저자: LarkDavis/인용:RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
Lark Davis는 Ray Dalio의 '빅 사이클' 이론을 인용해 미국이 부채 증가·외국인 채권 수요 약화·중앙은행 화폐 발행(QE) 단계에 있다고 주장한다. 달러 기축통화 지위 상실과 사회적 갈등 위험을 경고하며, 현재 형태의 미국 패권은 약 10년 남았다고 본다. 이에 대비해 비트코인·이더리움·금·은 분산, 해외 자산, 이민·시민권 취득 등을 제시한다. 영상 중 암호화폐 뉴스레터 홍보 및 여권 구매 관련 언급이 포함된다. 구체적 자산 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
Ladies and gentlemen, the US dollar, the US empire, it's in big trouble and there's a very real risk that the currency and the larger US political system could collapse a heck of a lot sooner than you think. Don't believe me? Oh, old Lark's just out here dishing out the doom and gloom again for the clicks, right?
I know, I've heard it all before. What if I told you that this isn't coming from old Larco here, but instead from one of the most successful investors in the world, the founder of the world's largest and most successful hedge fund. That's right, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates has been sounding the alarm for the last three years stating that the US dollar is at a breaking point and that the risk of a major civil or international conflict involving the United States is increasing all the time.
Whoa, heavy stuff, Ray. Heavy stuff. Come on, man. So, in today's video, let's break down exactly what Ray Dalio is thinking, the reasoning behind what he is claiming, and what you can start doing now to protect yourself and your family from the worst possible outcomes. So, let's start off with a quick overview of Ray Dalio, the man behind the story.
Because the more we know about his background, his way of thinking, his experience, the more seriously I think we can take his warnings. So, with an MBA from Harvard, Ray Dalio founded his own hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, at the ripe old age of 25. But, Dalio didn't come from money as he was raised in a typical middle-class family.
In fact, Bridgewater's first office was actually Dalio's two-bedroom apartment. Well, come on, that's a rags-to-riches story if I've ever heard one. Look, long story short, over the course of 30 years, Ray Dalio built the company from nothing into the world's largest hedge fund. Fast forward to today.
Bridgewater manages $125 billion in assets, mostly for, you know, boring stuff, pension funds, endowments, foreign governments, sovereign wealth funds, central banks, crap like that, right? But, that's a lot of money nevertheless. Now, what's interesting what's interesting here about Dalio for today's topic is that he's a global macro investor, meaning that Ray Dalio takes a broad investment perspective, which accounts for economics, global fiscal and monetary issues, and social, political, and technological trends.
Stuff we should all be paying attention to as investors, right? Okay, that's right. So, what's he say about the US and the US dollar specifically? Well, check this out. Starting with his broadest perspective, Ray Dalio believes empires and their currencies, they rise and fall in a cyclical pattern. History proves this out.
He calls this the big cycle and here it is. Take a moment. Take a moment. Look at this and see if you can guess where the US empire is at right now. It's scary, isn't it? Now, according to Dalio, what's he thinking? If you guessed that we are at the printing money and credit stage, well, then bingo, bingo, bingo.
Winner, winner, chicken dinner because you would be correct. Here's Ray Dalio's idea again, just more detailed. And what do you notice happens to most empires next after this printing of money and credit stage? That's right, the loss of the reserve currency status and war. Will the USA be an exception to this historical cycle?
Uh, probably not. Ray Dalio, check this out. He's on CNBC six months ago describing in the most PC way possible for their audience the conditions that he's currently seeing in the USA. Have a listen. The longer term is that we are at a point in which we are borrowing money to pay debt service. And there is a process by which when you keep having debt growth faster than income growth, then that means that you have debt service encroaching on your spending.
That's the same for the government as it is for us. And as that happens and you want to keep spending at the same level, there is the need to get more and more into debt. And the way that works, it's like that accelerates. We are at the point of that acceleration, which creates the supply-demand problem.
And it's made worse by the other issues that we're talking about. The internal political issue, the internal social conflict issue is something that is affecting foreign demand for for bonds. About 40% of our debt is sold to foreigners. And so, there is a concern of the American politics, of the controlling of this debt crisis, and these types of things.
Okay, so Dalio's main point is that the USA is in the midst of a process called debt creation and monetiz- monetization. Now, here he is again describing that process in detail. Time and time and again, the clearest indicators of when a fiat currency is going to decline into collapse is when those are holding its debt sell the debt and the government, central bank, has to print money to buy that debt in large size while that's going down.
Those are the most important indicators. So, that you can see it. Again, I want to repeat, selling the debt so that there's a big supply-demand imbalance and the central bank having to come in there and buy the debt that no one else will buy in large quantity so that what then there's a currency devaluation.
You have those three things aligned, the currency devaluation going down at the same time as those other two things are happening and that's been a classic. It's like a bank run. They come to the bank, there's not enough money in the bank, and so they have to make up the difference by the printing of money.
Now, does any of that remind you of a a particular country? Any particular country out there, maybe? Maybe. Well, the USA right now is in the middle of this very debt creation and monetization process. First, the country is in debt up to its eyeballs with the payments alone just to service the interest on the debt now being the government's fourth largest expense.
That's insane. 35 trillion in debt, a trillion a year in interest payments. And what for a while now, we've been seeing signs that foreign governments and central banks are becoming increasingly nervous about holding US Treasuries. The world's second largest economy, China. China, guys, China. They have been unloading US bonds since 2014 and buying gold like mad.
