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hey what's up stock compounders brad here so today i want to talk about stanley druckenmiller's 20 million dollar bet on bitcoin so stanley did a q a session a couple weeks ago where he talked about his evolution around bitcoin i don't really like to talk much about cryptocurrency on the channel uh i think it's unusual to get a really thoughtful analysis of crypto particularly when it comes to investing in different cryptocurrencies uh but whenever you have a top level investor like stanley druckenmiller talking about you know his thought process uh around something like bitcoin i like to pay attention because it's not something i feel like we can ignore anymore as investors doesn't mean we have to buy into it but i want to keep up on what's happening in the space so we're going to go through some of stanley druckenmiller's kind of key points key thesis points around his 20 million dollar bet and yeah let's dive into it so he's asked about bitcoin in this q a i will link to the q a in the description for those of you who want to get the the full version but he says i've evolved on this five or six years ago i said more than once crypto and bitcoin are a solution in search of a problem okay so he couldn't see the issue the problem that kryptos were trying to address um what what the hell are these people looking for we already have the solution it's called the dollar right he didn't see why crypto was an improvement over the dollar uh keep in mind you know stanley druckenmiller had made billions of dollars uh in the capital markets um right now his net worth is like five billion dollars okay so someone who's you know very well steeped in you know those kind of older economics it's you know hard to teach a dog new tricks in some ways but uh you know he stayed open-minded and and we're going to talk about his evolution um for the first move in bitcoin he says it went from around 50 to 17 000 okay it actually went to 20 000 uh and he just sat there aghast he wanted to buy it every day it was going up so he had fomo right he actually had romo reality of missing out as he watched this thing just go up and up and up and of course it dropped from twenty thousand down to around three thousand um and a few things happened when it dropped down to around three thousand uh the first thing is the solution in search of a problem you know stanley found the problem okay when the in the us here we had the cares act and jerome powell started crossing all kinds of red lines in terms of what the fed was willing to do the problem was jay powell and the world's central bankers going nuts okay in the words of druckenmiller and making fiat money even more questionable than it had already been when druckenmiller used to own gold okay so that was the first uh thing that really got druckenmiller interested in bitcoin the central bank craziness uh the second thing druckenmiller got a call from paul tudor jones and he says do you know that when bitcoin went from 17 000 to 3000 86 of the people who owned bitcoin at 17 000 never sold it okay 86 of the people who owned bitcoin wrote it down for an 82 drop okay from actually twenty thousand down to three thousand um who the hell holds something through a drop like that so that really got uh druckenmiller's attention you've got these owners with a long-term orientation right they believe in the technology they believe in bitcoin all right so those those two things really got his attention uh it had a few more years under its belt he's talking about bitcoin goes up to six thousand all right so it dropped all the way down to three thousand now it's up at six thousand he thought well i need to buy some of this because these kids on the west coast are already worth more than i am obviously he's exaggerating a bit there and they'll be making a lot more money than me in the future all right so clearly druckenmiller had some fomo that was was operating and it's kind of interesting how straightforward how direct he is about experiencing that fomo to the point where it seems to have played in to getting him to actually take a position in bitcoin uh for some reason they're looking at this thing the way i've always looked at gold right these kids are looking at bitcoin the way druckenmiller has always looked at gold which is a store of value if i no longer trust fiat currencies all right so that's kind of the thesis there the fact that it had been around 13 years it had become a brand right so druckenmiller sees bitcoin as a brand uh it's not just this you know random cryptocurrency it's actually got some brand value some intangible value uh he tried to buy a hundred million dollars worth of bitcoin all right he went into this thing thinking all right this is how much i'm going to accumulate and he started buying around 6 200 uh per bitcoin it took two weeks to buy 20 million dollars worth okay so he's only a fifth of the way into his desired position and it's already taken two weeks to accumulate that he thought this is ridiculous i can buy that much gold in two seconds all right so he's comparing his experience buying bitcoin to what it would be buying gold and it's just not you know it's it's not adding up he doesn't like that it's taking so long so he says like an idiot i stopped buying at 20 million only a fifth of the position that he wanted the next thing he knew it's trading at 36 000 okay so it goes from 6500 is really where he accumulated that 20 million dollar position uh and then it's up at 36 000.
