저자: SimonTheTrader · 외국인
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비트코인은 강세를 유지하며 1,800만 달러 부근 지지 확인 시 2만 달러 재돌파 가능성이 높다고 봄. 비트코인 기술적 분석: 주봉 기준 18k~20k 구간 횡보 후 상방 돌파 전망. 선물 시장 갭(약 17.7k)은 하락 시 목표가 될 수 있으나 강세 시나리오에 무게. 비트코인 도미넌스: 62.7% 라인이 핵심 지지선. 이 선을 유지하는 동안 알트코인 시즌은 지연될 것으로 봄. 이더리움: 20주 이평선 위에서 횡보 중이며 돌파 시 단기 상승 기대. 개인 목표가는 1개월~2개월 내 1,000달러. 진행자 포지션: 비트코인 대부분 보유 유지, 20주 이평선 부근까지 하락하면 추가 매수 의향. 20주 이평선은 주당 약 400달러씩 상승 전망, 1월 중순~말 2만 달러 재테스트 가능성 언급. XRP: 382% 피보나치 부근 지지 확인 중. 0.618 되돌림 부근을 좋은 매수 구간으로 봄. 1달러 돌파 시 큰 상승 가능성 언급. 단, 당분간은 비트코인 보유 유지하며 XRP/BTC 비율 관찰 권장. 뉴스: 마이클 세일러의 6억 5천만 달러 추가 비트코인 매입 자금 조달, 매스뮤추얼 1억 달러 비트코인 투자, 레이 달리오의 비트코인 금 대체자산 평가 변화 소식을 긍정적으로 해석. 기관 자금 유입이 가격 상승 압력이 될 것으로 전망. 리스크: 비트코인 상승 확률 60~70%, 단기 횡보 가능성 존재. 투자 권유 아님을 명시.
다듬은 글
hey guys what's going on it's Simon here from get into crypto welcome back to a Bitcoin update today we're going to be looking at the Bitcoin price also going to take a look at a couple of altcoins including ethereum and xrp and we're going to look at a few new stories as well on bitcoin um so before we start I just wanted to say if you do like the content then please please do help support the channel by subscribing and liking this video and also if you've got any feedback at all if there's any uh particular altcoins you're really interested in and would like me to cover then please feel free to comment and um let me know and I'm happy to obviously cover um whatever coins you're into going forward right with that said let's get into it so Bitcoin is still looking fairly strong we have been up at this uh level for some time now sort of in between sort of mainly 18 and K uh we've got a a little bit of a hanging man here but um what can I say I mean I mean every time Bitcoin looks like it's going to come down lower and I mean sort of come back down towards 16 and maybe sub6 keeps on getting bid back up uh a couple of days ago if we just go to the daily chart I was I was kind of looking at this and thinking to myself look we we might now start to come down a bit further obviously just over on the um Futures Market Market we can see that we do have this open Gap here we can see it a little bit easier on on the 4 Hour it's coming down to to around about 177,000 and I was thinking to myself look that's surely going to be a target for the price to to come down and close um and then potentially may maybe follow through um sort of trap trap a few um sort of stops people trying to play the play The Open Gap um and then maybe sort of sort of jump back up so so I was personally looking for round about 16s but yeah we we H we haven't got much below 18K and obviously today we're now starting to push higher back towards um our all-time highs so yeah Bitcoin Bitcoin looking looking very strong right now um we'll just go over to bitcoin dominance as well because we've been looking at Bitcoin dominance on on a weekly chart and we've been saying that look Bitcoin dominance is within this Channel and potentially are we going to see uh altcoins have a have a bit of a run and see this alt season but as things stand at the moment whilst we're still above this um I've got it here at 72 so sorry 62.7 th This Is My Line in the Sand as far as we go on a weekly close for Bitcoin dominance so whil we remain here it looks like the um altcoin season is going to have to wait so um Bitcoin dominance kind of spoiling the party for a lot of altcoin holders um and it could be that we do come up and retest this uh top trend line channel channel line um yeah really yeah I really don't know which way this one's going to go it is uh it's fairly uncertain at the moment but um yeah we've seen we've seen a little bit of selling pressure coming today on the altcoins and like we said before if if if Bitcoin does start to consolidate and start to move sideways then I do expect altcoins to to pick up obviously at the moment Bitcoin is is is still rather volatile still sort of moving around a fair bit but um yeah I would have thought that altcoins should um start to pick up shortly if Bitcoin continues to move sideways and we were also looking at the uh ethereum Bitcoin chart as well as a little bit of a precursor to any move so we can see we're looking at pretty much an inverse of the Bitcoin dominance chart here with a the in Bitcoin and uh we seem to be stuck right now between the 20 we and and the 21 we Mas so um EMA that is on the 21 week so yeah let's see if bit uh ethereum can um make a push up to the upside it's obviously performing quite nicely today uh be interesting to see how we close the week obviously closing here we're looking at a little bit of a hammer here so um if we we see some follow through to the upside get back Above This 20 week ma um then then we could start to um start to move obviously ethereum's kind of held it here we we we we've jumped up we had the Tom Dem Mar reversal it's got It's Gone from one td9 to the other td9 um so now we're looking for the uh for the next candle which will be a weekly four to obviously get above the weekly three and that could then set us up for for a move higher and uh we talked about this before how we we were seeing this sort of Tom de Mark 9 at the uh 382 FIB as providing a little bit of resistance for ethereum but as as a USD pair but let's see what we can do here um it could be that we do come back down and sort of test these uh 20 we M but yeah let's let's see let's see um ether ethereum is looking quite