저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표 전 점검 영상. 엔비디아는 포트폴리오 1순위 종목이며 장기 보유 의지 명확. 실적 기대치(EPS 1.02달러, 매출 63.4억달러 수준)를 상회하는지, 반도체 공급 부족 영향, 데이터센터·게이밍 성장세, 서비스형 소프트웨어 및 암(ARM) 인수 이슈를 점검할 것이라고 밝힘. 주가가 140~150달러대로 떨어지면 큰 비중 진입을 고려할 수 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
on today's episode we are going to take a quick look at nvidia they are reporting earnings tomorrow so on today's episode i want to take a quick look at what are some of the things i'm keeping my eyes out for if you guys are not familiar nvidia is my number one position in my portfolio and this is a tier one stock for me my top five positions in my portfolio make up roughly forty percent of my total account and four out of those five have already reported earnings nvidia's the only one and luckily right now they have all done super great after earnings let's hope nvidia makes it a five out of five on my tier one stocks and all doing great after earnings don't forget to hit the subscribe button and let's get started for those not familiar my name is jose naharo i am a stock market investor but i do have a master's degree in electrical engineering so i'm hugely hugely focused on semiconductor companies nvidia right now as i am recording this episode is down about 3.03 and we all know our portfolios are could be doing a little bit better right now the overall volatility in the market with so much news about delta variants uh with kind of slowed down by the fed uh which just overall these geopolitic political issues happening right now are really affecting stock prices at the end of the day nvidia is still a long-term hold and no matter with this volatility i have no intentions of selling anytime soon this is a position that i believe will stay my number one position for multiple years but if we take a look from its 52-week high the stock is down roughly about 6.5 i want to say in the past three months since their last earnings there has been a lot of news right this company did have an nvidia they had a stock split which kind of really kind of got the stock excited even though no fundamental changes has happened a second thing is we're getting closer to their arm acquisition to me at the end of the day this arm acquisition there's so much news behind it that me personally i don't believe it's going to happen and at the same time i don't believe nvidia needs it so this arm acquisition if nvidia gets it it would be amazing if it doesn't get it for me as a long-term investor i couldn't it wouldn't really hurt my overall thesis i think nvidia will do perfectly fine with or without this arm acquisition but i do believe that it's going to continue to add some volatility into the market and something investors hopefully they give us some form of insight or some form of update during these upcoming earnings the third thing i do want to say is we are kind of seeing the semiconductor shorter still impacting the company which is really driving uh these companies to continue continue to produce and kind of see these crazy revenue growth uh so in video right now i want to say that's something else really affecting the stock price i want to see what kind of guidance they give for the upcoming quarter what kind of guidance do they see in the ship shortage and where is it really impacting is it going to continue to impact their graphics card is it going to impact some other segments like the automobile segment or other segments so i really want to take a listen to what nvidia says for their semiconductor shortage and how it's affecting the company they are expected to report about a dollar and two cents on earnings per share and revenue of about 6.34 billion dollars and these are the numbers analysts have projected this is what investors are going to be looking for so the first thing is we want to make sure these are beaten to me at the end of the day i could really care less of what analysts project i just want to make sure the company is still growing i still want to make sure they are still going in the direction they expect to go obviously beating is great and will do good things for the short-term volatility of the stock price but for the fundamentals right like a company is not meant it's not broken or made in one quarter there's multiple quarters and even a year before a company can really show hey if this is a true powerhouse or this is a company that's failing at the moment next i also want to see of what they kind of announced with this super base command platform but before we go there guys let's take a quick listen to today's sponsor a great reason why i'm able to provide so much content to you guys for free l th ad so i do believe one of the great things about nvidia right now is at the moment nvidia is pretty much just seen as a hardware company they're pretty much just seen as a graphics card company but they are so much more they are becoming more of also a software company and becoming more of a reoccurring hardware company the first one of the biggest movements i think is on august 2nd of 2021 they announced this super base command platform where enterprises are able to kind of rent out super computers to some extent over the cloud uh and kind of use those servers instead of these enterprises going out to buy um to buy some of these super computers buying a super computer can be super super expensive get it super computer super regardless right