저자: CoachInvestor · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가가 연초 대비 160% 이상 상승했으나 주가수익비율·주가매출비율 등 전통 밸류에이션 지표상 매우 고평가 상태라고 진단. 분기 매출 가이던스 상향(약 110억 달러)과 데이터센터 성장에 대해 장기적으로는 여전히 강세 견해를 유지하지만, 지금 신규 매수는 기대수익이 낮을 수 있다고 주장. 이익 확대 시 밸류에이션이 완화될 가능성도 언급. 발언자는 신규 진입자에게 지금은 다른 종목을 찾거나 관망하라고 권고, 이익 실현은 부끄러운 일이 아니라고 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone coach investor back to another video for today so let's talk about the hottest company on this planet right now Nvidia stock is up over 160 percent year to date of course you all know if you're following the news because of the rise of generative AI the hype around Ai and the benefits that Nvidia will get from all of this we've already seen one huge benefit of it is that they raised the revenue guidance for next quarter by over 50 percent right they expect Revenue to be around 11 billion dollars this quarter Revenue was 7.1 billion dollars so a huge huge jump that's why the stock has gone up tremendously since they reported earnings as well now we talked about the earnings report in another video if you missed that it's going to be in the top right corner I'll do another video about nvidia's for new price targets and the comments from all the analysts and why you should be aware of this but I already started a link to an introduction in this video now if you look at the graph currently and this is the daily chart of course very very much overbought right now and this is before the Market opens so we're going to be even more overbought if the price stays above 400 huge gap here huge huge gap of course for this Gap to get filled the stock will have to go down quite a lot this is on the daily chart by the way not all gaps do get filled as always but most of them do and this is a pretty big one and then if you look at the weekly chart actually just open the market just open fourth and six dollars another green candle for now we still have a couple of days left this week a small Gap ish here then if you look at the RSI it has been overbought in the last couple of weeks actually last couple of months or so again it's been overbought for last couple of months two months actually and still the stock has gone up tremendously but right now I would be very very careful at buying a company like Nvidia at the price it is today and I want to be very very careful with my words here because I know that some people in the comments will already disagree or throw negativity around I was always bullish on Nvidia when other people on here were saying oh Nvidia is about to collapse the collapse of Nvidia etc etc when it was around 110 120 or so I kept pounding the table tremendous company for the long term and even at 110 120 dollars those company was still expensive but right now I'm still staying the same thing tremendous company but because we are at a point where this company is now worth a trillion dollars where it rates at super high valuations we're going to have a look at that in just a second if you're buying it today what will your returns be in the future that's the question I'm not talking about people that already bought a couple of years ago a couple of months ago you have huge gains right now I'm talking about people that want to buy the stock today today to be honest I would not take your money and buy Nvidia shares today I'm not saying I'm not taking my I'm taking your money I'm not buying Nvidia shares today because the returns in the future will probably not be as great as you think at a trillion dollar market cap with the revenues that it is generating right now and projected to generate in the future right take into consideration the 11 billion dollars in net quarter and let's say in the coming quarters as well 40 billion dollars in sales this year which means that price to sales ratio is at plus 20 times right now something like that depending of course on the time you're watching this so not cheap at all so again if you're planning on buying company today consider that Nvidia will probably not generate that much of a return in the future maybe with BuyBacks maybe with Buybacks in the future as there is more and more free cash flow as they have more and more cash on their balance sheets and they have nothing else to do then they'll buy more shares maybe raise their dividends yes maybe then your returns will be a bit better but currently to be honest although it's a great company I don't think that today is the day you should be buying a company like Nvidia other plenty of other options in the market where your returns will probably be much better than buying Nvidia at over 400 today now if you're enjoying this type of videos so far please do leave it a thumbs up subscribe if you have not would really appreciate that and if you want to support me even further check out the link down in the description and in the pin comment to get the top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to full.com for slash couch investor now with regards to evaluations if you want you can pause the screen right now this is for every fiscal year since 2014.
you can clearly see here if you go by traditional metrics PE ratios in the last 12 months in the next 12 months it's not cheap at all price to free cash flow price to gross profits sales last 12 months next 12 months it is very very very expensive right now now of course if you look at all the metrics right now next quarter we will see a huge bump right non-gaap gross margin of around 70 percent revenue of 11 billion dollars so you will see a huge jump if you look at the quarterly numbers but also this will affect the fiscal year numbers as well the full year numbers so if they can continue to grow like that yes valuations will come down if the stock price stays flat for a while but if the stock price goes up and up and up then of course it will take even more time for valuation to catch up but if stock price goes down business continues to go up then yes valuations will become much more attractive in the future now again Nvidia has been expensive for a while but when there is so much hype with regards to one topic when there is so much momentum especially with Nvidia rarely is it a good move to go against it rarely is it a good move to start shorting the company or something like that because you will get crushed wait for the market to show you some proof that suddenly the market is done with this momentum maybe it's going to be down 10 during the week then you might start to say hmm maybe we're starting to see a downtrend right now now with regards to Future expectation Etc this is basically the earnings per share surprising estimates by quarter so of course last quarter debated by 17 cents now the consensus for next quarter is that it will be growing 303 year over year for Q3 287 percent year-over-year Q4 172 percent and then q1 of 2025 fiscal year 2021 for NVIDIA 109 growth for the earnings this is the consensus numbers as for revenue for this year they expect 50 eight percent growth year over year to 42 billion dollars next year they expect 17.9 percent grow to 50 billion dollars then I'll stop at January 2026 23 growth year over year to 62.39 billion dollars after that not that many analysts have been telling us what they think about it so we're gonna stop at 2026 so this is the growth that you will probably expect to see especially at the price you're paying today so for price to sales ratio for 2026 at 62 billion dollars in revenue is 15.44 times which again is not cheap at all even though it is and will be growing quite fast and if you need a small reminder this is basically the revenue trend for the last two years or so and yes as I've been saying for a long long time data center will continue to grow I think we're Gathering momentum with regards to gaming I would like to see professional visualization pick it up a notch at least a little bit because we are down quite a lot since q1 fiscal year 2023 and then with auto you will see this increase a lot I believe in 2025 they will be releasing a new product out there so that should help the company as well but right now the major Catalyst here is obviously data center so overall although I'm still bullish the company NVIDIA I cannot say in good conscience that I will take someone's money and tell them to buy the stock today at 400 plus dollars at a trillion dollar market cap with the current financials I think there are many many other options out there that are probably better of course with the momentum that Nvidia has like I said it is difficult to bet against it currently it's not to say that I'll show the company or something like that in the future and never short never will be but currently even though if you own Nvidia which by the way I own it in a second smaller portfolio we all know right we all know deep down how expensive this company is although we know that it's a great company we know that it is very very expensive even with all the expectations that it has given us and the things that we're expecting the next quarter in the characters to come right because it is the leader in what it's doing right now still still with all of that taking into consideration very very expensive so is it time to cut well I think there's no shame in taking profits and I think that if you don't have a position in Nvidia right now I would probably suggest to look for something else or wait on the sidelines that just my opinion of course you can disagree if you want leave your comments down in the comment section below if you enjoy this type of videos give it a thumbs up subscribe if you have not and I'll see you all in the next one bye foreign
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