저자: CoachEverest · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 퍼싱스퀘어가 2022년 4월 넷플릭스 보유 지분 전량을 매도한 서한을 분석한 영상이다. 한 줄 결론: 투자 논리가 바뀌면 손절하고 빠르게 대응하라는 교훈을 전달한다. 매도 배경: 넷플릭스가 구독자 성장 둔화를 겪자 비밀번호 공유 계정 유료화와 광고 요금제 도입을 발표했다. 애크먼은 이 변화의 영향(장기 구독자 성장, 매출, 영업이익률, 자본집약도)을 예측하기 어렵다고 판단했다. 손실 및 포트폴리오 영향: 이번 손실로 퍼싱스퀘어 펀드의 연초 대비 수익률이 4%포인트 낮아졌고, 매도 시점 기준 연초 대비 약 2% 수익이다. 진행자 해석: 애크먼이 2월에 한꺼번에 전액 매수했다가 한 분기 만에 약 4억 달러 손실을 확정한 것은 문제라고 평가한다. 다만 포트폴리오 집중 구조상 예측 가능성을 중시한 판단이라는 점은 이해한다고 덧붙인다. 교훈: 핵심 보유 종목의 투자 논리가 훼손되면 신속히 손절해야 한다. 점진적 분할매수가 전액 일괄매수보다 리스크 관리에 유리하다. 애크먼은 과거 치폴레 매수(2016년 약 430달러, 이후 약 1,615달러)로 성공 사례도 갖고 있다. 대상 자산 전망: 넷플릭스 외 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다. 광고 수익 도입은 시간이 걸린다는 점만 언급되었다. 결론: 애크먼의 실수와 손절 판단을 통해 투자 원칙과 리스크 관리의 중요성을 강조한 영상이다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone coach everest here back to another video for today so obviously the hot topic of this week was netflix and now it's suddenly bill ackman because if you remember back in february he announced well personally square holdings announced that they bought a lot of shares of netflix they were all in on streaming they believed in management and the future of the company this week we had netflix earnings i did a video yesterday top right corner if you haven't watched it yesterday evening after market closed suddenly announced that well they sold all their position in netflix so they were gonna have a look at that in a bit but the main point of this video is basically looking at his mistakes and how we can implement that in our investment journey because it might not be such a bad thing to do when you see something change when you're not convinced anymore the thesis might change for you just sell cut your losses and move on so we're going to have a look at the whole letter and talk about what's written there so it starts off today we sold our investment in netflix which we purchased earlier this year the loss on our investment reduced the pershing square funds year-to-date returns by four percentage points reflecting this loss as of today's close the pershing square fund are done approximately two percent year to date while we have a high regard for netflix management and a remarkable company they have built in light of the enormous operating leverage inherited in the company's business model changes in the company's future subscriber growth can have an outsize impact on our estimate of intrinsic value in our original analysis we viewed this operating leverage favorably due to our long-term growth expectations for the company yesterday in response to continue disappointing customers subscriber growth netflix announced that it would modify its subscription-only model to be more aggressive in going after non-paying customers when he talks about the non-paying customers talks about those accounts that are sharing passwords so the plus 100 million households that share other households accounts and to incorporate advertising as an approach that management estimates would take one to two years to implement now with regards to advertising obviously it's going to take a while because this is something completely new for netflix not for the streaming industry but for the company to start adding an advertising side of the business obviously it's going to take a while until it gets going so i understand why even though the seminar announced that they're going to do it it just wants to stay on the sidelines because again probably there's nothing going to happen with netflix in the coming year or so but when advertising does come i do think it's going to be a positive catalyst for the company he continued while we believe these business model changes are sensible it is extremely difficult to predict their impact on the company's long-term subscriber growth future revenues operating margins and capital intensity which makes which makes total sense that's why i said he prefers to be on the sidelines right now but then again why invest so much at once in february to only sell it or one quarter later for a 400 million dollar loss anyways continues we require a high degree of predictability in the businesses in which we invest due to the highly concentrated nature of our portfolio while netflix business is fundamentally simple to understand in light of recent events we have lost confidence in our ability to predict the company's future prospects with a sufficient degree of certainty based on management track record we should not be surprised to see netflix continue to be a highly successful company and an excellent investment from its current market value that said we believe the dispersion of outcomes has widened to a sufficiently large extent that is challenging for the company to meet our requirements for a core holding and he ends here one of our learnings from past mistakes is to act promptly when we discover new information about an investment that is inconsistent with our original thesis this is why we did so here and this is something i'm going to touch on in a bit we are in the midst of an opportunity rich environment for persian square due to the dramatic shift in federal reserve policy the highly inflationary environment geopolitical uncertainty and the resulting high degree of security price volatility we therefore expect to find good use for the netflix proceeds please feel free to contact the investors relation team blah blah blah so i want to touch on one of the last points that they mentioned there and the fact that it's okay if your original thesis changes if you don't feel comfortable anymore with your investment especially if it's a core investment then it's okay to act promptly act fast because if you don't act fast then you might be a potential future bag holder and you're down i don't know 50 60 70 or so now it's obviously down considerably as well because of everything that's happening around the world the market etc and in this case netflix business but to take this lesson and apply to your own investment journey is very very important if you have a core holding and first of all the mistake here was also that they went all in just like that which is something i don't like to do i like to build up my position but since obviously my portfolio and his portfolio are completely different but going all in and building your position up are two different things if you build up your position over time and over time the thesis changes then your heat won't be that big but if you already build out your full position and suddenly the thesis has changed completely for you like you said they're not able to predict the future which is a problem in his case not really a problem for many retail investors because well we have time we don't have to pay clients etc so it's important to act promptly you don't want to be holding the bag let's say you bought something at a hundred dollars you were very confident suddenly a couple of quarters later it's just down 20 but suddenly you see the thesis is trying is starting to change you do not sell even though you don't feel comfortable a couple of courses later you're done 60 if you would have acted promptly you would have been down only 20 and probably invested in something better or just held cash to build up the other positions out there now to end to conclude what they did is completely normal again bilakman he bought chipotle stock back in 2016 i believe it was around 430 or so everybody laughed at him now it's around 1 615 so pretty good investment they have some other i believe starbucks is in their portfolio as well the list will be on the screen so overall take the lessons from him he's a good investor there are some great things you can learn from him obviously they still make mistakes even though they're billionaires and have years of experience so that would be it for this video obviously do let me know down in the comments below if you hold any of acma's or persian squares holding shares let me know down in comments below what you did with your netflix stock did you buy did you sell all in the comments below and if you enjoy this type of videos leave it a thumbs up if you haven't subscribed as always guys take care stay safe and see you all in the next video bye
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