저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 켄 피셔는 2018년 미국 강세장이 아직 초기 가속 국면이며, 자산 배분은 미국 비중을 줄이고 해외(비미국) 비중을 높이는 것이 좋다고 주장한다. 시장 현황: 올해 미국 증시 상승은 역사적 강세장의 평균 연수익(약 22%)과 비슷한 수준이라 특별히 이례적이지 않다고 봤다. 강세장은 초반 급등, 중반 횡보, 후반 재가속의 패턴을 보인다. 향후 전망: 2018년 성과는 2017년과 비슷하거나 더 강할 수 있으나 상승은 미국보다 해외에서 주도될 것이라고 예측했다. 강세장은 아직 낙관 단계이며 도취(euphoria) 단계는 아니라고 봤다. 강세장은 도취에서 시작해 불안·낙관을 거쳐 도취로 끝나며, 도취 단계가 오면 강세장 종료를 걱정하지 않게 된다고 설명했다. 자산 배분: 전 세계 시가총액 중 미국 비중이 50% 이상이므로 미국 비중을 50% 아래로 낮추고 비미국 비중을 높이라고 권했다. 미국과 비미국 시장은 항상 같은 방향으로 움직이며 선행·후행 차이만 있다고 봤다. 비트코인: 가치 평가 방법을 모르며 잘 알지 못한다고 밝혔다. 강세장 과열 시 투기 열풍의 창(window) 역할을 할 수 있다고 언급했다. 리스크: 10~20% 조정은 원인 없이도 언제든 올 수 있으나 짧게 끝나므로 타이밍을 노리지 말라고 했다. 진짜 위험은 전 세계 GDP 규모 대비 수조 달러 규모의 예상치 못한 악재나 무역 중단 같은 의도하지 않은 결과다. 지역 전쟁은 글로벌 무역이 계속되는 한 시장에 작은 장애물에 그친다고 봤다. 2008년 FAS 157 시가평가 규정처럼 규제의 의도치 않은 부작용이 은행에 큰 충격을 줄 수 있다고 경고했다. 은퇴·연금: 65세 이후 기대수명이 길어져 장기 투자 기간이 25~35년일 수 있으니 지나치게 보수적이면 안 된다고 강조했다. 사회보장제도는 적립금 투자가 아닌 부과식이라 젊은 세대는 기대하지 말고 스스로 저축해야 한다고 했다. 젊은 투자자: 장기적으로 주식이 채권·현금보다 수익이 높으므로 단순하게 주식 중심으로 가져가라고 조언했다. 시장을 이기려면 남들이 모르는 정보가 필요하므로 복잡한 타이밍 전략은 피하라고 했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 강세장 지속 가능성 높음, 해외 우위, 미국 비중 축소, 비트코인 무관심, 장기 주식 중심 투자.
다듬은 글
here with his 2018 stock market outlook is Ken Fisher chairman of Fisher Investments Ken welcome back good to see you always great to be with each God all right so what do you make of the record rally and stocks this year it's been incredible to watch well I don't really think of it as a record rally let me just be real clear this year in the US stock market is the average annual return of a bull market in history it's not an above average year people forget that normally bull markets have a pattern that's more or less it's not perfect but most of the advance is the first third in the back third and the middle is flatter that's the normal pattern they accelerate off the bottom in a v-shape and then they flatten out in the middle and then they accelerate again in the end but the average of that in history is a 22% return which people forget that bull markets are twice the average long-term annual return that includes bear markets this year is not so extraordinary it's just having gone through that flat period or the flatter middle we're not used to this kind of a number because the in this long bull market that middle flat period was pretty low I think we're just in that acceleration phase but we're also in the period where foreigns taken over from us which happened all this year and should continue for another year or so and maybe maybe too far in the future for the rest of this bull market but if I had to make a guess I'd say this year is as this year 2018 is this strong or stronger than 2017 but most of it should be overseas not America this should be a foreign led bull market from here so that's how you should position your portfolio going into 2018 overweight to foreign over us so if you look at the world the world is a little over 50% u.s.
