저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
집중투자는 고위험·고수익이며 과도한 분산도 위험을 가린다는 점을 지적한다. 회사 직원이라 잘 안다고 집중하는 것은 실수가 흔하며, CEO·COO·CFO처럼 통제권이 있거나 Munger처럼 통제자 옆에서 함께하는 경우에만 집중이 정당화될 수 있다. 진짜 분산은 종목 수가 아니라 서로 반대로 움직이는 자산(잘될 것 같은 것과 안 될 것 같은 것)을 섞는 데서 나온다고 설명한다. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
always own stuff that you think will do well spread across all kinds of stuff in not too bigger sizes but also own some stuff that you think will do badly except you say think would do badly why would I want to own something I think would do badly each month I take a one of the many short uh chapters couple page chapters out of uh my debunkery book uh to debunk some common concept and this this month I'm going to talk about concentration portfolios now everybody's heard lines that are like don't put all your eggs in one basket uh never own more than x% of your portfolio in one stock um you get rich by concentrating your portfolio but you can also go broke by concent trading your portfolio these are all broad statements that have some truth and some justruth to them but there's a couple of things we can say generally concentrating your portfolio is a high-risk High return activity because generally you never really know that much about these companies to be sure about what will happen if you had I'm making this up eight stocks in your portfolio you could potentially make a lot of money you could potentially lose a lot of money or anything in between so it increases the risk that you don't get to where you need to go to for the potential opportunity of hitting big at the risk of going home and you know that intuitively on the other hand you hear people and correctly say that you can way over diversify and many people do in fact usually over diversification also does not accomplish the goal of diversification which is to reduce risk but becomes a more complicated portfolio where you don't actually see a lot of the Hidden risks and all of the different things that you own and risk in a way gets out of control but I don't want to talk about a couple of variant of this that are in the book that people don't think they one way that people make a mistake all the time is say yeah but I'm investing in the company that I work for I know it I I've been there for eight years and I know this company really well yeah maybe but you don't control the company and the fact of the matter is all kind of people in life have done that and had the exact same experience of hitp or go home the most famous examples of that have been the ones where companies have actually imploded out of nowhere like Enron did almost quarter century ago through the fraud but the fact of the matter is said simply you think you know it but stuff happens now where that changes and I turn that on his head is let's say you're the CEO or maybe the President Chief Operating Officer or maybe the Chief Financial Officer right at the very top then you actually have powers particularly if you're the CEO that are effectively like control and then maybe concentrating is perfectly okay and in fact an awful lot of the people in the world that become the very richest got there exactly that way running a company being invested in the company and controlling the company because control is different than I think I know because when I think I know but I don't control he or she who controls can actually screw it up and it doesn't take that long and it doesn't need to go bankrupt like Enron did it could just lose most of its value and hurt you but also you can extend that concept a little bit instead of being the CEO or the Chief Operating Officer or the CFO Chief Financial Officer you could think about it a slightly different way in my 10 roads to Rich's book I talked about what I call ride alongs the an archetypal example of a ride along that I cited then was legendary Charlie Munger recently passed away great guy who was a ride along to Warren Buffett number two supportive always Buffett got the big ego Strokes Munger was always Mr support Munger had different ideas counterbalanced Buffett's views uh they worked well together and while he didn't become as wealthy as Warren Buffett he certainly became a very prosperous billionaire by riding along in that position right next to control again a perfect place to concentrate but off on the other side of the coin you want to think about what portfolio theory is supposed to be about what portfolio theory is supposed to be about is true diversification and what true diversification is all about is not oh I'm going to own 100 stocks or 50 stocks or some specified number of stocks it does include don't own too much in any one stock but it's this part that Harry marwitz in 1951 shortly after I've been born laid out as the right way to think about portfolio construction which is rarely implemented correctly but can be which is always own stuff that you think will do well spread across all kinds of stuff in not too big of sizes but also own some stuff that you think will do badly except you think would do badly why would I want to own something I think would do badly you want to own things you think will do badly but if and only if if the things you do think will do really well end up not doing well and the features that would cause them to not do well will make those who expect to do badly do really well that makes a portfolio that's locked together and zigs and zags more gently relative to the turbulence in the real world because they co-vary the parts co-vary against each other if your portfolio is mostly the things you think you do really well and you're right you're going to do just fine and those other laggards bring down your return a little but not that much and yet on the other hand if those things you think will do well do really badly but it's set up so that these will be the ones that do really well if those things do really badly you never get killed relative to the market and that's an important structure in terms of diversification and an important way to think about what's the right amount of concentration you can do that with 2 3 four 5% positions across your portfolio that dominates the number of stocks you have and think of how they move against each other not just what you think about whether they'll do well or badly thank you very much for listening to me I very much hope you enjoyed this video as part of my series on debunking Common Market myths to watch more videos like this click the link on the screen and make sure to subscribe to Fisher Investments YouTube channel thanks so much for listening to me
Comments 0