원문 보기
i think i think you're right but i think we're not even close to that i just don't see where all of a sudden there are these writ large mass layoffs for example i would believe what you're saying if if the headline in the wall street journal said walmart lays off 10 000 people right that's not what's happening in in fact it's the exact opposite walmart's like well you know we seem to have record demand we're raising prices and every supplier will have to pay a gas tax and a supplier tax and deal with it so i just think that you're you're going to be right in the end i just think we're way too early in this process to get to that place where we did we're debating this i i don't see so chamath are you on board with the the yakmen trade basically you know ackman basically came out that tweet storm a couple of days ago basically saying that listen inflation is still the big problem not recession the economy is humming along there's plenty of jobs and we're gonna have a persistent problem with inflation i think he's kind of right and kind of wrong i think that you can have inflation and a recession at the same time this is what my point is i think we have been in a supply-side recession meaning the day of the pandemic it's not as if demand stopped it's not as if you and i david didn't want to go out or use doordash or take an uber or watch a movie in a movie theater we were not allowed right and so we found other ways in in order to fulfill our demand that's why shopify you know did so well on behalf of the merchants that they served that's why robin hood did so well that's why fortnite did so well right we found other places to spend money but what went away was the supply and those incentives didn't come back and they're still not back that's why prices keep going up this is the problem is the definition of a recession right chemotherapy problem is just that most people don't understand that you can have a supply side recession and a demand side recession they just manifest in different ways so well i think i think i think like i guess ackman is roughly right in some ways he's roughly not so right in some others i think that we have an issue where we are going to transfer the supply side issues that are driving inflation to average everyday consumers and their ability to buy things i still think that the average everyday consumers desire to buy things is what it was from before and on the margin is probably higher i do think at some point it will start to change when prices get high enough but i don't think we've reached that point of equilibrium yet and the reason is because companies like the walmarts of the world who see this demand on literally a real-time basis knows better than anybody else when and how much they can raise prices downstream into their supply chain so when you see something like this in the wall street journal i would just encourage us all to say they must see that demand is the same or better and so they're going to now push those price increases down to everybody else because now walmart says here is an opportunity for me to defend my earnings power and this is why i think we're in this first inning of this so i don't know whether ackman is right or wrong but i think we're in the early phases of a two-phase recession and i don't know what that looks like because i've never lived through one of those and i think in many ways it's the combination of the two and it was it was largely because of government failure government failure and how we reacted to the pandemic in hindsight saks was right all along we overreacted by shutting everything down we probably could have kept some supply online by understanding masking early on and then second we exacerbated with failed government policy because we gave everybody trillions and trillions of dollars and we entered the capital markets and perverted it with another seven or eight trillion more and by the way that has consequences well the consequences are still talking about giving stimulus now in order to um help people deal with so we are not we are not learning second you can't pour fire so if i lean on the fire if i had to basically put what we are all saying into a neat little bow i would say there needs to be a multi-phased economic correction one that corrects the supply that we took out of the market during the pandemic one that corrects for all the excess money and then one that corrects for demand that's a lot of stuff we have to do and so the more misguided government policy we have the farther away from finding that equilibrium point we're going to be the longer it's going to take the more damage it's going to be
Comments 0