in terms of cap weighting ex-cm and you really want to flip that around and have it more non-us than us with your us waiting still material but well under 50% but still everyone wants to know when the u.s. bull market will end is there any well the u.s. bull market will end the same time that the non-us bull market ends because they're always positively correlated you will never find the rest of your life any material time the US market goes one way in the non-us market goes the other way they're always positively correlated the question is which leads in which lags I got a few might be wrong but it's taken us eight years to get to 2017 and from 2009 generally we're just in that part that's starting to ramp up this bull market could easily go on I'm not saying you all could easily go on another four years and what kind of return but when you get to the end and people are in John Templeton's euphoria phase bull markets are born on chasm ISM growing skepticism mature on optimism and dive euphoria when you get to the euphoria phase people won't be worrying so much about when it's going to end but we're not at euphoria yet know we're in the optimism phase we're not too euphoria one of the things that I was talking to Jim about earlier is that bitcoin is like the window pane into a room of euphoria we'll be coming to soon where you can first see the animal spirits coming alive in this bull market we really haven't had animal spirits in this bull market at all a phrase John Maynard Keynes made up a long time ago that animal spirits thing coming alive a little bit like late at night at the party that's just getting going in this as a cameo example looking into it but it says people are ready to have euphoria we're still in the optimism phase the you know bull markets die if you foria because beer markets start on you for you bear markets kind of are born on euphoria they drift on grinding economics they accelerate on recession and they die on panic I didn't get John dump one had ever been asked about that that's what he thought that's the line he would have used but they're born on euphoria and that euphoria means you don't worry about the things you're worried about in earlier years you forget about them new highs being scary people forget about it and euphoria the markets p/e is too high people forget about it and euphoria ones it all gonna end it's not gonna end I can see forever all right you brought up Bitcoin not me so I have to ask you though what do you say to those people who are in Bitcoin right now I say I don't know anything about Bitcoin I don't know a bit about it it's not a coin it's a thing and if you really believe you know what's gonna happen with Bitcoin you don't need any advice for me at all about anything and if you think you do and you're wrong you're not gonna take any advice from me no matter what anyway so what difference does it make what I would have because I don't really know how to value Bitcoin risk to the market and I don't have to be a Bitcoin to succeed in life right nobody has to do anything to succeed in life really if you talk about any single thing Bitcoin as you know is something that's a lot like one big stock the fact of the matter is there is no one big stock anybody has to know let's talk about risks to the market in 2018 and beyond what do you see on the horizon geopolitical wise political wise I mean how should people factor in the possibility of some sort of big correction well a big correction normally defined as a drop bigger than 10% but less than 20% in the broad market can come at any time for any reason or no reason you don't need a causal factor you just need a while story and that could happen at any point in time and I don't think people should try to time correction because they come and go pretty darn fast I mean three four months and they're over with so if you miss some within a bull market you're fine what you're really talking about is a bear market and the thing that would knock us asunder from Templeton's euphoria world would be something like unintended consequences of massive proportions in something like method two where the regulatory feature stops fundamental global trade if you take for example our 75 plus trillion dollar global GDP you need a couple of trillion dollars a big bad new that hasn't been pre priced to turn an otherwise global expansion into a recession that reality of a couple of trillion dollars a big bad new that hasn't been pre priced that's a it happens sometimes but it's a tall order and in that tall order you've got this potential problem where it's got a stop trade so for people always fear things like Wars you had a world war you're gonna have that dilemma you're talking about if you have a regional conflict you never do because global trade goes on around it I mean the his we have a lot a lot a lot of regional wars in history and we have a lot of stock market history you can pair them up and see what happened before during and after the regional war and the answer is markets treat them like at most a little minor speed bump they don't even think about them they just blow right on through them because global trade continues around them on the water in the air I'm glad you brought up my food too because that goes into effect in 2018 how does that affect your outlook on European banks especially if you're someone like you said who likes overseas stocks so let me be real clear on this it's