quite good to me quite good I mean I mean if we can push up a bit further ethereum really could be Off to the Races and I've said before I'm I'm targeting like $1,000 uh for for one ethereum um kind of over over the next month or two so uh yeah remain remains to be seen really um but I but I would have thought with these conditions and obviously Bitcoin consolidating at a level which is kind of well above its 20 week ma then then I I do expect altcoins to start to pick up shortly and I think just a just a little bit of a word for for those people that are maybe thinking look I'm waiting for this Bitcoin pull back until on buying I mean it's not guaranteed I mean I mean we have said that we would expect Bitcoin at some point to come down and T Test this 20 week ma but that is not guaranteed at all and um it could be that that we just go sideways or that we pop through 20,000 we come back retest so yeah I mean it's not Financial advice but I just think for me anyway I'm keeping the majority of my Bitcoin position right now long I'm not interested in selling anymore and uh obviously looking to to to put back into Bitcoin on any sort of move back down to this 20we ma but you need to realize that obviously the these Mas are going to be moving up like fairly quickly I mean I'm expecting these these Mas to move up around about $400 every uh week so yeah give it give it uh so for example um like another five weeks I'd expect these Mas to be up at like ran about the 16k level just below um and obviously that would pretty much coincide I think in in terms of like having a time Target until like the middle middle of January end of January and uh we might then see another proper retest a stronger retest of 20,000 if we don't break out sooner so that's how I'm that's how I'm seeing Bitcoin myself right now and another one I wanted to cover was xrp so obviously xrp's had this uh airdrop it's had its um I believe it's it's it's flare and Spark so I can't quite remember which way around is the token and which one's the um which one's the network but anyways so the snapshot I believe was uh yesterday um s sort of almost o overnight not not last night but the night before so we have seen this selling pressure from yesterday come to xrp uh but we seem to be finding a little bit of support here and I've kind of said before that for me personally I would be looking for xrp to make its way um back down to either this uh sort of 50% retracement or preferably I I think a really great buy would be down at the 618 um to get back in with with the majority of what I've scaled out myself going up here but we are at quite an interesting level here we are at this 382 fib and also we got some prior support if we just look back to 2019 middle of 2019 um and we also round about where we where we got supported as well back in April of 2018 so we we are at quite a key level here you could you could easily um in fact I will do it you could easily draw a horizontal one here at um just move this out of the way um trying to capture capture those highs from 2019 so you could easily draw a horizontal here and that's pretty much that's pretty much exactly what we come down to so yeah this is quite a key level to hold for xrp I think if xrp can hold this then then we might see some more upside and of course a lot of people will be uh sort of targeting up to around $1 which we haven't seen since 2008 so that would be that would be quite a um sort of major level for xrp to get to um and obviously if it can capture that then we all know when xrp does take off it really does start to moon and just looking at the Bitcoin price uh say x BTC would were um by no means out of the woods but obviously you can just see how significant this move is and yeah I mean we're above we're above its um 20 week ma against uh Bitcoin which is encouraging so if it can hold this then I think with Bitcoin looking to consolidate and then push above 20,000 early next year then I would expect xrp at some point to get a big move again and obviously we all saw what happened at the start of 2018 we also saw that up until that point xrp actually did fall down um quite significantly against Bitcoin so of course there is an argument here that maybe you should be looking to stay on the sidelines at the moment um when it comes to xrp keep your capital in BTC and then uh once BTC has taken off it's got to alltime highs um then obviously play the play the xrp BTC ratio so I think for that reason I'm not in a rush to start swapping my BTC for xrp right now but over the next sort of few few months um especially if it comes down on the Bitcoin um valuation then it could be could be a nice place to get into and yeah as far as as far as crypto's going that's that's kind of just about it what I what I really wanted to cover um ample Force making some nice games today um what else have we got up so most most altcoins are are slightly up against Bitcoin um which is obviously encouraging if you're an altcoin holder uh but like I said at the start of the video If there are specific altcoins that you really want to see then um feel free to comment in the comment section and I'll try and cover those on the next video so yeah um just to summarize bit Bitcoin looking really strong and certainly if we close the week here then you know provided we stay above these lows um at at now of this week I.E um the lows of around just just just below 18,000 then bitcoin's looking good