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Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger on Bitcoin

Heritage Wealth Planning · 2022-05-02 · 유튜브 시청 2,902 · Board Views 8 · International

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저자: 미상 · 외국인

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결론: 영상은 비트코인에 부정적이며, 버핏의 '쥐약 제곱' 발언과 멍거의 비판을 소개하고 금을 가치 저장 수단으로 옹호한다. 버핏 발언 소개: 버핏은 2022년 주주총회에서 비트코인을 '쥐약 제곱(rat poison squared)'이라 표현했으며, 농지 1%를 250억 달러에 살 수 있다면 사겠지만 비트코인 전체를 25달러에 준다 해도 받지 않겠다고 말했다. 버핏 논리: 농지는 식량을, 아파트는 임대수익을 creat하지만 비트코인은 아무 것도 생산하지 않아 다음 사람이 더 비싸게 사주는 '더 바보 이론(greater fool theory)'에 의존한다고 주장했다. 통화 여부: 비트코인은 통화가 아니며 달러처럼 법정화폐로 받아들여지지 않는다고 주장했다. 가치 저장 수단: 영상은 주식도 가치 저장 수단이지만 금은 수천 년간 가치가 입증된 실물 자산이라고 평가했다. 멍거 발언: 멍거는 비트코인을 '어리석고(stupid), 사악하며(evil), 우리를 바보처럼 보이게 한다'고 비판했으나, 진행자는 연준 체제 훼손 주장과 중국 금지 사례 비교를 과장된 논리로 보고 반박했다. 진행자 입장: 비트코인 투기나 거래의 자유는 인정하지만, 본질적으로 가치를 창출하지 않는다고 본다. 금에도 같은 비판이 가능하다는 점도 인정했다. 리스크: 비트코인은 0으로 수렴할 가능성이 있다는 전망이 제시됨. 종목 언급: 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금 관련 직접 매매 언급은 없으며 금은 가치 저장 수단으로만 언급됨. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 비트코인이 투기 자산이며 0으로 갈 수 있다고 보나 단정적 가격 예측은 없음.

