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첫 줄 결론: 조엘 그린블라트의 '매직 포뮬라'가 연 40% 수익을 냈다는 것은 실력보다 운의 결과일 가능성이 높으며, 장기적으로는 배당·이익 성장 같은 기본기에 투자하는 것이 중요하다. 시장 구조: 투자 성과는 정규분포(벨 커브)를 따르며 평균 수익률 주변에 소수의 초과 성과자와 부진한 종목이 항상 존재한다. 문제는 사전에 누가 성과를 낼지 알 수 없다는 점이다. 사례 1 - 피터 린치: 1978년 당시 누구도 린치를 몰랐고, 피델리티 마젤란 펀드의 성과가 좋았기 때문에 사후적으로 유명해졌다. 초기 몇몇 종목의 행운도 기여했다고 봤다. 전략 확산에 따른 효과 소멸: 오래된 '다우의 개' 전략은 알려진 뒤 효과가 약해졌다. 1월 효과, 소형 가치주 효과도 널리 알려지면서 악용이 끝나면 더 이상 작동하지 않는다고 설명. 그린블라트 평가: 매직 포뮬라로 40%를 낼 수 있을지는 의문이며, 많은 사람이 몰리면 효과가 줄어들 것이라고 본다. 그의 성과는 운일 가능성이 있다고 평가. 투자 원칙: 투기(운)가 아니라 배당 성장, 이익 성장, 낮은 부채 같은 기본에 투자하라. 벤저민 그레이엄식으로 현금보유액보다 주가가 낮은 종목(순현금 차익거래)을 찾을 수 있다면 좋지만, 현재 그런 종목은 거의 없을 것이라고 봤다. 소형주 장기 성과: 소형 가치주는 장기적으로 대형주를 크게 앞섰지만, 특정 6년 구간(약 1976~1982년)을 놓치면 성과가 크게 떨어진다. 그린블라트 전략도 특정 기간을 놓치면 좋은 성과를 얻지 못할 수 있다고 주장. CGM 리얼리티 펀드: 2000년대 최고 성과 펀드였지만 투자 시점에 따라 결과가 크게 달라진다고 언급. 리스크 관리: 달걀을 한 바구니에 담지 말고 리스크를 분산하라. 장기적으로는 이익 성장과 배당 수익률이 중요하다. 마무리: 과도한 탐욕을 버리고 연 7% 수익률에 만족하라. 저금리 환경에서는 이 정도도 나쁘지 않다.
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what do I think about Joel gleam green bladders yeah Greenblatt's magic formula where you can get 40 where he's average forty percent a year over a certain amount of time I could care less there's always always a whoa dude was that guy doing me there's always an investment opportunity that looks good that's done well that just the idea of a new look man if you knew how the markets work is a bell curve a bell curve on the markets you have a median or an app it will say average just not it's not media it's the average rate of return it's not mean I shouldn't say that it's an average rate of return so you have a bell curve you have an average rate of return you will always forever have some outliers always on the outside of the averages some of those guys will be kicking butts and taking names some guys are gonna be horrible the problem is you don't know who's gonna be kicking butt and taking names in advance you don't know you don't know who Joe clean black or Greenblatt is before you we know that he had 40% nada Frank I don't know if that's true and I just I would've could care less it's kind of like the fidelity melt Magellan fund Peter Lynch the who's the tourists are running that fun and doing very very well no one knew who Peter Lynch was in 1978 the only reason we know Peter Lynch after the fact is because he did so well for the fidelity Magellan fund you would have invested at Peter Lynch in 1978 no cuz you know who he was he had a couple pics that were lucky I mean he bought the plant pantyhose maker of legs or whatever is called cuz his wife was buying him up or somebody that there's always outline me there's always luck there's always gonna be a Warren Buffett who's either lucky or good but you don't know until after the fact that's the problem you don't know until after the fact but there'll always be somebody who does well and there always be somebody who looks like a redheaded stepchild well Joe gleamed green like you can glean Greenblatt's portfolio give you 40% of year return going forward I would highly suspect not and the reason is because what's up to does well everyone flocks to it and it takes that I'm telling you about the old dogs the Dow where I first came across this was watching Motley Fool this is back before the evening I mean this is back when I think they're like 94 and I read the dogs of the Dow they had written an article the Gardner brothers I think they're brothers I don't say dogs are the doubt I said oh yeah it sounds pretty good and then it just blew up and blew up in a negative way because everyone saw yeah it's like the old a January effect small cap value effect I mean once these rules are exploited they can no longer be exploited but the issue of the guy like Joe clean why keep called clean Greenblatt as also takes as a couple stalks to blow up and in this case blow up in a good way and and you got a 40% portfolio performance you just got lucky you got lucky maybe bought some pink sheet stocks