Jeremy Grantham’s SUPER BUBBLE Reaches Final Stage

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Grantham의 최신 주장: 미국 시장은 '슈퍼버블' 4단계 중 3단계(반등 랠리)에 있고, 2000년·1929년·1972년 패턴과 유사해 침체 및 큰 하락이 올 수 있다. 그랜섬 주장 개요: 투자 경력에서 중요한 시장 사건은 드물며 슈퍼버블이 그중 하나다. 시장 시간의 약 85%는 정상, 15%는 버블이며 그중 12%는 과도한 낙관(밈주식·IPO 광풍), 3%는 공포 매도다. 과거 사례: 미국은 최근까지 슈퍼버블을 3번 겪었고(2000 나스닥, 1929, 1972), 1·2단계는 버블 형성과 조정, 3단계는 하락분의 약 50~60%를 회복하는 반등 랠리, 4단계는 펀더멘털 악화와 바닥 확인이다. 현재 S&P500은 6월 저점 대비 반등하며 손실의 58%를 회복해 과거 패턴과 유사하다. 밸류에이션 전망: 이익 마진 하락이 다음 단계를 이끌 것으로 보며, 설명된 PER이 약 20에서 15 수준으로 낮아질 가능성을 제시. 현재 실제 PE는 약 30~34배. PE가 15배로 수축하면 이익이 유지되더라도 주가는 50% 이상 하락할 수 있다는 계산. 금리 연계: 미국 인플레이션이 계속되면 연준은 향후 수 개월 내 금리를 몇 차례 더 올릴 가능성이 있고, 이는 주식 대비 채권 등 대체자산의 상대 매력을 높여 주가에 하방 압력을 준다. 연준 기준금리 1971년 이후 평균 약 5.4%, 시장 평균 PE는 약 15배. 진행자 입장: 그랜섬의 단기 시장 예측에는 동의하지 않으며, 인플레이션·금리 예측은 어렵고 급변할 수 있다고 봄. 본인 보유 종목은 현금이 충분하고 성장 기회가 커 단기 주가 변동에 개의치 않으며, 하락 시 추가 매수 기회로 본다. 개별 종목 추천은 없음. 리스크: 인플레이션 둔화, 글로벌 호재, 금리 인하 등으로 예측이 빗나갈 수 있음.

다듬은 글

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01. I I think this kind of 2000 bubble that we have is dangerously likely to morph into the 1970s okay I know I might have overdone it with the title on this one but highly respected investor Jeremy Grantham recently posted a press release with his latest theory on the stock market and those who know me know that even though I'm a long-term value investor who couldn't give a single Frank about what the stock market does in the short term I do love a juicy economic prediction and Grantham believes we've now entered the fourth and final stage of the Super Bubble and if that doesn't have you on the edge of your seat I don't know what will so in today's video I'm going to be breaking down the press release where he backs up his theory with quite a bit of data and as always if you enjoyed today's video I'd appreciate it if you take the two seconds to leave a like on the video and hit subscribe if you want to stay up to date with content that I post in the future but with that said let's jump into it right off the bat the first line that Grantham says in this press release is actually really really important he says only a few Market events in an Investor's career really matter and among the most important of all are super bubbles and yes he is using this just simply as a segue to talk about super bubbles but generally speaking this is actually a really good way to think about your investments in the stock market they're actually a very few moments where you'll make key decisions particularly if you're a long-term value investor that make the biggest difference in your portfolios performance over time really investing where you're thinking about putting your money to work in real businesses the ownership of real businesses is really a game of patience most of the time markets are just being markets and and there will be good periods there'll be bad periods most of the time you're just kind of riding the waves of the stock market and of the economy and then in very rare moments there will be the opportunity to get into an amazing company when it there is a massive amount of pessimism around it and in what we're going to talk about today in super bubbles this is an opportunity where broadly there will be opportunity to get into great companies at lower prices but generally speaking there are just very few moments across your career across your investing lifetime where you'll make big decisions that make the most impact in your portfolio grant them in the press release talks about his theory of bubbles in general he says most of the time 85 or thereabouts markets behave quite normally in these periods investors managers clients and individuals are happy enough but alas these periods truly do not matter it is only the other 15 of the time that matters when investors get carried away and become irrational these irrational periods we call Bubbles this is essentially where investors are euphoric about the recent performance of Investments and as a result they incorrectly extrapolate the recent good performance into the future and expect that what has happened recently will continue to happen for many many years essentially meaning people begin to speculate on what stock prices will do rather than truly assessing the value of the cash flows of the business is likely to produce in the future and Grantham believes that there are two types of bubbles there are just regular bubbles which he actually fits into the 85 percent of the time markets behave normally that's kind of just the normal ups and downs of the of the stock market that happens over eight to ten year periods or five to eight year periods and then about 15 of the time there are these Super Bubble periods he says mostly about 12 of the time this irrationality is excess optimism when you see meme stock squeezes and IPO frenzies such as the last two years and just now and then about three percent of the time investors panic and sell regardless of value as they did at 666 on the s p in 2009 and with many stocks trading at 2.5 times earnings in 1974.