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01. buffing monger on bitcoin uh this is interesting to me and look i'm not the biggest fan of warren buffett i the guy just he strikes me as uh someone had to be warren buffett for some reason he was chosen uh to be the guy if that makes sense and anytime you see a uh the idea of this old grandpa fatherly guy with his you know hamburger and his uh what is he like a creamsicle the guy's he's got something right in there man uh in terms of his view of humanity there's just something's not right i don't know also put it uh just look at some of this uh his social justice causes uh which he said he he's gonna quiet down on anyway that i don't like it i don't but anyway i thought this was and on top of that anytime you're dealing in this kind of bell curve you're always you're all you're obviously going to have someone out the on the outer end of the bell curve like everyone says wow that's the guy there's always going to be someone there's always going to be a warren buffett now did it get there by skill or by luck it remains we don't know i would say bye but there's always going to be that guy who's well beyond uh average if that makes sense so there's always gonna be that guy who's well below average that's just that's just the nature of the bell curve you can't have everyone to be warren buffett you just can't so is it because he's good or is it because he got lucky or essentially because someone had to be that guy i think it's the latter that someone had to be that guy but anyway this was interesting what they said about bitcoin because i could not agree more um just a month after peter thiel called warren buffett the enemy of pulling a second life calls you pick up the telephone all right so uh peter thiel called buffa the enemy of bitcoin and describing him as a sociopathic grandpa from omaha buffett doubled down on his outlook of the popular crypto at the uh annual shareholder meeting for berkshire nobody wants their windpipe stepped on and i don't blame them i don't like to step on my windpipe but i will say this uh buffett said a bit referring to bitcoin is probably rat poison squared wow rap poison squared it's on peter thiel and buck let's take a look what bitcoin is doing today i haven't even checked the markets i know i did at the gate and they were way down um hey now we're up all right look at that yeah the s p was way down now it's up by a point but we'll take it let's take a look at old bitcoin shall we bitcoin is that 38 000 so we see uh yeah i mean all these people saying what did bitcoin do over the last five years or so and i'm like yeah i get it but that's not attractive but i will you know give him credit there it is but uh whatever i just you know people gotta do what they gotta do i don't care i just chuckle anyway so uh quote if you said for one percent interest in all the farmland in the u.s uh pay our group 25 billion so buff is saying if if he could buy one percent interest in all the farmland in the united states for 25 billion i'll cut you a check this afternoon for 25 billion i now own one percent of the farmland if you also tell me for one i'll own one percent of the apartment houses in the us and you want another 25 billion i'll write you a check now if you told me to you own all of the bitcoin in the world and offer it to me for 25 dollars i would not take it because bitcoin doesn't do anything i'd have to sell it back to you or somebody else at some point the apartments are going to produce rental and the farms are going to produce food that explains the difference between productive and something that depends on the next guy paying you more than the last guy you got it's called the greater fool theory the greater fool who's gonna be the greater fool the person who owns the let back that's there's no there's no value there that's the thing and now you say well value is a currency bitcoin isn't a currency it's just not this is not a currency man that's simply not a currency look and you can buy bitcoin i don't care but let's not pretend that bitcoin is going to replace a dollar as a currency it just doesn't that it's crazy to think now the only way bitcoin creates value as if other people value it more than what you do unless you sell it that's that's nothing wrong with that happens all the time but there is no asset there there's no value there it's the greater full theory you can say well the more you could call it something different not to be disparaging i don't care but it does nothing it does nothing that's what buffett is saying but it'll be you would central african republic just use bitcoin as a currency so so okay when okay whatever look and a lot of it's crazy but anyways keep going uh assets to have value have to deliver something to somebody and there's only one currency that's accepted you can come up with all kinds of things we can put up we can put berkshire coins out there but in the end this is money he announced holding up a dollar bill anyone who thinks that the united states government is going to change the way they let berkshire money replace theirs the united states government is out of their mind whether it goes up or down the next year or five or 10 i don't know but the one thing i'm pretty sure of is that it doesn't multiply which is one of the arguments in favor of bitcoin because it's not inflation i get it but it doesn't produce anything it's got a magic to it and people have attached magic to lots of things again it it's not a currency it's not a currency it's not a store of value you can say it's a store of value like i would say stocks are a store value stocks are a store of value either man that's not a store of value a store value is literally gold because value has been proven historically to be exchanged for something higher than it is now you could say well that's that's not an asset either oh it's on asset but it has a historic you tangible that has historically been proven to have value throughout the millennia where bitcoin not now could bitcoin be the next thing i highly suspect it won't be it could be but that's it a store of value gold and i've used this example a million times i use again had clients back in 2011 12 some of that black guy in florida i think or new york in new york i think yeah and uh going over his financial plan and he had uh just tons of gold i said why i got so much gold man and i you know i wasn't chastising i just wonder he goes oh let me tell you the story so his dad owned some camera with the senegal or something like that off the coast of africa ivory coast i came here had some kind of manufacturing firm in africa there's a black guy it's not a not cecil rhodes descendant or something like that and anyway long story short when the commies are coming i can't remember what country was i just can't remember um you know they were basically taking shooting business owners and taking their property and uh his dad said we got to get out the commies are coming and they were able to find to only only way they were able to get out wasn't with the currency of the day it was a goal to be able to get on a ship a base a boat to sail across a seas of cheese and they ended up in miami that's what it was and by then they moved their business to new york i can't remember what they did i forgot i almost want to say dry cleaning but i don't think that's what it was i can't remember but they're natural entrepreneurs and they came to miami they got free uh and they went to new york and then uh and i think he was trying to move back south to miami because new york was being incredibly uh confident scary on their tax code and i just i came about the whole thing but i remember he was thinking about moving to back to florida if memory serves real nice guy he goes dude i'll always have a lot of gold because that saved our lives having examples like that bitcoin no there isn't again that doesn't mean it can't happen but gold at least has a historical context that you can actually hold is a store of value again that doesn't mean it's going to keep up with inflation but will has always i can't say will has always been used to buy goods and services what i'm saying all right so monger chimes in and i don't like what monger says he's a little bit too brutal but in my life i try to avoid things that are stupid and evil and then make me look bad in comparison to somebody else and bitcoin does all three in the first place is because it's stupid because it's likely to go to zero yeah i mean i i don't have any qualm with that i would say stupid you know you're speculating here but i i get that it's evil because it undermines the federal reserve system that we desperately need to maintain in in its integrity and government control i see this is just stupid man it's evil because it undermines the federal reserve system is it literally undermining the federal reserve system charlie no come on man it's just it's idiotic to say that and and i finally find that undermining the federal reserve system that we desperately need to maintain this integrity and government control yeah because the federal reserve system has all so much integrity now let's just see this is the thing that's freaking stupid thing to say but yet there he is like oh there's so much integrity and then he says government control nothing scary there charlie which is one of the things i think these guys are the chosen chosen to represent the cabal and third it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in china he was smart enough to ban bitcoin in china and with all our presumed advantages in civilization we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in china and that's that's a ramping ravings of a madman that makes us look stupid relative the communist leader in china he banned it so he wants us to ban it see this is idiotic that's just people have a right to freaking trade any freaking old man yeah let's just see this is a problem you see the dichotomy here and i'd even say the false dichotomy bitcoin is stupid evil and dumb it makes us look dumb no the whole point is bitcoin doesn't have any value man that doesn't produce anything it's not a currency that's the problem with bitcoin not what monger said that's just idiotic but if you want to gamble or trade and speculate and i got no qualm with that you can make the same arguments against gold 100 and i have gold but i would say well gold historically has and we're not just talking since 1926 we're talking thousands of years could that change absolutely could change i don't suspect it will man i thought you'd like that we'll see you love your thoughts

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