I don't know if they still have a pink sheet so penny stocks I guess that's what they call now it is if they still come on the pink sheets I don't know I don't know but it's luck and when you're investing you shouldn't invest based on speculation ie luck you should invest on investing in dividends growth earnings growth you over a year and if you want to go the value route which is low debt over this way I would look at Ben Graham way which is if you could buy a stock less than as cash holding so if they're cash let's just use mailbox company mailbox ain't cool you I'm just little I just drove by mailbox so say mailbox Inc it trades that five bucks a share its total cash holdings equal six bucks a share if you can find mailbox Inc get trades that five bucks a share in his total cash holdings equals six bucks a share that's the stock you should probably buy because this cash is worth more than the stock is trading is cash alone all the other assets are not even being taken in consideration just the cash so you are literally buying an arbitrage you're buying a stock for less than what as cash holdings are worthy I have a sneaky suspicion you're not gonna find any stocks like that right now I can tell you that I mean you might if you can't buy it I'm not going to do the research it bores me to death so I think nothing on Joel Greenblatt I have a hard time saying Joel Greenblatt is weird man there's like a tick in me I say Joel clean I don't know why that is Joel Greenblatt's magic for me or 40% yeah like it's just a dividend say a value orange stock process this so many value with stock screeners some are gonna work better than others simply because some stocks they're gonna buy are gonna boom some stocks are gonna buy gonna get crushed and you just don't know what's going in advance oh yeah just don't mess with this stuff just buy it and this is why at the end of the day if and this is why it kind of going back to small cap now he's not a good friend of mine who's I'm just putting all my money in stocks small cap values because historically small cap values have outperformed by far but the problem is if you did not have small cap values from 70 think it's 78 to 82 maybe 76 to 82 you did not outperform you didn't it's just a six years time reign frame and so the same thing with Joel Greenblatt I don't know what the what his holdings were but if you didn't buy it you know I don't know but if you miss a small cap value from 76 to 82 I think is what it was you've missed a small cap value extraordinary returns relative to the S&P 500 and I don't know the same thing with this magic form but if you miss a two-year time frame you miss out on the you know the overall performance I don't know but I bet that's the case I bet there's two years there it is so much better what was the CGM Realty I have an article on this the best-performing fund in the C Jim is a CGM Realty and I've drawn the blank two dudes names we used to run it might still I think it's C GM Realty fun anyway that was the best performing fun in the 2000s however if you bought it I have to revisit this article I have on it I had printed off I saved from like 2011 if you bought it I like you know freaking November of 2001 or November - I can't if you missed a certain amount of time in that fund it wasn't the best performing fund like you had to be in there the entirety of the time I can't read what it was but again just shows you block my friends is is the ambassador's best friend bad luck is the worst enemy don't be investing for luck that speculation just investing for your split you know spreading your eggs or don't put all your eggs in one basket spread your risk recognized earnings growth and dividend yields or all that really matters in the long run and just be happy with a 7% rate of return don't get over-the-top greedy just be happy so present rates return aren't too shabby specialist low interest rate environment and I will see you
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