bitcoin's looking strong uh I'd say probability wise I'd say about 60 70% I'm expecting some sideways colid consolidation um but I would say a move up back up towards 20K or maybe slightly through 20K um is definitely on the cards especially after this weekend and and seeing things get bought up obviously we got the weekly close tonight and then it will be um Monday when the big players the the institutions get back to their desks and we'll see what direction they want to take this over the next week so I was also going to cover a little bit of uh crypto news as well just just a wrap up so uh Michael sailor Mr Mr Bitcoin now in the institutional world he has uh completed a650 million pound sorry $650 million raise to buy more Bitcoin so this is uh well I don't need to tell you whether this is um bullish or not but uh he he is becoming quite the uh sort Bitcoin Champion when it comes to institutions uh I don't know if any of you have heard him speak some of his interviews have been fantastic in my opinion uh I really liked the one he did with uh Anthony Pompano so it was on the pump podcast where he talked about getting into Bitcoin and how he had to convince the board to to start to get on board and uh sort buy into the idea how we how we gave them all a little bit of homework and stuff so I I think that's a fantastic one if you haven't already seen it it's it's um Michael sailor's interview with Anthony Pompano I think the other one um he's he's been talking with Ral Paul as well uh I got a link the other day about one with with binance so yeah definitely definitely sort of check them out he he makes a really good case for Bitcoin and um certainly he's one of the more bullish people in the space now and uh yeah it's it's great to see it is great to see I I think his his words are obviously going to have a lot of impact and uh a lot of weight certainly on the institutional side and it's really interesting because the next story I wanted to pick up on was this um Mass Mutual investing 100 million into Bitcoin so I think that I think the key thing here is this is a really wellestablished Insurance Company 69 years old uh you know the the these are not um you know companies that are just going to buy an asset and then get out of it like a few months later or a year later um they're not getting into Bitcoin today trade they're looking to obviously investing Bitcoin for the Long Haul and as more institutional money comes into the space of course that Bitcoin is going to get bought up it's going to get moved it's going to get put on a balance sheet and it's effectively going to be locked away so all of this is taking more Supply off the market and obviously it is this Supply shock it is this institutional appetite um to to gobble up all the new Bitcoin which is now putting all of this upwards pressure on the Bitcoin price and of course um this is this is only giving uh Bitcoin more attention obviously not only from a re retail perspective but obviously in terms of an Institutional perspective and just think in terms of in terms of the retail money that that will usually follow the institutional money so I expect Bitcoin to get a lot more publicity next year um and I expect a lot more sort of uh retail money to come into the space a lot more money to come into probably altcoins as well um because it's it's more likely that altcoins are going to um be bought by retail investors as opposed to institutions but um you know Bitcoin Bitcoin is like uh you know Moses it has to lead the way it has to um lead the path for obviously the other the other alt coins to to to to get some of that money some of that trickle down really so uh but yeah this this is this is a a really positive story um and certainly if if you know the more companies that come out and say they're going to start investing these sorts of amounts into Bitcoin is uh is only going to send the price one way and of course I think what we're starting to see now is a real Trend emerg like a not not not just one or two companies but it's turning into you know sort half a dozen companies and and I'm sure there'll be there'll be half a dozen more coming sooner so um it is it is a bit of a uh institutional digital Gold Rush now and yeah it's very exciting times if you're a Bitcoin holder and the final story I wanted to look at so Wall Street Legend billionaire Wall Street Legend Ray Dario is changing his tune on bitcoin so he's come out and he said uh that Bitcoin is establishing itself as a gold-like asset alternative um and I think what is the one of the interesting things about this is diio had had famously branded Bitcoin a bubble in 2017 appears to changed his mind on whether Bitcoin can act as a store of value so this is uh this this is positive stuff Ray Delo is a legend when it comes to investment in Wall Street uh he when he speaks a lot of people listen and it's just really encouraging obviously we we've seen the lights of um drunken Miller we've seen the lights of truda Jones uh and now we're getting investors like Ray Delo coming out as well and I wouldn't be surprised if over the next few months we we we hear reports that Bridgewater have started to take a uh position in Bitcoin themselves which will all all add to the um sort of demand and the bu pressure on on the Bitcoin price so yeah I think we will wrap it up there thank you for watching and I'll catch you on the next one
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