저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현 강세장은 아직 끝이 아니며 마지막 단계에 진입했다고 보지만, 예측 불가능한 충격(wallop)이 없다면 역사상 가장 긴 강세장이 될 것이라는 주장. 강세장 단계론: 존 템플턴의 4단계(비관에서 태어나 회의, 낙관을 거쳐 도취로 끝남)를 인용. 이번 강세장은 2016년 2월 랠리부터 낙관이 지배하기 시작했으며, 아직 도취 단계에는 이르지 않았다고 설명. 단계별 형태: 초기 1/3은 가파르고, 중간은 완만한 횡보, 마지막 1/3은 다시 가파른 구간. 현재는 마지막 1/3 초입으로 판단. 중간의 지루한 저수익 기간이 길수록 마지막 구간도 길어질 것이라고 봄. 리스크: 벽을 타고 오르는 것(wall of worry)과 예측 못한 충격(wallop, 글로벌 GDP를 수조 달러 줄이는 사건) 중 먼저 오는 쪽이 강세장을 결정. 이번에는 wallop이 없을 것이라고 베팅하지만 항상 경계 중이며, 2007~09년 약세장을 겪었기에 같은 일이 연속으로 반복되지는 않을 것으로 봄. 수익률 관점: 통상 강세장 연평균 수익률은 20% 이상이지만, 이번 강세장에서는 그런 해가 드물었음. 올해 S&P 500도 아직 그 수준에 못 미침. 사람들은 올해를 실제보다 크게 느끼지만, 긴 중간 구간 때문에 실제로는 그렇지 않다는 시각. 투자자 심리: 고객과 비고객 모두 신고가와 강한 시장에 대해 두려움을 표한다고 언급하며, 대부분이 이를 잘못 해석한다고 지적.
다듬은 글
[♪♪♪] If you've ever heard me speak or heard other people from the firm speak, you know that we often cite Sir John Templeton's legendary comments that bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die of euphoria, and that this bull market, which started after a very big, long bear market, had people very depressed and very, very pessimistic, leading to a very unusually long and drawn-out and joyless bull market that went on through the pessimism and skepticism phase.
Earlier, Michael made reference to the rally that began in February of last year, 2016, and, really, from our thinking, that really begins the period that starts to see some optimism in the market taking over from the prior dominant period of skepticism. We haven't gotten to the period of euphoria yet, but if you think through this kind of a visual that Michael sort of articulated earlier that shows a first third of a bull market that's relatively steep, a relatively middle flat period, and then, finally, at the end, a steeper period, we're someplace just to your right of the shaded area, where we've started into that final third, we think.
That long, grinding, slow period of below-normal returns is when it's going on impossible to tell how long it will take, but the longer it goes, and, particularly mirroring that first third, the longer the last third's to be. Now, I'd make an amendment to John Templeton's phrase. Another variation of the concept of John Templeton's four-phase model is the age-old saying that bull markets love to climb a wall of worry.
They do climb the wall of worry until you get to euphoria, unless they get hit by what we refer to as a wallop. They get the wall or they get the wallop, whichever comes first. The wallop is a big, bad, terrible thing that no one's foreseen, that kind of comes out of nowhere and knocks a few trillion bucks off of global GDP.
If you get the wallop, you can take a bull market down at any point in time, but you either climb that wall all the way to euphoria, that wall of worry, John Templeton's four-phase model, or you get the wallop. We're gonna bet that we don't get the wallop this time, although we're ever vigilant looking for it, because we got it last time...
in the 2007, '08, '09 bear market, and markets typically don't do the same thing two times in a row. Too many people are fighting the last war for that to happen, but right now we get a lot of fear that we hear from clients, and also from non-clients in the world, about things like new highs and how strong the market's been.
I want to make a couple of points. I think most people get this wrong. Normally in a bull market, the average historic return-- average annual historic return at a bull market-- is a little over 20%. In this bull market, we've had precious few of those years. I'm talking about the U.S. market. And in fact, so far this year, we're not there with the S&P 500.
The fact is, because this has been this long, grinding, joyless bull market until recently, people see this year as sort of bigger than it is, but because the first phase was so long, and that middle grinding phase you see is so long, unless we hit the wallop, that third phase is gonna be long, and as we've said now for several years, this is-- unless we hit that wallop-- gonna be, by a good notch, the longest bull market in history.
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