저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국의 14년간 큰 침체 부재는 이례적이며 금리·인플레 재상승과 신규 투자자 유입 등 과거 고점 신호가 보인다. 주식·채권·부동산 다수가 고평가이고 원자재(은 등)만 상대적으로 싸다. 중앙은행 통화 증발이 문제를 키우고 있으며, 투자는 자신이 아는 분야에만 하라고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
guy as you know it's been what 14 years since we had a serious bare Market in the United States and I'll use United States since it's the largest market and that has never happened in American history we've never had such a long period without serious economic and financial problems so whatever is happening we're getting towards the end uh we see some of the signs inflation is rising again interest rates are rising again we see new entries coming into the new investors coming into the market and they call up their friends and say I've discovered this new thing called the stock market and it's fun and you can make money and it's easy it's easy to make money and so all the signs that the world has seen many times before are happening again I don't know how much longer this will go on but I do see worrying signs but the markets and therefore the world economy well it always has been able to I mean if nothing else a Federal Reserve can just print more money and they'll buy them up I mean I'm not suggesting this is good but that's the way at the moment anyway the system still works and the US can print and spend and borrow and spend that will someday come to an end or someday people will be on TV screaming about it but not yet but when when you see it Kai when you see on the evening news that the man in the street is worried about all the government debt and the interest rates are going higher and higher and the guys are saying I don't care I'm not going to borrow any I'm not going to blend them any more money then you'll know the crisis is here there's gigantic amounts of off-balance sheet debt in the US which will surpass I mean maybe Japan has a lot of off balance sheet de too but to answer your question yeah this worries me I mean the bank of Japan every day the guy goes to the goes to work and prints money he prints more money and prints as much as fast as he can he's a good Japanese bureaucrat he does what he's supposed to and this is going to lead to many many problems not just in Japan not just in the US everywhere Kai you're in Germany even the Germans have problems now there are German cities that have big debt problems Germany my God in my lifetime that Germany was the Paragon of virtue not anymore well as I look around the world Kai I see that stocks in most countries either are or have been at an alltime high or near making making new highs the bonds and bonds have never been this high in the history of the world so bonds are certainly a bubble though what's left I property yes you can invest in property and in some places it's great but many proper property markets New Zealand Korea I mean there many property bubbles going on around the world and really only leaves Commodities that are cheap I mean silver is down 60% from its all-time high sugar down more than 60% so the only asset class that I see where they're really cheap entities are Commodities that doesn't mean you can't lose money if you buy them but that's the only place I see on a historic basis cheap prices I guess us stock prices make me unhappy to use your words because they're there bubbles developing I mean Apple goes up every day you know that's been a great country company that does not mean it's going to be a great stock forever well since we're talking about the markets from most Waring on are all the new entries and they're Hyer developing Hysteria which is taking place these are signs that happen at the top of markets it's happened many times if you have an experiences you might have read about it and that's what's worrying me probably the most because markets can go up and down and do all sorts of strange things but eventually it's the investors who call the tune and if we have a lot of speculative new and speculative in uneducated or inexperienced I guess is a better word inexperienced investors it worries me doesn't make sense to me I've seen this movie before not the first time I've been to this Rodeo you know there were back once upon a time there were in the market there were the nifty50 and the wisdom was you buy these 50 companies you don't ever have to worry about the stocks just buy them and forget them you know how that wound up uh but this has happened often in history in the 20s is Radio Corp of America I mean m radio was new and it was a gigantic stock stock went straight through the roof always every week every day I mean 1929 came along ended that story but I mean this has happened before Kai uh all these young I should say not young but inexperienced investors coming in and talking about how easy it is it's not the first rodeo I don't the market is not tell I mean the market I hope will tell me when to buy it because someday I'm going to see everybody's negative on Silver and talk about how it always goes down and blah blah blah if that happens that the market will tell me to buy but silver is used in solar energy as you well know and many other things uh I'm not sure when I will buy or what the Catalyst will be I just hope I'm smart enough to buy it before it skyrockets again well the most important ad information for any investor is don't listen to the TV don't listen to the radio or the newspaper just invest only in what you yourself know a lot about now and everybody watching this knows a lot about something whether it's cars or fashion or something and that's where you become a successful investor stay with what you know key takeaways from Jim Rogers interview you know what's really interesting we're living through something that's never happened before in American history a 14-year stretch without any major Market crashes in the US but Jim Rogers sees some warning signs that make him nervous picture this new investors are jumping into the market calling their friends saying hey I just discovered this amazing thing called the stock market and it's so easy to make money if that doesn't ring alarm Bells I don't know what does he points out that we've seen this movie before like in the 1920s with radio Corporation of America or the nifty50 stocks that everyone thought were unbeatable spoiler alert it didn't end well either time it's like watching your neighbor buy their dreamhouse at the peak of the housing market you know it might not be the best timing what's particularly concerning is that pretty much everything seems expensive right now stocks at or near all-time highs in most countries bonds never been this expensive in history real estate bubble territory in many places like New Zealand and Korea the only thing that looks cheap to Jim is Commodities things like silver which is down 6 60% from its peak but here's the kicker's most practical advice isn't about what to buy or sell instead he emphasizes something surprisingly simple invest in what you actually know about if you're a car Enthusiast focus on Automotive related Investments if you're into fashion that's your Zone as he puts it be boring it might not sound exciting but it's probably better than jumping on whatever hot tip is trending on TV what really stands out is his concern about all the money printing happening worldwide from the US Federal Reserve to the bank of Japan central banks are creating money at unprecedented rates while this might keep the party going for now Jim suggests this isn't sustainable in the long run it's like putting more and more air into a balloon at some point something's got to give
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