now when it hits 36 000 he took his cost out all right so say you know he he put 20 million in so he's selling 20 million worth of bitcoin at 36 000. took his cost out and then some all right so i don't know maybe he's cashing out 40 million dollars worth of bitcoin when it hits 36 000. uh he says i still own some my heart has never been in it all right this was really just a fomo play uh a bet that he made because he thought it was going to go up and he was tired of sitting on the sidelines he says i'm a 68 year old dinosaur okay and that's part of why his heart's just never been in it it's not something i guess he can really uh wrap his head around or get excited about this this bitcoin uh technology once it started moving and all these institutions started adopting it i could see the old elephant trying to get through the keyhole all right so you've got this thing where there's only going to be 21 million bitcoins in existence okay so a fixed supply and that supply is actually diminishing uh over time obviously there's still bitcoin being mined um but you know when people lose their bitcoin like the story of the guy who had his keys for his bitcoin on his computer the computer somehow ended up in the landfill and of course he could never find it so uh you know people lose their keys all the time so they can't access their bitcoin it's effectively gone all right so you know 21 million is if everyone uh keeps you know access to their keys and their bitcoin obviously uh that's diminished some over time uh and then he says so right the old elephant trying to get through the keyhole this fixed supply and all this big institutional money trying to get their hands on bitcoin where you've got 86 of the owners who aren't willing to sell so there's a lot more demand than there is supply which i guess is why drucker miller thinks it shot up so much um now dr miller says he owns this company called talenteer okay most of us are familiar with palantir and they announce they will start accepting bitcoin right and this is happening all over the place you've got tesla putting some of the balance sheet into bitcoin there's just more and more institutional level players getting into the space because it's a brand that's been around for 14 years because of the finite supply it has won the store of value game okay that's what druckenmiller says about you know you've got digital gold all right that's that's the store of value in the cryptocurrency space druckenmiller thinks bitcoin it's going to be really tough to unseat bitcoin in that a digital gold store of value corner of cryptocurrencies then you get to commerce facilitators ethereum would be the one that's leading at this stage there i'm a little more skeptical as to whether they can hold their position okay so that's that's interesting it reminds me of myspace before facebook or yahoo before google came along um so you know that that's kind of where he sees ethereum it's obviously got an early advantage it's got the lead but he thinks with all of these really smart students coming out of stanford and mit and these other technical schools really moving into that space really interested in the space of cryptocurrency he thinks ethereum is likely to be disrupted by some project by some team coming out of one of these universities that doesn't even exist yet okay so that's that's his take on ethereum much more risky uh than than bitcoin one of the ways we've always invested in the private sector is to try to figure out where the engineering kids from stanford and brown and mit where those kids are going okay and so many of them are going into the crypto space so many of them are in love with crypto right that's they're passionate about crypto in a way that druckenmiller just is not uh there's a good chance that the project that will dominate commerce facilitation hasn't even been invented yet right so that's that's what i just said uh as long as jerome powell keeps acting the way he's acting bitcoin as high beta gold which is kind of an interesting way to frame uh bitcoin will have the wind behind it so he thinks you know there's tailwinds as long as the fed continues to print money to throw money uh to keep the markets uh elevated right to keep them afloat in a sense and he talks briefly about dogecoin uh he doesn't have any fomo around dogecoin dogecoin has doesn't have a limited supply okay so he just doesn't see any kind of investment case for dogecoin it's really just one of these meme uh type speculative bets uh that elon musk has been pumping and others but uh dogecoin does not give him fomo um and presumably bitcoin doesn't give him fomo anymore as well although he certainly wishes he would have plowed that whole 100 million dollars into bitcoin instead of just 20 million dollars but you know i presume uh druckenmiller will maintain a position in bitcoin and ride it uh for a number of years which is similar to my approach i bought at around 9000 and you know it wasn't 20 million dollars it was a very small piece of uh my investment pie really just to have some exposure to to bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrencies not even really as an investment um just to you know one to have some exposure also to encourage myself to learn more about the space to have some skin in the game to have a bit of an ownership mindset around bitcoin and ethereum and and a few others um but certainly it was money that i was completely willing to lose if if all of that went to zero um but you know it's it's interesting we've got more and more of these you know great value investors who are coming out of the woodwork taking some initial positions in bitcoin and kind of sharing their rationale for doing so so something i'm watching uh let me know what you guys have seen from great investors who have shared you know what they're seeing uh in different cryptocurrencies i think ray dalio took a position recently i haven't read anything that he's put out on his rationale behind that i know he's talked a little bit about bitcoin in the past um but it's an interesting time guys it's going to be really interesting to see you know the evolution particularly in the um commerce facilitation space uh within cryptos to see you know who are the dominant players that come out of that if it's not going to be ethereum you know that's going to be very interesting to watch and can bitcoin can bitcoin really hold on over the next decade or two in terms of its dominance um being the digital gold of choice for investors so anyway guys just wanted to share my two cents on stanley druckenmiller's recent q a i will link to that in the description and uh hopefully i'm not going to get a ton of spam because i'm putting out a video on bitcoin and kryptos you know there's all these daisy chain comments that kind of come out whenever i do something like this so i'll try to stay on top of you know blocking the spam that comes out just to keep it somewhat organized down there in the comments for all of you but let me know what you guys think uh about bitcoin and ethereum if you're dabbling in the space and and what you're seeing out there all right guys that's all i got for today i will see you all in the next video take care
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