저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국 경제 붕괴가 이미 시작됐다는 주장. 중국의 미 국채 매입 중단 소식을 경고 신호로 해석하고, 국채 금리 급등이 2008년식 위기로 이어질 것이라고 봄. 주요 논거: 중국이 최대 매수자인 미 국채 수요가 사라지면 재정적자 확대 상황에서 금리가 오르고, 저금리라는 '티저 금리'가 만료되면 국가부채 21조 달러가 감당 불가능해진다는 주장. 금리·유가·달러 흐름: 10년물 금리는 2018년 9월경 약 2.1%에서 12월 약 2.5% 수준으로 상승했고 30년물도 오름. 유가는 4년 신고점(배럴당 약 63달러대)을 돌파했으며 이후 80달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 달러는 중국 위안화 대비 사상 최저치 경신을 예상. 증시 평가: 다우 25,000 등 주가 수준이 채권 시장 버블에 기대어 정당화되고 있으며, 채권 버블이 꺼지면 주식 버블도 꺼진다고 주장. 과거 사례 회고: 2007년 주택버블과 서브프라임 경고가 무시·조롱당했던 경험을 언급하며, 지금이 그 2007년과 같은 시점이라고 주장. 리스크: 금리 정상화 시 금리 상승 폭이 과도할 수 있고, 연방준비제도 대차대조표 축소와 중국 매도가 겹치면 자금 조달이 어려워진다는 점. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 미 국채 가격 하락(금리 상승), 달러 약세, 유가 상승, 주가 버블 붕괴를 예고. 2008년식 금융위기 재연 가능성 강조.
다듬은 글
a that nobody rings a bell at the top and that saying relates to the stock market investors you know there's never a clear warning sign supposedly of when they get out but my experience is actually the opposite I think there's a lot of bells that get rung not necessarily at the very top but certainly close to it it's just that they're ignored or if they're heard they're rationalized away another such bell was wrong overnight we had a Bloomberg report early this morning coming out of China that the Chinese government was going to stop buying US Treasuries now this is potentially an ominous sign because a China is the largest buyer and owner of US Treasuries in the world but B we just cut taxes we cut taxes and not spending so we are financing these tax cuts by borrowing more money by running bigger deficits by selling more bonds and if the largest buyer and owner of those bonds is saying no mas well then that is a big problem because who is going to step up to replace the Chinese but also if the Chinese aren't gonna buy who else isn't going to buy I mean why would anybody want to buy US Treasuries I mean even if you didn't harbor the gloom and doom type perspective that I do right if you're just your typical investor who's just looking at historic bond prices why would you want to buy US Treasuries now I mean aren't there other assets that you would rather own then extremely low yielding US Treasury bonds so if the Chinese don't want to buy it stands to reason a lot of other people don't want to buy either especially if they know that Chinese are not buying but of course if the Chinese are not buying does that mean they're selling I mean if they don't think Treasuries are worth buying well are they worth owning you would think that if they don't want to buy anymore that means that they want to sell you know in fact when Wall Street puts a hold on something that means sell right so if China is putting a hold on US Treasuries that means get the hell out of US Treasuries because the Chinese want to sell and of course you know they're probably not gonna want to say that they want to sell if that's what they want to do I mean it's even amazing that they would acknowledge that they're not gonna buy anymore maybe somehow that slipped out and who knows they may even deny that but that would make sense because you don't want the price to go down if you want to sell I mean if you're just gonna stop buying that I suppose it doesn't really matter you could just hold your Treasuries till maturity and that's another thing the Chinese don't have to necessarily sell their Treasuries they just let them mature after all that's what the Federal Reserve is claiming it's gonna do with its own balance sheet right it's gonna shrink its balance sheet in theory by not rolling over maturing securities well the Chinese government do the same thing hey if they're saying they're not gonna buy anymore that might mean that we're not going to replace the bonds that mature we're just gonna ask for our money back well where is government gonna get it where is the US Treasury gonna get China's money back if China's not gonna loan it to them again if the Federal Reserve isn't loaning it again we're they gonna get the money they can't they can't get it from anywhere that is the problem you know it's amazing how few people are worried about a problem so potentially ominous as this one remember nobody was worried about the 2008 financial crisis right nobody I mean you could turn on financial television look at all these experts and nobody was worried I was the only guy and to the extent that I said anything about what was gonna happen I got laughed at now you don't even have that you know I even remember to some of these stations fox or CNBC when they were criticized about all their coverage of how great everything was in o6o no7 and no.8 and i said hey why didn't you warn anybody why didn't you have any coverage they would actually point to the fact that they had me on they would say what we had Peter so it wasn't like you know we didn't have anybody on that was saying bad things are gonna happen well they're not gonna be able to say that next time because they don't have me on anymore they don't have anybody on really that is pointing out which should be obvious to all their other guests but all their other guests are missing an even bigger crisis then they miss before again what was the financial crisis about it was about too much debt right people took out too much debt well we got even more debt now than we had then and a big problem was rising interest rates now when it came to the financial crisis the housing crisis started that and what happened there and I pointed this out for years and it had to do with teaser rates people were buying homes that they really couldn't afford but they could afford to make the payments on the teaser rate they had an introductory rate for the first couple of years they had very low payments now after a couple years the prices were gonna reset or the race would reset to a level that was much higher and two levels that most buyers couldn't afford and I was pointing out that the reason people were buying houses knowing that they couldn't pay the mortgage in a couple years was because they thought the price was gonna go up and they would profit they would refinance into another loan with another teaser rate or they would just sell their house and cash in on their guaranteed profit because after all real estate could only go up and so I knew that eventually higher payments on mortgages we're going to prick this bubble and that is exactly what happened well that's what's happened now only on a bigger scale the United States Treasury has a teaser rate on a twenty one trillion dollar national debt and what the Chinese are saying with this bail that