저자: ChamathPalihapitiya/DavidSacks등All-In팟캐스트출연진 · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 연준의 긴축 시작과 공급망 불안으로 경기침체 위험이 커졌지만, 과도한 매도 이후 실적 좋은 성장주에 대한 저가 매수 기회가 있다는 취지. 연준·금리: 2022년 2월 FOMC 이후 3월 금리인상 시작이 예상되며, 시장은 올해 25bp 인상 약 5회를 반영하는 것으로 해석함. 과거 금리인상 사이클 시작 후 주식시장은 대체로 상승했다는 역사적 주장 제기. 경기침체 위험: 파월의 '여유 공간(plenty of room)' 발언이 시장 급락을 촉발. 금리인상과 대차대조표 축소(약 9조 달러 자산 매각 가능성)가 동시에 유동성을 줄여 과잉 긴축→침체 위험이 과거보다 높다는 주장. 파월이 2018년처럼 과도하게 매파적일 수 있다고 지적. 글로벌 성장: 중국 금리 인하, 독일 GDP 전망 하향 등을 근거로 세계 성장 둔화를 언급. 주식·종목: 빌 애크먼의 넷플릭스 매수 및 2011년 TCV의 넷플릭스 투자 사례를 들어 주가 하락이 사업가치 훼손을 의미하지 않는다고 주장. 성장주 전반이 60% 하락했으나 일부 사업은 장기적으로 성장하며, 다수 적자 기업은 애초 공개시장 상장이 부적절했을 수 있다고 봄. 테슬라·마이크로소프트 실적 호조 언급. 공급망: 반도체 등 공급망 차질이 현재 경기의 실질 리스크이며, 기업들이 공급망 차질을 2022년 말~2023년 초 해소될 것으로 가이던스 제시했다는 근거 제시. 자동차 칩 부족으로 GM 전기차 인도 불가 사례 언급. 고용·소비: 실업률 3.5%, 임금 상승, 구인 1천만 건, 개인 저축 증가 등 긍정 지표 언급. 다만 노동참여율 저하 및 물가 상승이 임금 상승분을 상쇄할 수 있다고 봄. 금리 상승으로 주택 담보대출 비용이 늘어 주택가격 하락 가능성 언급. 리스크: 과잉 긴축에 따른 침체, 공급망 장기화, 우크라이나 전쟁 등 지정학 리스크 언급. 시장 심리가 극도로 부정적이어서 반등 가능성도 있다고 봄. 출연자 전망: 단기 변동성 지속 가능성을 인정하면서도 우량 성장주 저가 매수 관점 제시.
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Bill Ackman uh came over the top he's buying a ton of Netflix and Tesla just absolutely flipped to becoming a money printing machine uh and had a ridiculous quarter revenues up 53 to 53 billion up 71 year over year Q4 Revenue 17 billion 65 year over year and they increased their Deliverance by 71 and uh you know now you're all of a sudden to start to see some uh you know income coming into the company so flipping from money losing to break even to now printing a ton of money Microsoft had an absurd quarter uh their revenue hit 51.7 billion up 20 in the quarter 20 year over year pays for 200 billion dollars in Revenue in 2022 and their net income was also up 20 plus percent at 18.8 billion so the money printing machine in these companies is just extraordinary Tremont what are your thoughts I think you're you're you forgot a couple of key things which is that the fomc meeting happened this week and Powell basically said look we're going to start tightening in March I think the way that he said it you know all of these words tend to be so scrutinized and overanalyzed but the instead of figuring out what people thought I think their actions post the flomc are important which is that you know we effectively now started to price in about five rate hikes this year so probably five 25 Point rate hikes effectively that's what that's what the that's what the yield curve tells us if you take a big step back I just want to remind people like it's really hard to live through volatility right and we're in the phase of it now but typically these big drawdowns so like you know when stocks go down it actually precedes so it comes before the actual starting of a rate hike cycle and so if you go back to the you know from 1950 onwards today every time the government has started to raise rates or the Federal Reserve has started to raise rates the stock markets have actually rallied now why is that it's typically that they see through the end of the rate hike cycle and they start to price the business as if these rate hikes are done and to to rebase things and on average I think the stock markets go up between seven and eight percent so call it seven and a half eight and a half percent and so what's interesting to me is now we're finally starting the process of these hikes and the real question is going to be how data dependent do these guys get and what I mean by that is so you know we talked about this before but you know China cut rates this past weekend actually Germany decreased their GDP forecast and so you're starting to see two huge countries already say hey wait a minute we need to be you know we need to be more realistic about what long-term growth looks like here it's inconceivable in my mind that those countries are slowing down and we won't and so I think what happens in these other huge GDP drivers of world GDP will affect us and so you know Saks and I have said this before but the marginal risk will be that we over correct and actually create a recession that doesn't need to be one so we slam on the brakes too hard and another way of saying it is so the rain hikes are the market is a leading indicator of what's going to happen post the rate hikes we had a nice relief rally going until I think some of the words that pal used was that there was plenty of rooms yeah meaning that because unemployment's at three and a half percent that you know we're at full employment and that means that the FED can you know has this dual mission of keeping inflation low and you know keeping Employment High so if employment is high then they've got more room to raise rate anyway it was that language around the plenty of room that freaked markets out and it triggered a huge sell-off I think to tomorrow's point I don't see how you could have this much wealth destroyed so quickly and have it not impact the real economy there's a lot of people out there who feel a lot poorer because their portfolios have gotten slashed in value I mean anybody without tightening they'll clench not spend as much money on a vacation not buy a TV or a car so these wait lists for cars might get you know become sales the luxury markets of the economy the optional purchases uh start to really slow down and so I think that the risk of recession now is much higher than it was even a month ago now you know it's going to be hard to know so so basically I think what we're saying is it's gonna be very hard for the FED to engineer a soft Landing here where we don't trigger a recession uh in the process of stopping inflation and um look will judge Powell's performance you know at the end of this you know we're not going to know I think it's but I but I think that he's turned out to be much more hawkish in his statements than markets were expecting again