And this is happening amidst a larger movement by countries to move away from the US sphere of influence. The BRICS nations are rising up. Together, they make up 37% of the world's GDP to de-dollarize their economies. They're moving in the direction of launching their own potentially gold-backed currency.
Now, as an aside, if you're interested in the BRICS issue specifically, I've got a new video on that. Go check it out. Link in the description. So, from Ray Dalio's point of view, there are emerging signs that more nations could soon start dumping US Treasuries or just simply not buying them anymore.
And that will force the Federal Reserve to print money out of thin air to buy up their own bonds, which is a crazy system. They print the bonds, they print money to buy the bonds. I mean, what is this? This, of course, in turn increase the risks of hyperinflation. This printing of money by a central bank to buy up their own government debt is what is known as quantitative easing or QE.
And I say this to show that the Fed has been engaging in QE since 2008. In order to keep the USA out of a recession, they had to print money. Basically, the Fed has been pressing the gas pretty damn heavily over the last 16 years and they can't keep doing it forever because there will come a point when there's no more gas left in the tank and we are quickly approaching that time.
Okay? Before we continue and talk about what you can do about all this, let me interrupt the flow real quick cuz I want to let you know let to let you know about the best damn newsletter in the cryptocurrency industry. My newsletter is called the Wealth Mastery Investor Report. Every single week, my team of researchers and I are working to bring you the latest and the best insights on everything happening in the market.
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You can join 125,000 plus weekly readers and sign up for free. Use the link in the description. Our readers love it. I'm sure you will, too. Check it out. Back to it. So, Ray Dalio. Ray Dalio also mentioned that internal conflict is often associated with causally causally related to this debt creation and monetization process.
And it's clear to anyone to anyone paying even the vaguest amount of attention that the USA is going through some serious right now. Some real internal strife in America. The extreme wealth and cultural divide, the riots, antifa versus proud boys, January 6th, the criminal prosecution of the current frontrunner for president, the ever-encroaching surveillance state, the endless wars, the talk of civil war, all of this stuff flashing red lights, giant warning signs for Ray Dalio.
Now, the question you're probably asking yourself is, well, when is the really going to hit the fan, Lark? No one knows for certain. I don't have the answer, but Dalio himself thinks that the US is at the tail end of this printing money and credit period and that the 2024 US election will be an extremely risky period for the USA.
Fingers crossed, of course, that things go smoothly this fall. But, if I had to personally place a bet, my best guess is that the US dollar and the US empire has I don't know, at most what, 10 years of massive dominance left in its current form. What I'm not saying the USA is going to go to pieces, but in its current form.
That's where I'm at personally. I don't know. It's all super dark and scary, but knowledge is power. You can stick your head in the sand if you want, but then one day someone's going to show up at your door and they're going to make you pull your head out of the sand. Okay? And sticking your head in the sand is no way to deal with what might be around the corner.
So, let's talk about how you you watching, you personally can protect yourself and your family. And whether you're in the USA or not, this should apply because what happens there can start a shitstorm right around the world. Now, with regards to your money, obviously I think being diversified into Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, maybe some silver, whatever, that offers some great financial protection.
Diversified stock portfolios in different countries outside of the US. Indeed, it seems like the market has already started to price in a larger fiat collapse and political turbulence as Bitcoin is flirting with its all-time highs at the recording time recording this video. Gold at all-time highs and, interestingly, central banks around the world, they have been stacking like crazy gold, gold, gold, especially the BRICS nations.
And even like India returned a hundred billion dollars, I think, of their gold from the UK cuz they don't trust it overseas anymore. Look, if you're living in the USA, here's some ideas. Consider perhaps moving to a smaller, more rural town or community that shares your values cuz when goes down, the cities are not going to be where you're going to want to be.
Look at purchasing land, becoming a bit more self-sustainable. The less you depend on the government, of course, or any kind of larger society for your basic needs, the better you're going to be. And of course, you can also just get the heck out. You don't have to stay. You don't have to stay. Get your passport updated in case you need to make a quick move.
You never know. Get a second citizenship in a different country. Biometrics, uh, El Salvador, that's shaping up to be a pretty interesting option if not too far away from the United States if you want to be close to family. There are many other stable places to live in South America and Asia, other parts of the world.
And look, here's an interesting one you may not know about, but is a very powerful thing. If you have grandparents or even in some cases great-grandparents from countries like Italy, Spain, Ireland, then you might actually be able to get a free, a free second passport via something called citizenship by descent.
Look into it. You never know. You never know. How awesome would that be, right? Just a nice little plan B, just in case, right? Caribbean passports cost about 150 to 200,000 dollars. System's crazy, man. When you realize how dumb everything is, you just go buy passports. Bro, it's nuts. Anyway, awesome things to consider.
Be safe. I know. I know. This is all crazy topic, right? I don't want to see this happen. I don't want the dollar to collapse. I don't want the US em Well, maybe US empire is not a great thing for the world and that's a different conversation, but I don't want the US dollar collapse. That means a lot of pain for a lot of people.
All the social strife. This isn't like I'm sitting here rooting for it like, yes, this is No, that's terrible. It's terrifying, which is why you have to be prepared. You have to be prepared for these things because it is scary. It is terrifying. And when hits the fan, the government's not going to come help you. Quite the opposite. Okay? Thanks for watching.
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