저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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시장 비관론이 극에 달해 있고, 비관이 깨지면 거대 랠리가 올 수 있으나 장기 약세장 말기의 마지막 랠리일 가능성이 크다고 주장. 채권은 버블, 부동산과 일부 주식도 문제, 실물자산(은·밀 등)만 상대적으로 저렴하다고 봄. 2008년 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증해 다음 침체는 본인 생애 최악일 것이라 경고하고, 중앙은행은 결국 돈을 찍어 대응할 것이라 전망. 자신이 아는 분야에 집중하는 장기 투자 원칙 강조.
다듬은 글
in his candid assessment of the current Financial landscape renowned investors Jim Rogers reflects on the prevailing pessimism and the potential for a significant Market shift drawing from his wealth of experience he warns of the historical patterns that often accompany periods of extreme optimism and offers insights into where opportunities May lie you know there's been a lot of pessimism around as you well know uh and in my experience when there's huge amounts of pessimism usually some happens to break the pessimism we we've had it in the last couple of weeks because people the Federal Reserve has talked about well maybe we're not so not going to be so tough or whatever it is or something often happens to break the pessimism you have a big wave of optimism and a gigantic rally gigantic rallies have often happened at the end of of poor markets or the beginning of bare markets so we may well have another gigantic rally but that would probably be the last one if you ask me usually at the end of a long B market when you have a gigantic rally at the end it's usually the end I mean if you can remember NASDAQ at the end of 1999 and two I mean it's skyrocketed something doubled in six months or something or justed we were about to collapse this is the way markets work fortunately or unfortunately so I I just want to point out when you have a lot of pessimism start thinking about going to the other side for a while the end of the 1999 2000 with that beginning of that bare Market it skyrocketed there at the end after a long secular B market and then it would it everybody thought happy days are here again this is going to go on forever an interesting side like in 1999 I think that was the exact year the Wall Street Journal Wall Street Journal I mean not some neighborhood newspaper started using with capital letters that words the expression the new economy capital n capital E this is the way they The Wall Street Journal referred to the world you know it didn't it took them a while but eventually they stopped capitalizing new economy but that's how things get in Long bull markets that's how Wild they get and that last gasp as we were discussing before can be wildly exciting if you're on the right side you know bonds are certainly in a bubble they're not going to be in a bull market for decades property is going to have problems as we've discussed many stocks have been a bubble the only thing that's still cheap are real assets and if they print money when they print money it leads to some things going higher but those are usually silver wheat you know real assets price of sugar is down 70% from its all-time high that's not a bubble Jim Rogers observations shed light on the delicate balance between monetary stimulus and the looming debt crisis his call for caution amidst potential Market exuberance is a timely reminder of the risks associated with prolonged artificial stimulation the price of silver is down 70% from its all time those are not bubble kind of numbers so the only thing that is cheap that I know of I mean yes there's property some places yes blah blah but but the only thing as a Class A real assets and they do go up when there's a lot of money Printing and so I if people know about real assets maybe they should shoot more research and homework and maybe that's a way to protect yourself some stocks will go up too I mean you know the Hot Shots the Hot Shot stocks will go up again for a while yes everybody will rush in and say hooray happy days are here again Amazon will go through the roof for a while you know Ken Cent will go through the roof for a while but in the end usually for a while you have a bull market in real assets and for those who know what they're doing be prepared only invest in what you know about if you want to be successful stay with what you know everybody watching this show knows a lot about something whether it's fashion or cars or Sports boards or something stay with what you know if you want to be successful if I told you you can have 25 investments in your life you wouldn't jump in and out of every Hot Shot you hear on a program or somewhere in the newspaper and you would be a successful investor but many people will say but that's boring be boring want to be a successful investor be boring don't go down to the bar on Saturday night yelling about how much Amazon you own or whatever it is be boring go down to the bar on Saturday night and let them all say oh my God there's that guy again talk me about his boring boring stocks be boring if you want to be successful the current assessment is as you know we had a big problem in 2008 or so and then central banks and governments around the world started Printing and spending and borrowing money like never in recorded history so if you give me a few trillion dollars I'll show you a very good time I mean you know the world economy has been flooded with money and spending uh since then America has never gone so deeply in debt so fast um as we have done in the last decade more than a decade now 13 years so yes we're all floating on a bit artificial stimulation it always comes to an end no matter how much you you pump into the economy it seems to be coming to an end inflation is coming back which leads to higher interest rate and some people are starting to say wait a minute this is too much debt this is absurd not everybody I mean the Japanese are still doing it but some people are starting to question how much more we can do so I'm not sure if the world has come to an end yet but I do know it's going to come to an end eventually in the form of another markam and you remember 2008 we had a big problem because of too much debt well Adam look out the window since 2009 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed the world has never seen anything like this accumulation of increase in debt Jim Rogers sobering perspective on the Relentless rise of global debt serves as a stark warning as we contemplate the potential severity of the next bare Market his insight into the implications for Central Bank actions and the need for prudent investment choices resonates strongly so the next B Market has to be the worst in my lifetime I mean it's simple arithmetic the debt is skyrocketed everywhere it's going to lead to a problem someday and maybe today is someday or maybe it's already in process given that the people in the Federal Reserve are not very smart people you know they're academics and bureaucrats they mainly want to keep their job what they will do U at the first sign of some some good news and it may already be here they will start talking about and even acting on slowing down it sounds like they're going to slow down for a while because they think things are better uh and they may be at least on paper but eventually ad don't they're going to print money till we run out of trees that's what all they know um if there start to be a lot of bankruptcy or even a few bankruptcies they will get phone calls from people saying You must save us this is a matter of Western Civilization you must save us they will panic and they will print more money I don't think that in the history of the world many central banks have said too bad guys it's time for a lot of bankruptcies go down the tubes that's not the way bureaucrats think that's not the way academics think and the end result will be not good for you and me but it might temporarily save their jobs we will have recessions again in the world and the next one has to be very bad as I explained 2008 was a nightm for many of us or many people since then the debt has gone up by astonishing amounts you cited some numbers before pick any numbers you want they're terrifying and it's continuing to get worse every day so the next time we have a problem I mean Adam it's just simple audition uh look out the window the dead is skyrocketing everywhere so the next problem has to be very very bad it'll be the worst in my lifetime and I'm older than you so it'll be the worst in your lifetime too I didn't say it' be the worst in the world the worst in history or anything like that I just said it my lifetime if there's good news on the horizon or starts happening it's a to the central banks hey we can ease up we don't have to be so bad for a while and that makes many people in the markets more enthusiastic and more confident and we have big rallies Jim Rogers insights serve as a stark reminder of the cyclical nature of financial markets and the impact of unprecedented levels of debt as investors navigate uncertain times his advice to stay grounded in one's expertise and the potential for a final explosive rally in real assets underscores the need for vigilance and a prudent approach to investment in an Ever evolving global economy
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