in 2018 you know he was probably overly hawkish and he actually created effectively a little mini recession we we didn't pay attention enough to it because you know Trump made it impossible to see the signal from the noise but it did happen and it was Powell being a little too trigger happy and so you know we have to remember that you know the FED has nine trillion dollars of assets on their balance sheet and so you know if they start to take nine trillion dollars of cash out of the system by selling these assets into the market right you're taking the money out right because you're getting money back that's going to have an enormous huge impact as well so if you think about a question what happens one second let me finish please so you know so when you have these two things happening at the same time you have a potential rate hike cycle which makes the the cost of a used car more expensive the cost of your credit card balance is more expensive the obligations you have to pay just become naturally more expensive you feel poorer so you spend less and then separately in the financial markets you actually take liquidity out of the system um and so people value you know uh liquidity more it becomes it becomes worth more you you value current cash more I mean we're putting ourselves in a really delicate position so he's got a a delicate balancing actor he is definitely on a tightrope so if we pull nine trillion out we've been talking about this deficit if he starts selling all of those assets does that mean on the United States balance sheet that will reduce our national debt no I mean where does the money go we're getting nine trillion of cash right you sell an asset you get cash for it right and so it pulls money out of the economy it created liquidity when they were buying assets right when they're buying this debt it would put push money out if they're selling the debt it pulls money back in what happens to those dollars is my point like around in the United States the dollar the dollar stays in the U.S USA's bank account but the obligation the note exists in some Financial intermediary that holds it clearly Powell does not want to be remembered as the FED chief that let inflation slip the leash right I mean he he's gotten religion now around the idea that this inflation is not transitory which was his position for months I think that now bit him and the risk is potentially an over correction but he's not going to let inflation then he'll be the first fed Governor to have caused two recessions I think it's like a serious risk and by the way these market levels that we're at right now I mean look 60 correction in growth stocks okay but this is with that's still in a good economy in peacetime conditions and now we have a risk of recession and War so you know there's still room for you know a lot more negative news here is kind of my point and um but look sentiment's also very negative so when sentiment is this negative there's also the potential for markets to quickly recover but the sentiment is there for the wrong reasons I think I don't think people are thinking recession I think people are thinking my gosh these rate increases my gosh I can't own these high growth stocks anymore and none of those things are true those are just perceptions that get Amplified by one's emotions when you're getting punched in the face which is what happens when you wake up every day in your portfolio by the way five or six percent it generates incredible opportunity the uh you know the idea that markets bucket quote-unquote growth stocks together I think um kind of obfuscates an important point which is that some of the businesses in that category are real businesses that are going to succeed over the long run and some of them are speculative and are likely to fail over the short run and um you know as you saw Netflix sell off Bill Ackman very smart came in and bought a bunch of the stock I don't know if you guys remember this but in 2011 tcv which is traditionally a private Equity investor at the time and there wasn't a lot of crossover and public market stuff happening they were a private investor in um Netflix stock tanked from um I think it was around 220 a share down to 70 bucks a share in a couple of months and tcv did a 200 million dollar pipe into Netflix um and everyone was like oh my God what are they doing it's incredible and by the way that was on an adjusted basis that's ten dollars a share in today's share price so that that that 200 million dollar investment that they made went up 60x you know at the peak of Netflix a few weeks ago and so you know seeing Bill Ackman come in and underwrite Netflix again and and make a big investment at its current market price so Jay Hogue I think it really highlights that they're they're just because the market price is down doesn't mean that a business isn't fundamentally valuable and gonna grow and gonna generate significant returns over time as a as an operating business and that distinction starts to present significant opportunities in a market condition like this and the businesses we all talk about generally growth stocks are down 60 but maybe most of them shouldn't have even been public companies in the first place maybe they should have been speculative private Investments where more than two-thirds of them were likely to fail and they shouldn't be failing as public companies and the few that are getting damaged and hit with this Market sentiment shift can be picked up cheap and there's a lot of opportunity and so I wouldn't view the market condition to be necessarily reflective again of the economy or the condition of businesses in general jayhog was a partner at tcv he's the founder of tcv that did that deal and he's also the one that participated and led the billion dollar are round into Peloton before they whiffed earnings and got and got decapitated but