02. these times of euphoria and panic are the most important for portfolios and the most dangerous for careers and that last line couldn't be more true these are the periods where you see who are the fools and who are the real investors the fools in the market will be wrapped up in the Super Bubble they'll be speculating enjoying the gains of of the recent past even though they don't actually understand the businesses they're investing in and they'll be piling into businesses uh that they don't really understand speculating on prices going higher while real investors are waiting patiently for the prices of businesses to fall far below the value of those businesses and Grantham says that this happens about three percent of the time uh most of the time during a Super Bubble it's Euphoria and then there's a sharp short period uh where investors are panicking and selling everything regardless of value and that's where a patient disciplined investor can uh get into great businesses at low prices and I tell you what if you just look at the YouTube space we are absolutely seeing this Divergence and we have seen this Divergence over the past couple of years I'm not going to name anyone specifically but there are big creators on the platform who have been pushing a number of speculative stocks over the past couple of years and then now scrambling to hide the fact that their top one two three four Investments over the past couple of years are all down 60 70 80 maybe even 90 percent Grantham goes on to talk about how the US has actually experienced three of these bubbles previously these super bubbles and that he believes we are now in another one outcomes for this unique group of super bubbles just three in modern times in the US before the current one are indeed special the much discussed by us Divergence between conservative and speculative stocks the rapid bear Market rallies discussed later here the rapid onset of recession three out of three incidents to date with one mild in 2000 in 2000 and the other two in 1929 and 1972 which were severe and finally the much increased probability of further unexpected financial and economic accidents so what are the stages of the super bubbles what can we look back at over these three previous super bubbles and look for patterns in what we're seeing in the market today the first stage the bubble forms second a setback occurs just as it did in the first half of this year when some wrinkles in the economic or political environment cause investors to realize that Perfection after all will not last forever and valuations take a half step back then there is what we have just seen the bear Market rally fourth and finally fundamentals deteriorate and the market declines to a low Wrentham believes we're in this third stage of the Super Bubble where markets recover about 50 percent of the losses that have happened over the past year and this is something that has been a feature of the previous three bubbles from the November low in 1929 to April 1930 High the market rallied 46 which was a 55 recovery of the losses from the peak in 1973 the summer rally after the initial decline recovered 59 of the s p 500's total loss from high in 2000 the NASDAQ which has been the main event of the tech bubble recovered sixty percent in its initial loss just out after two months and in 2022 this year at the intraday Peak on August 16th the S P 500 had made back 58 of its losses since its June low thus we could say the current event so far looks eerily similar to the other historical bubbles Grantham goes on to explain what we should expect to see in the next stage going on from this point forward the next leg for the model is likely to be driven by Falling margins our best guess is that the level of explained price to earnings ratio will fall towards 15 compared to the current level of explained price to earnings ratio of just under 20 while the actual PE just Rose from 30 to 34 times in mid-august which was probably a bear Market rally here Grantham is talking about the multiple that investors are willing to pay in terms of stock prices on their current earnings he believes that this should be approaching 15 times earnings whereas it's currently at about over 30 times earnings which would mean even if earnings stayed flat if the price to earnings ratio contracted that much it would cause a more than 50 decline in the stock market and this actually isn't a completely unbacked unreasonable position to take and the one way we can think about it is in relation to interest rates with inflation not slowing down in the US the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to raise interest rates at least for the foreseeable future and as that happens that puts downward pressure on stock prices and that's simply because as interest rates go up the return that you can get on government bonds and on corporate bonds and other risky assets also goes up and that makes them relatively more attractive compared to stocks in fact if you exclude economic growth then the changes in interest rates are actually the biggest Factor influencing stock prices and their valuations the federal funds rate the official interest rate in the U.S has averaged about 5.4 percent since 1971 so as interest rates approach that you would expect the market p e would probably approach the average Market PE which has been around 15.

03. so in simple terms if inflation continues and the FED has to continue to raise interest rates maybe another three or four different times over the next 12 months maybe or over the next six months then it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect that the market would approach 15 times earnings which is what Grantham expects to happen so then why am I personally not selling my shares why am I not looking at this press release and thinking crap I should be out of the market it's going to fall another 50 percent it's simply because I think that some of the inputs that Grantham is using to predict what the market will do in the short term are unpredictable things for example take his core assumption that profit margins will fall over the next six to 12 months given that we're in a high inflation environment that's a fairly reasonable prediction to make but what's to say that inflation doesn't slow down from here what's to say that there aren't a number of global catalysts that improve economic conditions and actually mean that the Federal Reserve doesn't need to do a number of rate hikes in fact maybe they may be lowering interest rates in 12 months time that's not my prediction I don't know what's going to happen but things broadly can change very very quickly think about how quickly inflation surged in the US it's only really just happened in the past 12 to 18 months it's been a very fast transition things can change very very quickly and from what I've seen over the past few years it's very very difficult to predict what is going to happen with inflation or interest rates so using them to make predictions about what the stock market will do tends to lead to making decisions about your portfolio that don't really make any sense when you can just think of your Investments as if you're a business owner because of the types of businesses that I hold in my portfolio it doesn't really matter in the short term what stock prices do they have enough cash to fund their operations to last through a period of weak economic activity and at the other side they have massive growth opportunities so I have no problem kind of riding the wave of what happens and if stock prices come down it's just an opportunity for me to add more to those Investments