저자: Marko · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 'The world has gone mad and the system is broken' 글을 소개하며, 저금리·부채 확대와 자산가격 상승, 연금·건강보험 부담이 자본주의 시스템의 지속 불가능성을 보여준다는 진행자의 문제의식을 전달하는 영상. [달리오 글 요지: 무료 돈과 저금리] 신용도 높은 차입자에게 돈이 사실상 무료에 가깝고 금리는 낮거나 마이너스다. 중앙은행의 자산매입으로 투자자에게 막대한 자금이 밀려들고 있다. [자산가격과 기대수익] 투자자들이 돈을 쓰기보다 투자하면서 금융자산 가격은 크게 올랐고 향후 기대수익은 낮아졌다. 이 현상은 채권뿐 아니라 주식, 사모펀드, 벤처캐피털에도 해당한다. [무수익 기업 상장 증가] 2009~2016년 수익 미실현 IPO는 연 6~8개였으나 2018년에는 15개로 늘었다. 진행자는 닷컴버블과 비교하며 과열 신호로 해석한다. [정부 부채와 금리] 정부 적자는 크게 늘어날 것이며 금리가 오르면 과도하게 레버리지된 세계 시장과 경제에 충격이 크다. 중앙은행이 찍은 돈으로 국채를 떠안을 가능성이 높다. [연금·건강보험 부담] 다수 연금 기금은 연 7% 수준의 가정 수익률을 전제하나 시장 기대수익은 이보다 낮아 의무 이행이 어려울 수 있다. 베이비붐 세대 고령화로 건강보험 재원도 부족하다. [해법과 부의 격차] 증세, 급여 삭감, 화폐 발행 중 화폐 발행이 가장 쉬운 길이며 자산가격 상승을 부른다. 부의 격차와 정치적 갈등이 심해지고, 부자들은 세금 부담이 낮은 곳으로 이동할 수 있다. [진행자 의견] 달리오 글이 정치·금융·경제 시스템의 문제를 잘 짚었다고 평가한다. 진행자는 시장 순수성은 옹호하지만 크로니 캐피털리즘과 부패는 반대한다고 밝힌다. [종목·자산 방향 언급] 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
hey everybody welcome back to whiteboard finance my name is Marco and I'm here to help you master your money and build your wealth in today's video I'm actually gonna talk about a breaking article that was written about 12 hours ago by Ray Dalio Ray Dalio is one of the founders of Bridgewater associates Bridgewater is essentially one of the biggest hedge funds in the world they managed tons of money for tons of wealthy people and this article it's called the world has gone mad and the system is broken so that's why I'm kind of keeping the subject here called Dalio speaks and he's pretty much eloquently summarized what some of the issues are going on with the world financial economic and political system going on right now and this is a must watch video and this is a must share video so without further ado I'm gonna go into the article right now I'm gonna actually read it for you and then we're gonna go over key points that I've highlighted that I want to kind of dissect and give my own opinion on with a big question at the end of the video so without further ado let's get right into it so I typically start my mornings with breakfast today I had bacon and eggs and I go on LinkedIn I go on other news sources I go on a million different things just to get caught up for the day and see what's going on so I came upon this article right here that I'm gonna share by Ray Dalio as I mentioned in the intro of this video the world has gone mad and the system is broken so Ray Dalio as I mentioned in the beginning of this video is pretty much as you can see here the co chief investment officer and co-chairman of Bridgewater associates Bridgewater associates like I said is one of the biggest hedge funds in the world so Ray Dalio he posed somebody once in a while so when he posts I definitely read it and this was posted about 12 to 13 hours ago and I'm gonna go through and actually pretty much go through this entire article here and read it because you guys need to absolutely learn this and it just gives you a different idea of what's going on in the world and I think that Ray does a great job of echoing what a lot of people or what a lot of people or investors are have been thinking about over the past five 10 years so let's get right into it so Ray Dalio the title is called the world has gone mad and the system is broken and he says this be cuz money is free for those who are credit worthy because the investors who are giving it to them are willing to give back less than they give more specifically investors lending to those who are credit worthy will accept very low or negative interest rates so in my last video about the Fed injecting two hundred and eleven billion dollars they keep cutting rates as I mentioned at the end of that video which just happened again after that video was posted and won't require having their principal paid back for the foreseeable future they're doing this because they have an enormous amount of money to invest that has been and continues to be pushed on them by central banks that are buying up financial assets in their futile attempts to push economic activity and inflation up the reason that this money that is being pushed on investors isn't pushing growth and inflation much higher is that the investors who are getting it want to invest it rather than spend it so this second highlight right here want to invest it rather than spend it that's a hundred percent true you guys so the reasons a lot of stocks are going by higher and the reason a lot of stocks are doing well is because companies are taking out cheap debt as Ray is talking about to buy back their own stocks there have been a record number of corporate buybacks buying back their own stocks so what I mean by that just for example I'm not saying this is factually true I'm just saying that's like coca-cola or McDonald's being the biggest purchaser of their stocks all the meantime insider trading or internal trading such as shareholders like c-level executives is definitely super high right now so this dynamic is creating a pushing on a string dynamic that has happened many times before in history though not in our lifetimes and was thoroughly explained in my book principles for navigating big debt crises as a result of this dynamic the prices of financial assets have gone way up and the future expected returns have gone way down while economic growth and inflation remains sluggish this is pretty much what I talked about in that Federal Reserve video that I did you guys they