he's an incredible investor that trade is probably one of the best trades of all time so let's look in the good news column wages way up earnings way up 10 million job openings in the United States pretty close to record low unemployment and the pandemic ending ending and people having record Savings in their bank accounts and personal balance sheets so how does all that good news the pandemic hasn't ended it's ending for people I think it's over for people I'll tell you the thing I'm most concerned about there's a reverberation that that persists in Supply chains I don't know how much Hardware lab biotech consumer goods businesses you guys are involved in I'm involved in a number of them every single one of them are crippled in some way right now by supply chain issues I mean I'm talking about like businesses that have been operating at steady state for many many years when do those get worked out we don't know and everyone's getting surprised and hit upside the head every week with some new supply chain shortage whether it's some chemical you need for some lab equipment or you know the the delivery of some big piece of equipment or even plastic bottles that we use it's to kind of fill up our beverages that we ship that's a pretty sizable business we've never had supply chain disruption like we're seeing right now I'd like to bleep out the name of that company yeah but it but it's it's like it's a bleep this out but it's a significantly sized business that um has never had supply chain issues it's all U.S based but some of the suppliers of the suppliers have had complete failure and delivery and all of a sudden it's now reverberating through the supply chain you guys saw that GM didn't deliver a single friggin electric vehicle last quarter because they couldn't actually get the chips that they needed to make cars so the real risk to the economy in my opinion right now is when and how we're going to work our way through these supply chain issues and it is so complex and there's a myriad of problems and it is a global problem that it's really unclear how this is going to play out over the next six months and what will happen is this quarter next quarter businesses that you didn't realize and didn't expect are going to get hit with supply chain problems are suddenly going to say guess what our revenue is off by 20 30 percent because we couldn't sell this product because and half our shelves are empty because product didn't show up or whatever the The Narrative might be all right I think it's a really I think it's a great point because you don't solve these supply chain issues with rate hikes right it's like nothing to do with that nothing to do with it so the rate hike slowed the economy that's why I'm way more worried about this than rate hikes right what does clean it up is capitalism um and the reason I'm less worried is when you actually talk to the companies that that are spending enormous amounts of money on capex they've actually guided to the fact that by the end of this year and the beginning of next year most of these things will be worked out that's indigestional I think I think we're I think we're dealing with a you know six to nine month issue of having turned things off and now are now rapidly trying to turn things back on and we can't necessarily get that timing right but I do think it'll work itself out faster than people expect personally that's what I think because the cost of Apple and Tesla specifically guiding to that is too enormous you're talking about you know collectively almost 4 trillion of market cap so they're not going to get something like this wrong and they were pretty clear in the last few days that that this will be done by 2023 early 2023 sax or chamoth I just listed all the good news to counter you know the the slog and the and the bad news how do you account for record low unemployment record number of jobs record wages going up massive cash on people's personal balance sheet massive amounts of sideline cash massive amounts of venture funds is being raised that have to be deployed in the next five years all that good news where does that on this balance sheet of good versus bad you know work out for your sex well the the negatives are that yes the unemployment rate is very low but a lot of people have dropped out of the labor force of the labor participation rate is still quite low so because of well because I think a lot of people dropped out because of covet you know everyone wants a remote and um I think you know they got these to me checks and I think a lot of people got used to not working you know maybe maybe you had a household with two people used to work and now only one of them is working you know maybe they move to a cheaper part of the country so I mean maybe it's a good thing right but a lot of people dropped out of the the labor force and they haven't come back and so that's the negative and then you know the fact that wages are going up is good but we don't know how much that's inflation right so you know those would be the negatives but there was a report that inventory levels did rise in Q4 and so the supply chain issues do seem to be ameliorating to somebody totally I was looking at cars and now a lot of the people who had you know there's no way to get this car now they're like hey we got a couple of these cars available if you want them and then if you look at the housing inventory it does seem that maybe that's taking a pause too and people couldn't find houses and now maybe even though still a housing crisis maybe there's more available or they're staying on the market a little bit longer yeah I mean it's I think it's pretty clear the economic activity is slowing um and again things like rate increases they uh it increases the the cost of a mortgage right so that could affect house prices
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