저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 현 시점은 공급측 충격과 수요측 침체가 겹친 2단계 경기침체의 초기 국면이며, 실업 급증 등 본격적 침체는 아직 시작되지 않았다. 주제 1: 경기 판단 및 아크먼과의 견해 차이 아크먼은 인플레이션이 여전히 핵심 문제이고 경기는 견조하며 고용도 충분하다고 주장했다. 채머스는 아크먼이 부분적으로만 맞다고 보았다. 채머스는 인플레이션과 경기침체가 동시에 존재할 수 있다고 주장했다. 주제 2: 공급측 침체 주장 팬데믹 시기 수요가 사라진 것이 아니라 소비 방식이 온라인 등으로 옮겨갔을 뿐이라고 설명했다. 근거 사례로 Shopify, Robinhood, Fortnite의 성장을 들었다. 공급은 줄었고 그 공급 인센티브가 회복되지 않아 가격이 계속 오르고 있다고 진단했다. 주제 3: 수요 상황과 가격 전가 전망 평균 소비자의 구매 욕구는 과거와 같거나 한계적으로 더 높다고 보았다. 가격이 충분히 높아지면 수요가 변할 것이라 봤으나 아직 균형점에 도달하지 않았다고 판단했다. 월마트 같은 기업이 실시간 수요를 보고 공급망 하류로 가격 인상을 밀어내고 있다고 설명했다. 주제 4: 정책 실패 및 향후 전망 팬데믹 대응의 과잉 봉쇄와 조기 마스크 정책 미흡으로 공급이 줄었다고 평가했다. 막대한 재정 지원과 자산시장 개입으로 추가적인 과잉 유동성이 발생했다고 지적했다. 향후 공급 회복, 과잉 통화 조정, 수요 조정의 다단계 경기 조정이 필요하다고 보았다. 정책이 잘못될수록 균형점 도달이 늦어지고 피해가 커진다고 경고했다. 출연자 전망: 현재는 침체의 첫 단계이며 조정 기간이 길고 피해가 클 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
i think i think you're right but i think we're not even close to that i just don't see where all of a sudden there are these writ large mass layoffs for example i would believe what you're saying if if the headline in the wall street journal said walmart lays off 10 000 people right that's not what's happening in in fact it's the exact opposite walmart's like well you know we seem to have record demand we're raising prices and every supplier will have to pay a gas tax and a supplier tax and deal with it so i just think that you're you're going to be right in the end i just think we're way too early in this process to get to that place where we did we're debating this i i don't see so chamath are you on board with the the yakmen trade basically you know ackman basically came out that tweet storm a couple of days ago basically saying that listen inflation is still the big problem not recession the economy is humming along there's plenty of jobs and we're gonna have a persistent problem with inflation i think he's kind of right and kind of wrong i think that you can have inflation and a recession at the same time this is what my point is i think we have been in a supply-side recession meaning the day of the pandemic it's not as if demand stopped it's not as if you and i david didn't want to go out or use doordash or take an uber or watch a movie in a movie theater we were not allowed right and so we found other ways in in order to fulfill our demand that's why shopify you know did so well on behalf of the merchants that they served that's why robin hood did so well that's why fortnite did so well right we found other places to spend money but what went away was the supply and those incentives didn't come back and they're still not back that's why prices keep going up this is the problem is the definition of a recession right chemotherapy problem is just that most people don't understand that you can have a supply side recession and a demand side recession they just manifest in different ways so well i think i think i think like i guess ackman is roughly right in some ways he's roughly not so right in some others i think that we have an issue where we are going to transfer the supply side issues that are driving inflation to average everyday consumers and their ability to buy things i still think that the average everyday consumers desire to buy things is what it was from before and on the margin is probably higher i do think at some point it will start to change when prices get high enough but i don't think we've reached that point of equilibrium yet and the reason is because companies like the walmarts of the world who see this demand on literally a real-time basis knows better than anybody else when and how much they can raise prices downstream into their supply chain so when you see something like this in the wall street journal i would just encourage us all to say they must see that demand is the same or better and so they're going to now push those price increases down to everybody else because now walmart says here is an opportunity for me to defend my earnings power and this is why i think we're in this first inning of this so i don't know whether ackman is right or wrong but i think we're in the early phases of a two-phase recession and i don't know what that looks like because i've never lived through one of those and i think in many ways it's the combination of the two and it was it was largely because of government failure government failure and how we reacted to the pandemic in hindsight saks was right all along we overreacted by shutting everything down we probably could have kept some supply online by understanding masking early on and then second we exacerbated with failed government policy because we gave everybody trillions and trillions of dollars and we entered the capital markets and perverted it with another seven or eight trillion more and by the way that has consequences well the consequences are still talking about giving stimulus now in order to um help people deal with so we are not we are not learning second you can't pour fire so if i lean on the fire if i had to basically put what we are all saying into a neat little bow i would say there needs to be a multi-phased economic correction one that corrects the supply that we took out of the market during the pandemic one that corrects for all the excess money and then one that corrects for demand that's a lot of stuff we have to do and so the more misguided government policy we have the farther away from finding that equilibrium point we're going to be the longer it's going to take the more damage it's going to be
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