저자: Marco · 외국인
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결론: 워런 버핏(버크셔 해서웨이)이 2018년에 살 만한 종목을 자체 투자 기준으로 스크리닝해 보는 교육 영상이며, 구체적 매수 예측은 없음. [배경] 버크셔가 약 1000억 달러 현금을 보유하고 있고 그중 약 800억 달러를 인수·투자에 쓸 예정이라는 기사를 언급. [버크셔 투자 방식] 버크셔는 자회사 보유 지주회사이며, 경영진이 우수하고 재무구조가 탄탄하며 브랜드와 업계 내 저비용 경쟁우위를 가진 기업에 투자함. 2017년 약 27건의 거래, 대부분 bolt-on 인수였음. 예시로 TTI Inc가 한국 반도체 기업을 인수한 사례 언급. [스크리닝 기준] 세전이익 최소 5억 달러(영상 내 5000만 달러 기준은 변경 언급), 3년 연속 PER 15배 이상, ROE 8% 이상, 부채비율 33% 이하, 경영진 재임 5년 이상, 하위업종 5개 이하의 단순한 사업. 매수 희망 가격 제시는 측정 불가로 제외. [스크리닝 결과] 12개 기업 중 고평가로 판단해 찰스슈왑, 인튜이티브서지컬, VMware를 제외하고 아디다스, 블랙록, 코그니전트, 헨켈, 로레알, 나이키, 퍼블릭스토리지, S&P 등 8개를 후보로 제시. [판단 기준] 버핏이 선호하는 경제적 해자(진입장벽)가 큰 기업이 대부분 후보에 부합한다고 설명. 영상의 목적은 버핏과 같은 종목을 고르는 규율 있는 스크리닝 연습이라고 강조. [리스크/조건] 버핏이 실제로 이 종목들을 살지는 미확인이며, 영상은 투자 권유가 아닌 기준 설명 중심. [출연자 전망] 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언 없음.
다듬은 글
in this video we're gonna talk about what stocks Warren Buffett is buying in 2018 stay tuned welcome back to whiteboard finance my name is Marco and I'm here to help you master your money and build your wealth today we're talking about what stocks Warren Buffett is potentially buying in 2018 and I'm gonna have a little bit of fun with this today the way this came to my attention was that I read an article that Berkshire Hathaway has about a hundred billion dollars of cash on hand and about 80 billion of that is earmarked for acquisitions and investments so if you don't know Berkshire Hathaway is actually Warren Buffett's holding company so Berkshire Hathaway is a company that owns companies so they don't necessarily need to be the majority holder but think of it like a basket of stocks kind of like your portfolio that's what Berkshire Hathaway is so it invests in companies with the best management's in place incredibly strong balance sheets strong brand recognition and Industry low cost competitive advantages this helps warren buffett obviously stay in the position of being one of the richest people in the world but it also makes sure that their company's been profitable for a number of years now so in 2017 Berkshire Hathaway made about 27 transactions most of those being bolt-on acquisitions so if you don't know what a bolt-on acquisition is a bolt-on acquisition simply refers to the purchase of a company that merges into the division or a division of the acquiring company so for example Berkshire Hathaway has a subsidiary called TTI Inc and what they did was they bought a South Korean semiconductor company called chang-gyum int and they expanded into the South Korean market via that acquisition so chayim int obviously complemented some part of TTI inks business and that's why they went with that acquisition I wanted to have a little bit of fun with this because we obviously can't read Warren Buffett's mind but we do have criteria that's publicly available online as to how Berkshire Hathaway makes their investments so take a look at this screenshot their investment criteria is a large purchases so at least 50 million before tax earnings this has changed and it's actually I think 75 recently but we'll stick with 50 for this example demonstrated consistent earning power business earnings have good returns on equity while employing little to no debt they have a strong management in place it's a simple business so if there's lots of technology or things that they don't understand they won't invest in it and offering price is mandatory because they don't want to waste their time or the potential acquiring company and also the larger the company the greater their interest will be so they would like to make an acquisition in the 5 to 20 billion dollar range so Berkshire Hathaway ended the last quarter with about a hundred billion dollars with cash in the books as I just mentioned so I'm gonna bump up that 5 to 20 billion dollar criteria mark up just a little bit higher the reason I'm doing that is because of a they have so much money on the books and B they actually tried to make a acquisition of craft Unilever for a hundred forty two billion dollars recently that actually fell through it failed so ultimately I'm gonna go through the criteria right here so let's take a look at that the first is pre-tax income of at least five hundred million dollars so this satisfies the purchase requirement in step one so Berkshire Hathaway set a threshold of 50 million dollars in that criteria that we looked at but expanding it to 500 million on the same ratio will give us a company size somewhere in between 33 to 133 billion dollars to look at criteria to is having a p/e ratio of at least 15 times each of the prior 3 years so this satisfies the condition of having consistent earning power third is a return of equity of at least 8% for the prior 3 years additionally the company's debt to equity ratio must be no more than 33% because they don't want to have a lot of debt and you can see that this satisfies the condition of earning good returns on equity with little to no debt for is the average tenure of management is at least five years so given the 3 year performance of the metrics that we set this helps ensure that the management has been doing a good job and it's already in place number five no more than five sub industries so what I mean by this is that Warren Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway mentioned that they want to have invest in simple businesses that are easy to understand so I think that this satisfies that requirement so the only piece of criteria that we can't meet is an offering price the reason for that is because these companies aren't shouting from the rooftops hey we're for sale or please invest heavily into us so ultimately that's a piece of criteria that we can't measure for or screen for so when putting all these screeners into place there were actually a dozen companies that met all these filters so let's take a look at them very quickly so you can see from this list that these are actually the twelve companies that were working with and I actually wanted to review excuse me remove the ones that look overvalued so I got rid of actally on Charles Schwab Intuitive Surgical and VMware the reason I did that was because Warren Buffett is obviously a value investor and he's not going to overpay for a company simply because it meets his criteria so that leaves us with eight so let's take a look at these eight we have Adidas Blackrock cognizant Henkel L'Oreal Nike public storage and sa P so now that we have our eight now what well warren buffett is ultimately going to buy what he wants and he usually buys companies with large moats so if you remember in my previous videos i talked about companies having a moat what a moat means in medieval terms is that you had the castle with the water around it that's actually the castles protective barrier or barrier to entry if you will so when you think of an economic moat or moat in the sense of talking about publicly traded companies or stocks that's kind of like the company's stick or their barrier to entry against competition so Nike has a very large moat in the athletic apparel industry if you look at Geico they have a pretty big moat in the insurance industry so that's kind of what I mean by moats so most of these eight companies fit that criteria so what was the point of this video for me it was a fun exercise to see if we can pick the same stocks as Warren Buffett in 20 and beyond so I think it's a pretty good sign if we invest in the same companies that he does because he's been pretty successful in case you haven't heard so ultimately I think it's a good exercise in stock screening and also staying disciplined to a certain investment criteria a lot of us like to hear buzz about certain stocks and kind of just get that shiny object syndrome to where we're going to the next brightest best thing but I think it's good to stick to a set of discipline rules so let's see going forward in 2018 if Warren Buffett ultimately invests in any of these eight companies and if he does you have to share this video with that least one person that's my only obligation for this video for you guys so thank you so much for watching I really appreciate it if you haven't subscribed or shared any of my videos please do so below you can share these videos with your friend or anybody else that you think would get value from them thank you so much and have a prosperous day hey Warren its Marco how you doing good good nothing just relaxing how are the kids that's good by any chance are you investing in Nike in 2018 hello hello
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