the unintended consequence that would get you not the intended consequence the intended consequence is Western priced in intended consequences what we all know about talk about debate and therefore is pre priced into the market it's the part where it doesn't end up working the way people thought it would work so let me give you an example from the last cycle FAs 157 and ISB 157 the mark-to-market accounting rules wipe two trillion bucks off a bank balance sheets was a huge negative that nobody really saw coming at them I didn't see it at the time people just didn't see this unintended consequence it started in November of 2007 and was eliminated by the SEC I can't remember three weeks before or three weeks after the bottom in 2009 and the whole time it's causing Bank write downs but bank write downs in this in the middle of 2008 I tried to figure out why would the bank's forced to take all these write downs with no actual market transactions and it was FAs 157 that was doing it by the time I figured it out I conclude it was too late to try to sidestep it but be that as it may my point being a couple of trillion bucks of unintended consequences because a reg doesn't work the way people think it'll work that could be catastrophic I want to shift and talk about your retirement advice people are walking into their my best advice is don't do it well but when it comes to financial advisers what questions should people be asking in 2018 so I think the most important feature singularly for most people is trying to figure out if the advisor is capable of getting them to take care of their long-term primary purposes and most people in my opinion tend as they age to become way too conservative once upon a time the average person worked till 65 and died at 70 and therefore they had a five year time horizon nowadays the average 65 year old is going to live another 20 years and half of them are gonna live longer and if you've got that 20 to 30 to 35 year time horizon the 65 year old with the 55 year old wife and the monies to take care of the second to die you likely have a 35 year time horizon for that second to die and you really need to see through that long time horizon get your money there most people underestimate their time horizon so you need an advisor that can help you figure that out and get you on a plan that gets you to that very long-term orientation which usually involves what the investor thinks of as more risk than they wanted to take because what most people want to do is be comfortable and not worry but in reality comforts a very dangerous thing if you've got a long long time ahead of you well and for young people like me I mean we're going to need to save well beyond are hundreds right people are living longer well and the other feature of course is I did a column in USA Today on this just a couple weeks ago people don't understand Social Security right because it's really not like so many things people always argue this with me and they're always wrong they always think it's like there's actually money that they've put aside that's invested someplace to then come back to them that it's theirs in fact it's a governmental pay-as-you-go system and at some point in time when it's in Congress's best interest to so do which is the conflict between Millennials and baby boomers at a point in time as the baby boomers are aging and the Millennials are in prime earning power that we're gonna change all the rules about this and in fact anybody that's relying on Social Security when they're young you forget about it I mean old people will be ok because they'll still be devoting power of the moment of the baby-boomers but once you get past the baby boomers this thing's going away and you better have saved for yourself so any tips for young people on how to sort of craft a portfolio that can withstand all those years well mind you people tend to be too myopic and the most important thing to remember is that in the long term when you've got a really long time horizon and you're looking at liquid asset classes and you don't know a lot that other people don't know which is almost everyone keep it straight down the middle simple in stocks because stocks have a higher long-term return than bonds or cash because you're adjusting for business becoming innovative and doing new things and adapting to reality as technology changes and in that process in that sweep you get a higher return with equities in the long term and you don't want to try to be too cute you don't want to try to be time in the market when you're young to do all the stuff that a market person would do you got to go back to the fundamental concept in finance theory which is very very basic that to make a profitable trades you need to know something other people don't know somehow some way that's very hard to do and for the average young person who's busy working and in family formation stage and doing all the things that's normal and age-appropriate for young people to do in their 20s and 30s and what-have-you trying to figure out how you know something other people don't know in the market you all you got is a guess about the same things everybody else knows which is a sucker's game in finance theory and in reality so you just play it straight down the middle all right important information from Ken Fisher always great having you great to be with you scout always
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