keep cutting rates to stimulate an economy that is perceived to be doing well even though if you peel back layers of the onion you'll see that it's pretty much doing well because of a lot of cheap debt and a lot of cheap money being out there which is which is what ray is saying here in the first place so those big price rises and the resulting low expected returns are not just true for bonds they're equally true for equities private equity and venture capital those these assets low expected returns are not as apparent as they are for bond investments because these equity like investments don't have stated returns the way bonds do as a result their expected returns are left to investors imaginations because investors have so much money to invest and because of past success stories of stocks and of revolutionary tech companies doing so well more companies that at any time since the dot-com bubble don't have to make profits or even have clear path to making profits to sell their stock because they can instead instead to sell their dreams to those investors who are flush with money and borrowing power this is so true you guys take a look at this article by CrunchBase this was in the summer of nineteen unprofitable IPOs are getting bigger so if you look at all the sexy IPOs that came out like lyft Pinterest uber you know all those companies that are not profitable look at this chart right here you guys you can see from 2009 all the way till 2016 there are only about six to eight companies that IPO that weren't profitable if you look at 2018 that number almost doubles to fifteen unprofitable companies going public ok so some of you may be younger some of you may be older but I remember the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s when I was a little kid basically I was watching MTV and there was a I think it was like Daria if you guys if you guys are old enough to remember Daria I forgot what show it was but basically the guy was like oh you want to work for us here here's some stock and he literally took it off of like a paper towel roll he's like here's some stock and I was making fun of like the dot-com bubble so anyway I digress so there is now so much money wanting to buy these dreams that in some cases venture capital investors are pushing money onto startups that don't want more money because they already have more than enough but the investors are threatening to harm these companies by provide enormous support to their start-up competitors if they don't take the money this pushing of money on to investors is understandable because these investment managers especially VC and private equity investment managers now have large piles of committed and uninvested cash that they need to invest in order to meet their promises to their clients and collect their fees so what he means by that is basically say you're a wealthy individual you've given Ray Dalio or whoever you know a bunch of money and you're saying hey you know you promised me well you can't guarantee returns but you said you're gonna make anywhere from 7 to 8 to 10 percent on my money you know where's my money so these asset managers have are sitting on this big pile of cash and they don't know where to put it and that's why they're kind of just being forced into these creative investments I mean look at we were to look at uber look at lyft you know a lot of stuff has been happening lately here so at the same time large government deficits exist and will almost certainly increase substantially so this is something pretty cool if you guys don't know about the US debt clock org I highly suggest you check it out so this thing has been around forever and whoever made this is hilarious this is true all these numbers are pretty much accurate the u.s.
national debt over here on the left side of the screen actually is 23 trillion dollars so at the same time large government deficits exist and will almost certainly increase substantially which will require huge amounts of more debt to be sold by governments amounts that cannot naturally be absorbed without driving up interest rates at a time when an interest rate rise would be devastating for markets and economies because the world is so leveraged long so the reason I highlighted that is because it goes back to my video about the repo markets and they're being liquidity issues so basically what ray is saying is that the government you know they keep cutting rates because the world is so leveraged that if they raise the rates a lot of those things would pop a lot of people default on their loans kind of like what happened in o 7 and o 8 with mortgages where will the money come from to buy these bonds and fund these deficits it will almost certainly come from central banks as I made a video about which is this one right here which will buy the debt that is produced with freshly printed money this whole dynamic in which sound finance is being thrown out the window will continue and probably accelerate especially in the reserve currency countries and their currencies for example the US Europe and Japan so if you want to look at the reserve currencies I've pulled up this from Wikipedia it's basically showing who shares the biggest portion of being the world's world currency composition if you will so US dollar makes up 61% of that then you have the euro and then you have the Japanese yen which is what Ray Dalio pretty much just talked about I mean I have my own theories about this why the u.s.
