저자: MichaelIjeh · 외국인
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결론: 엔비디아는 장기 투자자에게는 여전히 좋은 주식이나, 현재 과대평가 상태라 중기(1~2년) 투자에는 적합하지 않다고 본다. 기업 개요와 성장성 엔비디아는 프로세서(GPU) 기업이지만 핵심은 게임, 클라우드, 빅데이터, 자율주행(테슬라, 우버, 폭스바겐 협력) 등 핫한 산업 전반에 걸쳐 있다는 점이다. 재무 지표와 경쟁 구도 ROIC는 40~60%로 매우 높고, 성장률도 뛰어나다. 주요 경쟁사는 규모가 작은 AMD이며, 인텔과도 일부 영역에서 경쟁하나 엔비디아가 계약을 대부분 따내는 선두주자라고 평가한다. 자금 흐름과 수급 리스크 최근 2년 이상 분기마다 자금이 유입되기보다 유출되는 negative money flow가 지속되었다. 이는 주가가 주로 시장 호황에 의해 밀려 올라간 것으로 보이며, 시장이 꺾이면 매수 세력이 부족해 하락 위험이 크다고 판단한다. 밸류에이션 2년간 약 700% 상승으로 이미 과열 상태이며, 기업 자체는 훌륭하지만 주가는 과대평가되어 있다고 본다. 투자 기간별 전략 단기 투자자: 추세 추종 시 약 5~6% 트레일링 스톱을 설정해 하락 시 자동 청산. 장기 투자자(3~5년 이상): 현 수준에서 보유하면 주가가 2배 이상 될 수 있다고 전망. 중기 투자자(1~2년): 상승 여력은 부족하고 하락 가능성이 커 매력이 낮다고 평가. 리스크 요인 시장 및 경기 악화 시 수급 공백으로 급락 가능성, 과도한 밸류에이션 부담. 출연자 전망 진행자 본인은 장기 관점에서는 긍정적, 중기 관점에서는 부정적 입장이며 단기 전략으로는 트레일링 스톱을 제시.
다듬은 글
by the end of this video you have all the tools you need to make a call on the video are you too late to the party or is it just getting started how's it going world my name is michael ej helping you reach your financial goals and dreams by becoming the best investor you can be if you're new to the channel how's it going on this channel mainly talking about the stock market but mainly about how to be different to them in the market cuz to me if you want to beat the market you must be different the market so if you want differentiated advice make sure to subscribe like the video and let's get started now in the video and the video in the video I mean I've been reading about this stuff for some time now over the past couple of months it's one of the hottest stocks out there return over 100 percent last year and really over seven hundred percent like in the past two or three years I mean this stock has been ran up what makes the video so special why everybody talks about this company why is it such a big deal technology name mainly processing units but it's not what they do it's where they're operating I think that's really driving the stock price from the video they are in all of the hot industries all the hottest ones and you can think of that includes video gaming maybe with eSports and includes the cloud and includes big data drives those cars they work closely with Tesla they're part of the cloud artificial intelligence they're at all they are there and everything Barun absolutely everything to me I mean that's phenomenal one of the coolest companies I've ever seen now this was the late 90s in the tech bubble and you see a company that's connected to all these hot industries you're probably lucky to see if the company makes any profits at all but that's not the case with NVIDIA but in the video they are amazing quality and amazing growth I mean it's one of the best combinations I think I've ever seen in that they have returns on invested capital of 40 50 60 % I mean they put in a dollar and they get a lot coming back to them after reinvesting in the business and they're reinvesting a lot in the right things part that is they have relatively weak competition we have one main competitor AMD that's smaller and they have a large compared their in Intel that in the same spaces but not really so hey I mean the video and they're the videos win all the contracts they're the front-runner and everything they're the leader take for example the driverless cars just announced that they're gonna be working with uber and Volkswagen to continue creating technology for driverless cars that develop me the thing about it is Oberon Volkswagen they're just two of over 300 partners working on the same theme Whitnall yeah I'm they are ahead of it all and we are extremely profitable growing at a very fast clip I understand why Wall Street and everybody else is in love with this company absolutely in love with this company they're the most talked-about company but I did find something shocking negative money flows with the stock there's a lot more money coming out of the stock than going into it and that's been happening for like the past two plus years there's always been quarter after quarter after quarter more money comes out then what goes in very shocking to find out usually in this type of situation there's it'll be the opposite way this is something that I found with Facebook and Amazon you know a lot of other technology names are most talked about usually as more money coming in than going out the video is the opposite which means the stock price has really been driven by the height so as long as the market and the economy could seem to do well the video is gonna do well soon as the market turns because there's not enough buyers the buoy to stock not enough um not enough money behind the stock the buoy just to make sure that it doesn't just fall flat on its face I mean the stock price might go down but it'll slightly recover know if things get bad the video is gonna fall I mean just if they ever gets bad so to me and most importantly most important before I even get there the videos overvalued I mean they're an amazing company they're doing amazing things but they're slightly over value today I mean you have seven hundred percent price appreciation in two years I don't care how great your growth is that's a lot of appreciation to overcome so I still think the company is great and I actually think because of the great prospects if you're a longer term investor look in the hole for three four five years the stock can probably double in that time again if not more and that's when it's really worth it the video to me is going back to my time horizon video it's really a short-term play or a long-term play you're really gonna invest in this company cuz of the momentum it maybe put a trailing stop loss of about five six percent so you ride it up but as soon as things start to really crater you'll automatically exit the stock or you're a true believer in the video you really what to call me in the loan term if that's you buy it and hold on to it for the next four to five years and just see what happens in that time the market may turn it's okay cuz the video will bounce back it is one of the best companies I think I've ever seen looking at the financials I mean it's phenomenal absolutely phenomenal what they're able to pull off so keep that in mind if you're going to stay short term or of your really long term this is still a good stock but if you're in the middle middle term maybe one invest for one or two years this is not the one it's not the one it's not enough upside there's a lot of downside potential this this is just not the one and there's no money to help you there's no institutional support to really help there's the case things get rocky during that time that's all I have for this quick video on the video let me know your thoughts let me know what you think about this stock for the hottest ones out there name is Michael AJ continue to bring you different tips and tricks how can you become the best investing you can be when you read your financial goals and dreams I'll see you at the next one peace
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