inflation problem is going to get much much worse and that means the average american has a huge problem that he's going to have to live with and potentially deal with if they can absolutely peter i want to go back to something you were talking about earlier because you were talking about the tax burden just a little bit and i happened to be on your twitter account earlier and i noticed something that you tweeted out which was basically saying that instead of trying to you know just tax billionaires that you should what you should send the taxes essentially when they're buying luxury goods for themselves when they're spending money on themselves i know we're showing that on the screen right now peter why do you think that would work to kind of at least help the treasury to get some funds in there well that is the best way to taxes on you know excise taxes sales taxes or things like that but if you want billionaires to pay taxes then have higher sales taxes on the things that billionaires like to buy i mean i'm not sure how much revenue ultimately you're going to raise i mean you're certainly going to raise revenue if you tax you know yachts and private jets and stuff like that when when they people rent them or when they buy them but you're not going to get it through the wealth tax because that's unconstitutional also trying to redefine income and claiming that you know unrealized gains constitute income that's unconstitutional also but the other point i was trying to make is don't begrudge the billionaires for the billions that they earned and that they don't spend because when billionaires earn their money uh they're helping the economy grow they're helping to produce goods and services they're creating jobs it's only when they use their wealth for themselves right when they actually spend it on things to to enjoy that's when they're starting to you know reap the rewards of their labor in the meantime they're allowing their wealth to benefit everybody other than themselves because the wealth is out there contributing to economic growth so don't tax the wealthy when they accumulate their wealth and as they're earning it wait until they start to spend it and enjoy it for themselves because prior to that they're basically acting like public benefactors because this money is doing much better good for the economy than when you give it to government so if the if the government just raises taxes on billionaires and money that billionaires otherwise would have invested ends up being sent to the government that is a huge loss for the country because the government is a much worse steward of capital than the entrepreneurs who earn it and money invested in the private sector does far more to help the economy than money spent by by bureaucrats and i think that i just thought it was an interesting point that you made because yes i mean i i don't always know if that argument that you know they're doing good with their money when they're just spending it to create jobs and all of that especially when you're talking about the billionaire billionaires here uh but i thought that was a great idea peter schiff chief economist and global strategist with euro pacific capital thank you so much for your insight today sure thanks
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