uh so this is um starting at 90 000 a month and for me i've worked in some of these big enterprises companies and these big engineering firms that they wouldn't bet and i kind of paying this type of money 90 000 a month starting a starting point for multiple months instead of purchasing and kind of having their own super computers so i want to see what kind of growth they're kind of doing in these reoccurring software subscription services and how is that affecting the company at the same time right we take a quick look this company most of its revenue comes from gaming and data center gaming and data center i want to say make up close to over 80 maybe even more than 80 of this company's total revenue so i want to make sure we're still are we still seeing that growth in gaming are we still seeing that growth in data center i know right now we are seeing more places open back up uh we are seeing a little bit less screen time so has that impacted at any uh has that impacted at all the gaming segment or the data center segment in my opinion i'm going to say no because even though the gaming segment might have seen a bit of a decrease we're still seeing a lot of these gaming companies produce a lot of better numbers compared to the same time last year even compared to a quarter ago i just did a video on c limited i just did a video on roblox quarter over quarter and year over year are still growing at crazy levels those are gaming companies there's still a huge shortage of graphics cards in the gaming department i still can't even pick up an rtx 3000 series right now so i do believe the gaming market is still going to be growing the data center i want to say might not be growing as fast i would be very very excited if that data center we can see from a quarter ago it only grew about 100 million and we that's growth has kind of slowed down the past three quarters we can look at here i would be very bullish it would be very very bullish the data centers took a huge huge growth for me i'm not expecting much of a growth i'm pretty much expecting a slow climb up the other segments aren't growing at crazy levels i do believe the oem and others this is where some of their software products are in i would love to see how that's growing especially as this company continues to evolve new software as a service products we're seeing kind of them hitting i want to say the morpheus that is hitting the cyber security they also have the omniverse which is hitting like the visualization they also have a lot of pre-trained model softwares that are saving stuff like driving simulations and other types of moderation of artificial intelligence training platforms so i do want to see how that's also growing i don't think it's going to be a huge impact i don't think this software as a service that nvidia is kind of providing is going to make a big impact anytime soon but it's something that will be growing over over time over quarters also here in oem and others you have the chips kind of made for the crypto mining i also want to see how crypto mining is growing right is that kind of slowing down is that growing because as a reason as in the recent quarter nvidia started to create their own graphics cards for crypto miners and they put it under this section that's why we see a huge major growth there another thing i want to mention is this company is not only inside the graphics cards anymore they are deciding cpus for example the nvidia grays and this is expected to start sampling in 2022 and shipping in 2023 i just want to make sure due to ship shortage due to everything else these timelines haven't shifted even though it's still a few times it's still a time frame from now i want to make sure they're not shifting the nvidia grades sampling 2022 shipping 2023 so those are the main things i am going to be taking a look at for nvidia all right so now let me share my overall thoughts so nvidia even right now i do believe it's gonna be very volatile with everything happening in the market let's say worst case scenario stock price drops big if the stock price drops big it's i don't believe i would sell unless something heavily unless something crazy crazy changes fundamentally for the business i don't think that would happen right a company is not made or broken in one quarter i am a long-term investor and nvidia i believe has huge huge potential but if this company takes a nice dive i would say it depends on the price point it's already my number one position so it would really have to fall down a lot for me to really big enter in a big position i believe that price point would be somewhere in the 140s 150s if we don't see anywhere within those levels that's fine i have no intentions of buying right now because my position is pretty big at the same time let's say i did not have a position in nvidia right now i do believe it's a bit overextended but i do believe that sometimes getting some skin in the game especially if i have free trading and i have fractional investing i'm getting some skin in the game isn't the best isn't the worst idea again skin in the game is just a small position to kind of just be able to watch this company over time so those are my overall thoughts on the companies i hope you guys enjoy and we'll definitely do a video on earnings tomorrow so take care have a good day and see you next time
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