is so high and oil oil is traded in dollars sorry I didn't mean to say that at the same time pension and healthcare liability payments will increasingly becoming due while many of those who are obligated to pay them don't have enough money to meet their obligations so my wife works for a government hospital okay so when they talk about like teachers and nurses and cops and firefighters or whoever these state pensions I'm scared about that because some of them may go bankrupt so I talked to my wife about it you know right now she's obviously still investing into it because it comes out of her paycheck automatically but who knows where that's gonna be 10 15 20 30 years from now so right now many pension funds that have investments that are intended to meet their pension obligations use assumed returns that are agreed to with their regulators they're typically much higher around 7% than the market returns that are built into the pricing and that are likely to be produced as a result many of those who have obligations to deliver the money to pay these pensions are unlikely to have enough money to meet their obligations so those who are recipients of these benefits are expecting these commitments to be adhere to are typically teachers and other government employees who are also being squeezed by budget cuts they are unlikely to quietly accept having their benefits cut while pension obligations at least have some funding most healthcare obligations are funded on a pay-as-you-go basis and because of the shifting demographics and which fewer earners are having to support a larger population of baby boomers needing health care there isn't enough money to fund these obligations either so the reason I highlighted that is because when I worked in commerce for real estate we sold all of our office portfolio we had about 750,000 square feet of office portfolio that I used to lease up and we went we died burst all that and went into our divested all that and went straight into senior living so 10,000 people every day turned 60 years old in the United States there's a fun fact for you since there is enough money to fund these pension and health care obligations there will likely be an ugly battle to determine how much the gap will be bridged by cutting benefits raising taxes and three printing money which would have to be done at the federal level and passed to those at the state level who need it this will exacerbate the wealth gap battle while none of these three paths are good printing money is the easiest path because it is the most hidden way of creating a wealth transfer and it tends to make asset prices rise that's what we're seeing you guys why do you think that why do you think the stock market is an all-time high right now we've been in ten years of pretty much I don't want to say quantitative easing but just printing money that's why houses housing is so expensive that's why stocks are so expensive all these people that like have these investing channels that are like I made a bajillion percent that's awesome so did a lot of people because a high tide raises all ships everyone is doing well right now quote-unquote well so after all debt and other financial obligations that are denominated in the amount of money owed only require the debtors to deliver money because there are no limitations made on the amounts of money that can be printed or the value of that money it is the easiest path the big risk of this path is that it threatens the viability of the three major world reserve currencies is viable store holds of wealth so going back to the dollar the yen in the Euro at the same time if policymakers can't monetize these obligations in the rich / poor battle over how much expenses should be cut and how much taxes should be raised will be much worse as a result rich capitalists will increasingly move to places in which the wealth gaps and conflicts are less severe and government officials in those losing these big tax big tax payers will increasingly and try to find ways to trap them at the same time this is almost over you guys it's pretty much done at the end of this a graph at the same time as money is essentially free for those who have money and creditworthiness it is essentially unavailable to those who don't have money and creditworthiness which continues or which contributes to the rising wealth opportunity and political gaps also contributing to these gaps are the technological advances that investors and the entrepreneurs that I previously mentioned are excited by in the ways I described and also replace workers with machines because the trickle down process of having money at the top trickles down to workers and others by improving their earnings and credit where credit worthiness is not working the system of making capitalism work well for most people is broken this set of circumstances is unsustainable and certainly can no longer be pushed that has been pushed since 2008 that is why I believe that the world is approaching a big paradigm shift and you can see here only in about 12 hours or excuse me this was posted 20 hours ago sorry about that there is 7,000 you know up votes claps and light bulbs and then you have 539 comments so if i refresh this there's plot gonna be a lot more because this is starting to gain traction here 589 okay not even that much so anyway you guys what do you think about this the reason I decided to make a whole video about this article is because I think he touches on a little bit of politics obviously finance and obviously the way the economic system works period you mix that in with pensions in health care and you can see why a lot of people are worried about this economy so with all that being said where do you think this is going and by this I mean just like not human society I don't want to get all like hippy on you especially at 1159 in the morning but basically what do you guys think about capitalism is this an argument for universal basic income I'm not advocating for any of these things because I live in America I'm obviously an entrepreneur so I have some bias towards you know capitalism but at the same time I'm completely against like crony capitalism you know people lobbying to get their special interests met things like that I think the system when it's pure works well however we know that in any system whether it's communism so ilysm capitalism you name it there's always gonna be a form of corruption corruption because humans not most of us but someone who's making decisions inherently tend to be corrupt so what do you guys think about this a little bit of an educational philosophical video please comment down below and let me know what you think also get on the waiting list for my free investing guide this is actually my unbiased objective review of different investing platforms when you read something like this you know it's kind of like scary like should I even be investing but at the same time you know when the when the asset prices do go down sometimes it's some of the best times to get back in so with all that being said thank you so much for watching comment down below and please give the video a like and share this with one friend I think this is a must read article if you stuck around this long thank you so much and have a prosperous day
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