they're ringing is that that teaser rate may be expiring soon and interest rates may be going back to normal in fact not only back to normal they're gonna go much higher than normal because first of all when you have a pendulum right it doesn't you know it doesn't stop in the middle when it goes all the way to one side and then it swings back it goes in an equal distance to the other side so if we're going from ridiculously low interest rates record low interest rates basically we could go to record high interest rates or even if we don't go to record high interest rates at least historically high right we can go from being historically low to being historically high but if we only go to being historically normal or average that is a catastrophe you see the people who are ignoring this problem they have to assume that interest rates will never normalize that these ridiculously low interest rates that we have are going to stay here forever now that seems to be a crazy assumption right what's more crazy to assume that interest rates will eventually go back to normal or to assume that they're never going to go back to normal but that is what you have to assume the latter you have to assume that interest rates will never normalize in order for you to not acknowledge that we're headed for a major economic crisis because what happens if interest rates normalized well everything collapses just like people couldn't afford payments on their subprime mortgages when their teaser rates expired you know the US Treasury cannot afford to pay higher interest rates on the national debt when their teaser rate expires and it can expire very quickly sure and in response to China's announcement the Treasury bond market was initially down it managed to recoup most of its losses early morning losses but yields still edged higher on the day bond prices are lower and bond prices have been falling in yields rising now there's a nice steady trend if you look at the thirty-year we're just a 2.9 percent we were at 2.7 percent in late December on the 10-year we're now up to two point five five we were at like two point one in September of last year but in December we were about two two and a half an hour to five and a half so you know that's a meaningful increase but if you look at a chart we could have an explosive increase in interest rates which is going to be an enormous tax hike on the US economy on the US government which is much bigger than the tax cuts that the Republicans just passed I've been talking about this the impact the drain on the economy of rising interest rates I mean if falling interest rates were helping the economy wouldn't a rise in interest rates hurt the economy you better believe it also it's not just interest rates look at what's happening the oil prices I've been talking about that oil prices now hit a new high for the four years I think 6354 was the high earlier this morning I think we ran out about 63 30 but we took out the resistance I said there was some resistance says 60 to 75 and a close above that I think we could see a quick move up to $80 oil nobody really believes this bull market almost all the coverage I'm reading are about how these oil prices are unsustainable above 60 that the price is going to come down I don't think so I think we're now climbing the wall of worry and I think we're gonna start climbing it more quickly the dollar is headed down again the dollar sold off as a result of this China announcement it recouped some of his gains but still negative on the day we're still holding above a 90 to handle but we won't be at a 90 to handle for long particularly against the Chinese currency I mentioned in my earlier podcast I expect the US dollar to hit a new all-time record low this year against the Chinese UI we had the biggest drop in nine years last year and I think now the dollar is poised to fall to a record low and that would make sense right if the Chinese know their currency is going to be appreciating why would they want to buy US Treasuries it's a guaranteed loser I mean it's a guaranteed loser for everybody to buy US Treasuries but how do all the people who justify the Dow at 25,000 how do they do that they justify it by relating it to interest rates they say well the market is not overvalued if you compare it to the bond market yeah but the bond market is that are record overvaluation how can you say stocks aren't overvalued when they're compared to bonds when the bond market is a bubble because what you said is well if the bond bubble pops then the stock bubble is gonna pop - and that is exactly what we were staring at yet you have these warning signs just like we had in 2007 look I had been warning about the housing bubble and all the problems that the Fed was creating by inflating that bubble in 2002 in 2003 in 2004-2005 I saw it coming from a mile away and I was warning about it so often and for so long that by the time we got to 2007 right nobody believed me Oh Peter you've been saying this stuff for years but you know what happened in 2007 all the stuff started to happen and still nobody could get it right you had the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy of Bear Stearns you had a lot of these subprime lenders that were that were going bankrupt you had the whole subprime implosion yet in 2008 after all this stuff it happened early 2008 everybody was like nothing to worry about I was still getting laughed at you look at my CNBC or Fox appearances from 2008 after so much of what I had predicted had already come true and they're still making fun of me they're still laughing at me Oh Peter you don't know what you're talking about and I would point out all these things that had happened in 2007 and they would say and so what and nothing bad has happened right this all the subprime skeletons are out of the closet and nothing bad has happened you've been coming on these shows warning and warning and yes all these bad things about and nothing has happened the Dow is fine the economy is fine the problems are contained as a tiny problem and subprime but this is what these guys were saying this is how I feel now because so many of the things that I have been warning about right the problems we're gonna have in the bond market the problems we're gonna have in the dollar problems we're gonna have with inflation they're all just getting ready to get started this is the beginning so this to me in my mind is 2007 2007 is where everything I was saying for years got validated now of course we didn't have the collapse until 2008 of you know
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